5.3. SR 06-13-2011Elk REQUEST FOR ACTION
diver
TO ITEM NUMBER
Ci Council 5.3.
AGENDA SECTION MEETING DATE PREPARED BY
Worksession une 13, 2011 erem Barnhaxt, Plannin Mana er
ITEM DESCRIPTION REVIEWED B~/
Review Development Scenarios to be Studied in the 1715` Area ustin Femrite, Ci En ~ eer
AUAR REVIEWED BY
Tim Simon, Finance Director
ACTION REQUESTED
Acceptance of the three land use scenarios as proposed by WSB.
BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION
The AUAR process includes applying infrastructure impacts to at least two development scenarios, one
of which needs to be the approved Comprehensive Plan. In response, WSB has prepared three
development scenarios: one based on the Comprehensive Plan, one based on the Focused Area Study
with lower impacts, and one based on the Focused Area Study based on worst case scenario impacts.
The three scenarios are helpfizl to the City Council as they will define a range of likely development
intensity patterns, which will allow for informed infrastructure planning.
Staff has reviewed the development scenarios and recommends acceptance. Scenario 1 is consistent with
the Comprehensive Plan, and Scenarios 2 and 3 axe consistent with the 1715E Land Use study.
FINANCIAL IMPACT
Part of the AUAR project authorized by the Ciry Council on April 4, 2011.
ATTACHMENTS
^ Memo from Kelsey Johnson dated May 20, 2011.
Action Motion by Second by Vote
FOllow Up
N:\Public Bodies\Ciry Council\Council RCA\Agenda Packet\OG-13-2011\AUARdocx
~~~ Infrastructure ^ Engineering ^ Planning ^ Construction
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Technical Memorandum
To: Jeremy Barnhart, Planning Manager
Justin Femrite, P.E., City Engineer
Rebecca Haug, Environmental Administrator
City of Elk River
Copy: Andi Moffatt, Project Manager
From: Kelsey Johnson, Community Planner
Date: May 20, 2011
Re: Land Use Development Scenarios
171St Avenue Area AUAR
City of Elk River, Minnesota
WSB Project No. 1992-00
701 Xenia Avenue South
Suite #300
Minneapolis, MN 55416
Tel: 783 541-4800
Fax: 763 541-1700
Background and Methods
As part of the 'Land Use Development Scenarios' portion of the AUAR, draft development scenarios have
been completed for your review. These scenarios include:
1. 2004 Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Scenario
2. Recommended Focused Area Study (FAST) Concept -Lower Impact Analysis
3. Recommended Focused Area Study (FAST) Concept -Higher Impact Analysis
In each scenario analyzed, anticipated types and intensity (density) of development are presented.
Results
The 1715` Area study area is approximately 243 acres located in the southeast portion of Elk River. The
study area is bound by the Mississippi River to the west with State Highway 10/169 bisecting the study
area running parallel to the river as shown in Figure 5.1. A mixture of office and industrial land uses run
along the northern edge of the study area with high and low density housing and parkland to the
northeast. Majority of the land to the east and south of the project area is owned by Cargill Corporation,
of which about half of the land is currently utilized as agricultural research. The remaining land area is
comprised of wetlands.
The Burlington Northern Sante-Fe rail line borders the study area extending from the northwest to the
southeast, and carries a large number of heavy rail trains each day in addition to the Northstar
commuter train. The Northstar station is located to the north of the study area, and is located
approximately two miles from Downtown Elk River to the northwest.
k:101992-OOOladminldocslscenariosVnemo - 052011 -land use scenarios.doc
Memorandum 171st Avenue Area AUAR
Land Use Development Scenarios
May 20, 2011
Page 2 of 6
Description of Development Scenarios
Existing Conditions
The existing conditions of the approximately 243 acre study area include un-developed
agricultural areas, wetlands, open space, and small areas of light industrial. The acreage of the
existing land cover will be further refined for the AUAR.
Development Scenarios
Minnesota Rules Chapter 4410.3610, Subpart 3 requires that "the Responsible Governmental
Unit (RGU) may specify more than one scenario of anticipated development provided that at
least one scenario is consistent with the adopted comprehensive plan. At least one scenario
must be consistent with any known development plans of property owners within the area."
The 1715Y Area AUAR included the review of three development scenarios.
Scenario 1 (Figure 6.1)
Scenario 1 analyzes the land use allowed under the Comprehensive Plan (2003) based on the
density allowed for each land use. Given the wide range of commercial, retail, office and
business uses that could be accommodated in areas guided for Highway Commercial and Light
Industrial development, a composite FAR of 0.25 will be applied to these areas. The following
table outlines the land uses for this scenario.
Table 6.1: Scenario 1
Land Use Acres
(Gross) Housing Commercial
(units) (sgft) Industrial
(sgft)
Agricultural Research 75
Rural Residential 9 3
Highway Commercial 64 696,960
Light Industrial 82 892,980
Open Space 14
TOTAL 243 3 696,960 892,980
Scenario 2 (Figure 6.2)
Scenario 2 is based on the City's 171St Avenue Focused Area STudy'Future Development
Framework Plan'. This Scenario would require an amendment to the Comprehensive Plan and
Zoning Ordinance. This scenario evaluates the low end of the density ranges (8 units per acre for
High Density Residential). This scenario also evaluates the lower impact range of commercial,
retail, office and business uses that could be accommodated in areas guided for development,
and therefore a composite FAR of 0.25 will be applied to these areas. The following table
outlines the land uses for this scenario.
Memorandum 171st Avenue Area AUAR
Land Use Development Scenarios
May 20, 2011
Page 3 of 6
Table 6.2: Scenario 2
Land Use Acres
(Gross) Housing
(units) Commercial
(sgft) Industrial
(sgft)
High Density Residential 46 368
Job Area 116 1,263,240
Destination Retail 45 490,050
Temporary Destination Retail 20 217,800
Transit Center 8 87,120
Service /Commercial 3 32,670
Open Space 5
TOTAL 243 368 827,640 1,263,240
Scenario 3 (Figure 6.2)
Scenario 3 is based on the City's 17151 Avenue Focused Area STudy'Future Development
Framework Plan'. This Scenario would require an amendment to the Comprehensive Plan and
Zoning Ordinance (mixed use district). This scenario evaluates the high of the density ranges (20
units per acre for High Density Residential). This scenario also evaluates the higher impact end
'worst case scenario' range of commercial, retail, office and business uses that could be
accommodated in areas guided for development, and therefore a composite FAR of 0.35 will be
applied to these areas. The following table outlines the land uses for this scenario.
Table 6.3: Scenario 3
land Use Acres
(Gross) Housing
(units) Commercial
(sgft) Industrial
(sgft]
High Density Residential 46 920
Job Area 116 1,768,536
Destination Retail 45 686,070
Temporary Destination Retail 20 304,920
Transit Center 8 87,120
Service /Commercial 3 45,738
Open Space 5
TOTAL 243 920 1,123,848 1,768,536
Development Assumptions
A discussion of each land use type and the development assumptions associated with each land
use type presented in Tables 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3 is outlined below. The development assumptions
are intended to satisfy guidance from the Environmental Ctuality Board (EQB), which indicates
that the AUAR document should cover the possible impacts through a 'worst case scenario'
analysis or else prevent the impacts through provisions of the mitigation plan. This means that
the residential density assumption used to analyze the development scenarios may be higher
than the actual built density and the assumed intensity of commercial and industrial
development may be more intense than that of future development. Slightly overestimating the
amount of potential development in the AUAR will help to ensure validity of the AUAR for
development projects in the future. If the RGU determines in the future that the project is not
consistent with the AUAR assumptions and mitigation measures, then the AUAR will need to be
Memorandum 171st Avenue Area AUAR
Land Use Development Scenarios
May 20, 2011
Page 4 of 6
amended or a separate environmental analysis (e.g. EAW, AUAR, or EIS) would need to be
completed in accordance with Minnesota Rules Chapter 4410.
Agriculture Research
The purpose of the Agricultural Research land use is to coincide with the agreement between
the City of Elk River and Cargill. This land use allows for the continued use of the property for
animal nutrition and agricultural research and other related activities pursuant to the
agreement, while protecting the City's ability to guide other development in the area.
Rural Residential
Rural Residential area includes land currently developed and guided for future residential
growth as residential uses in the areas that may be served by municipal sewer and water in the
future as guided by the 'urban growth boundary' as shown in the City's Comprehensive Plan. A
small portion along the western portion of the AUAR study area is guided in the Comprehensive
Plan as Rural Residential. A gross density of 0.4 units per acre (1 unit per 2.5 acres) is the target
density in the Rural Residential area. The Comprehensive Plan does allow density bonuses for
developments that achieve certain public objectives such as preserving natural features (which
are not otherwise protected by ordinance), implementing the City's trail and park master plan
(beyond the typical required park dedication) or incorporating energy saving building
techniques.
High Density Residential
The High Density Residential land use category consists of multi-family attached housing
oriented in a vertical fashion, more commonly referred to as apartments and condominiums.
This land use category can accommodate a combination of side by side townhomes and multi-
story buildings (3-4 story buildings). The density target range, as guided in the Comprehensive
Plan, is over 8 and up to 20 units per acre. While 20 units per acre is rather high, an analysis
(Scenario 3) has been performed to include a density assumption based on the 'worst case'
densities allowed in the High Density Residential area.
Community Commercial
The Community Commercial land use focuses on community retail development. These areas, as
described in the City's Comprehensive Plan, are often service and convenience oriented.
Developments in these areas are generally smaller in size and oriented more towards the
neighborhoods. Examples of Community Commercial uses include drug store, hardware store,
and coffee shop often arranged in a "strip mall" configuration. Developments under the
community commercial designation generally consist of less than 100,000 square feet of retail
and professional services. To determine the appropriate Floor Area Ratio (FAR) assumptions for
Community Commercial development within the AUAR, a review of FAR standards and
assumptions was conducted. A range of FARs (0.2-0.5) could be applied to the AUAR
development scenarios. Given the wide range of commercial, retail, office and business uses
that could be accommodated in areas guided for Community Commercial development, a
composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be analyzed in the scenarios for these areas.
Memorandum 171st Avenue Area AUAR
Land Use Development Scenarios
May 20, 2011
Page 5 of 6
Highway Business
The Highway Business land use is the most intensive form of commercial development in Elk
River. Businesses in this category may be the largest both in terms of size and traffic generation.
Market orientation tends to be regional in nature, as described in the Comprehensive Plan.
Examples of Highway Business uses include discount retailers, grocery, and general
merchandise. Highway Business designation are often in excess of 200,000 square feet. Given
the wide range of commercial, retail, office and business uses that could be accommodated in
areas guided for Highway Business development, a composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be
analyzed in the scenarios for these areas.
Light Industrial
The Light Industrial category includes industrial uses that are lower in intensity of activity. These
uses limit the potential for adverse impacts on adjacent land uses due to factors such as noise
and odor. Examples of Light Industrial uses include offices, enclosed storage and warehousing,
research laboratories and light manufacturing. Given the range of light industrial and
warehousing uses that could be accommodated in areas guided for Light Industrial
development, a composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be analyzed in the scenarios for these
areas.
Open Space
The Open Space category contains both public and private park and recreation systems, as well
as wetlands or preserves. These areas will encompass natural features and include visual
amenities. Trails, wildlife habitat, storm water filtration, and view sheds are present in these
areas.
Job Area
The Job Area district is intended to contain 1-3 story buildings with associated surface parking
and contain buildings with multiple uses in combination with Community Commercial, Highway
Business and Light Industrial. The intent is to allow a mixture of commercial and industrial uses
in the district in a manner that is compatible with the surrounding uses within the Transit Center
land use designation as guided in the 1715Y Avenue FAST. These uses include a mixture of office,
retail, and industrial uses. Given the range of uses that could be accommodated in this area, a
composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be analyzed in the scenarios for these areas.
Transit Center
The Transit Center area is envisioned as a vibrant mixed-use district which will include vertical
(2-5 story buildings) mixed-use with ground level retail, office, and industrial uses. In the AUAR
study area, NO residential uses are planned pursuant to the Settlement Agreement between the
City of Elk River and Cargill, Incorporated. Given the range of uses that could be accommodated
in this area, a composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be analyzed in the scenarios for these areas.
Service/Commercial
The Service /Commercial district plans for future development of small professional offices,
small service uses, and retail development in 1-2 story buildings. A number of parcels north of
the AUAR study area along the west side of Highway 10/169 already exist. A small portion of the
study area (roughly 3 acres) will continue to develop in this manner. Given the range of uses
Memorandum 171st Avenue Area AUAR
Land Use Development Scenarios
May 20, 2011
Page 6 of 6
that could be accommodated, and the fact that much of the service /commercial uses are
generally small in area than those found in other categories, a composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35
will be analyzed in the scenarios for these areas.
Destination Retail
This district responds to considerations for the future interchange along Highway 10/169 as
mentioned in the 171St Avenue Focused Area Study. The Destination Retail area suggests a large
area of highway commercial land use typically seen in 1-2 story buildings. Areas west of Highway
10/169 are suited for larger commercial users, while areas east of Highway 10/169 are suited for
areas of retail and office use. Projected land use area within this district was calculated as part
of the FAST study and a composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be analyzed in the scenarios for
these areas.
Temporary Destination Retail
The small area (approximately 18 acres) along the east side of Highway 10/169 is designated as
Temporary Destination Retail. This area falls within the future right of way for the interchanges
and as a result, the city must balance the level of near-term public infrastructure and private
investments, knowing that the future interchange will be built. Mixtures of retail and office uses
in 1 story buildings are expected here, and the projected land use area within this district was
calculated as part of the FAST study and a composite FAR of 0.25 and 0.35 will be analyzed in
the scenarios for these areas.
Recommendations
It is important to clearly define the scenarios at this point in the AUAR process as all further environmental
analysis will use these scenarios and the density assumptions. Making changes to these assumptions now
will be much easier and keep the project on schedule. At this time we are requesting that City Staff review
the proposed land use development scenarios and provide us with feedback if the assumptions made
accurately reflect what should be analyzed in the AUAR.
We would be happy to meet with you or talk over the phone. Please feel free to call Andi Moffatt at 763-
287-7196 or Kelsey Johnson at 763-287-8521 to review these scenarios.
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