ERMUSR MISC ISSUES 07-06-2004 Elk River
Municipal Utilities
13069 Orono Parkway phone: 763.441.2020
Elk River, MN 55330 Fax:763.491.8099
June 28, 2004
To: Elk River Municipal Utilities Commission
Jerry Takle
Jim Tralle
John Dietz
From: Bryan Adams
Subject: Miscellaneous Issues
This time of year our agenda's tend to be light. Your staff is implementing items that
were approved earlier in the year. The budgeting process for 2005 will start in August.
As you can see from the sales report in the financials, electric sales are off due to the mild
temperatures and water sales are off due to the wet weather.
Enclosed is the following information for your review.
1) May 28, 2004 issues of Kiplinger Letter on Energy.
2) June 4, 2004 issue of Kiplinger Letter on Energy.
3) May 24, 2004 issue of Public Power Weekly, addressing Transmission
Congestion.
4) May 2004 issue of Great River News, addressing Power grid and Power
supplies.
5) June 15, 2004 Wall Street Journal titled, "To Conserve Water, China
Lifts It's Prices."
6) June 13, 2004 issue of Tribune titled, "Despite drought, piped in water
still flows quite freely in Phoenix."
7) June 13, 2004 issue of Tribune titled, "Water and the West."
The Kiplinger Letter
FORECASTS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING
1729 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20006-3938 • KiplingerForecasts.com • Vol. 81, No. 22
Dear Client: Washington, May 28, 2004
High energy prices are here to stay. INSIDE THIS LETTER
Global demand will continue to surge
as China and other developing nations gulp oil Power Supply Blackout risks
and natural gas to fuel expanding industries. The Economy Business borrowing
U.S. energy needs are also on a sharp upswing.
Security Fighting ID theft, hackers
ENERGY Supplies are being pushed to the max. Retiree Benefits More trimming
It'll take years to tap new reserves
and to ease refining and delivery bottlenecks. Bush's Agenda June a big month
Oil will remain a top terrorist target, HR Health care, perks,color bias
so prices will include a stiff risk premium,
especially since slim spare capacity makes oil World Business Canada, Mexico
and gas markets supersensitive to disruptions politics Election swing states
from attacks, accidents or routine maintenance.
Consistently higher prices will bring some lasting changes:
Stepped-up exploration and development of new oil sources.
Energy companies hesitate to lay out the bucks needed until they're sure
oil prices will stay high enough for long enough to make it worthwhile.
Oil from Venezuelan and Canadian tar sands is particularly promising.
Still, the investment won't yield results for years. . .
at least two for new Gulf of Mexico wells, three to five for tar sands,
longer for other sources. By 2012. . .6-12 million more barrels a day.
More gasoline-refining capacity, though it won't be in the U.S.
Environmental hurdles here will push most refinery investment abroad. . .
to the Caribbean and South America. And it won't pay off for years.
A renewed push for nuclear power from pebble bed reactors,
which are safer and less vulnerable to terrorism. Long permit processes
and community opposition mean no new plants until after 2010, though.
And for alternative energy. . .wind, solar, biomass and so on.
As a result, its share of U.S. energy use will double to 8% by 2010.
Plus growing use of fuel cells. A Dow Chemical plant in Texas,
for example, will rely on a hydrogen cell from GM for much of its power.
On the user side, look for new interest in managing energy use.
Combined heat and power systems from Turbosteam, Primary Energy
and others are attracting more attention. They recover heat and steam
from industrial processes to make electricity. Not just industrial giants
can benefit: Oregon's Blue Heron Paper will save about $3 million a year.
And electricity storage using flywheels and batteries will gain.
Meanwhile, automakers face new pressures on fuel efficiency.
Fortunately, Detroit isn't as far behind as it might have been,
thanks to a decision to focus less on gas-guzzling SUVs and more on cars.
About 50 new car models are being added to the Big Three's lineups.
The Kiplinger Lefler IISSN 1528-7r30)IS published weekly for$84/one year,$154hwo years$222Ahree years Subscription inquirieS.800-544-8155 or sub serNces @kiplinpeaom
by The Kiplinger Washington Editors 1729 H Sr.,NW.Washington DC 22006 9938. Editorial inlormatoc: Tel,202-8876462;Fax,202-778-8976,
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POWER The risk of a big power blackout in your area this summer?
SUPPLY Moderate but rising. Power producers will have a difficult time
meeting demand in U.S. cities, especially when temperatures sizzle.
Facing the most strain: The Northeast, Midwest, Texas and Calif.
But don't feel smug if you live elsewhere. . .outages can happen anywhere.
The national power grid is still shaky. Improvements promised
after last August's massive blackout in the Northeast, Midwest and parts
of Canada haven't been made yet. Shoring up the grid will take years.
And rising costs for utilities won't help. Coal and other fuels
are pricier, forcing some utilities to scrimp, limiting their output.
That'll drive up prices for users by about 5% over last summer.
THE Borrowing by businesses is poised to accelerate soon as firms
ECONOMY raise funds to buy new equipment and rebuild their inventories.
Business investment is likely to gain 10% this year and 9% in 2005.
Corporate bonds will experience a revival after a lengthy pause
triggered by higher interest rates that ended a debt-refinancing wave.
Most companies still regard debt as an efficient way to raise capital.
Top-rated corporate bonds will yield 6.5% on average by year end
and probably increase to about 7.5% by the end of 2005, from 5.8% now.
Bank lending will pick up in the second half after a 6% drop
in loan volume in the first quarter and a 7% decline last year.
But heavy competition among banks will keep a lid on rates.
SECURITY Identity theft by employees is a growing headache for managers.
Inside jobs make up over HALF of all ID thefts, a study shows.
Companies found negligent in employee theft of consumers' personal data
can be held liable for damages, so it's critical to have safeguards.
Outside hacker attacks are also on the rise.
ILL-GOTTEN GAINS More than 80% of executives surveyed this year
Where Stolen IDs Are Used: reported that their IT systems were compromised
si last year. That's double the number in 2002.
Phone/<Utd,ty ; Credit Card
<Ghar9es Char yes New technical solutions offer more protection.
For small firms, OmniTrust Security Systems
offers software that lets workers input info,
lef
but blocks them from saving or e-mailing it.
other Vericept has developed a monitoring system
Benefits/ that logs any suspicious employee activity.
Govt.Documents soe.ce:Fre And for larger firms, systems from Authentica,
Liquid Machines and SealedMedia can provide
broader management fixes. To thwart outside hackers, Microsoft and others
will tighten up the default settings on Windows XP and other programs.
And by 2007, new PCs will have chips to protect e-commerce transactions.
RETIREE Businesses will continue to whittle away at retirees' benefits
BENEFITS to cut shortfalls on future pension and health care liabilities.
Although pension shortfalls are shrinking as the economy strengthens,
they're still a concern for many employers. Topping the list of companies
with still-sizable gaps: Ford, GM, Delta Air Lines, Delphi and Visteon.
The new edition of Kiplinger's Retirement Planning can help you
with sound strategies for your own retirement, whether that's imminent
or several years away. The 128-page publication costs just $5.95
plus shipping. Order online at www.kiplinger.com/annuals/retire.html,
or call our toll-free number at 888-547-5464 and ask for operator 28.
jir Remember,your subscription includes The Kiplinger Letter online
ENERGY Oil markets will remain highly volatile at least through June,
despite OPEC's move to open its spigots and increase output.
The fast-approaching June 30 deadline for handing over power in Iraq
is raising oil traders' fears of terrorist attacks on key oil targets.
Traders will probably keep oil around $40 a barrel the rest of the month.
Expect oil prices to fall in mid-July to the $34 to $36 range,
pushing the average price of gasoline down a dime or so from $2.05 now.
Come fall, hurricanes also pose a threat to oil and gas supplies.
Forecasters predict a heavy hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico,
potentially disrupting major refineries and offshore drilling platforms.
Fuel prices would surge on news of serious damage to a major facility.
The high cost of gasoline will dent retail sales in coming weeks.
Folks have less money for other items, and some are curbing store trips.
Most vulnerable: Distant shopping malls and some specialty shops
serving customers who don't live nearby. Their sales will slow a bit
in the second half. But neighborhood and Internet outlets will benefit.
Some retailers are offering gasoline discounts to lure shoppers.
Gas coupon programs and various tie-ins, such as $2 worth of free gas
with each purchase of two rolls of film, are becoming popular promotions.
So far, pricey gas isn't sinking sales of sport-utility vehicles.
Automakers' discounts are buoying SUVs, as May sales figures prove.
That's good news for auto firms, which derive healthy profits from SUVs.
Automakers will rely on more incentives this summer to help sales
of SUVs, hoping to offset any buyer's reluctance due to high gas prices.
POLITICS Remember term limits? A lot of politicians hope you don't.
The movement to curb the tenures of officeholders at the federal,
state and local levels was red hot in the 199Os but is stone cold now.
The economic downturn at the turn of the millennium, the 9/11 attacks,
Iraq and other events served to divert the attention of most Americans.
Few candidates now feel any pressure to voluntarily limit terms.
In fact, the pendulum has swung, with voters now valuing experience.
Only 11 members of Congress remain bound by limits, one-fourth
the number 10 years ago. Though most who vowed to limit their terms
honored their pledges, 13 did not, and ALL of the 13 were reelected.
Term limits are also fading at the state level. Of the 21 states
that adopted term limits for state lawmakers, five have dropped them.
Others will follow suit or will at least permit more years of service.
The last bastions are mostly at the local level. 300 cities,
including NYC and L.A. , still have them, and few plan to ditch them.
CIA Director George Tenet's resignation will fuel more probing
of U.S. intelligence operations by Congress. After years of neglect
and turf battles, the CIA and sibling agencies are ripe for an overhaul.
Lawmakers are eager for reform, but may not be up to the task.
They'd have to put politics aside. . .impossible in an election year.
That's also the reason a new director won't be named until after Nov.
Your very t fi y,
June 4, 2004 THE K ' INGER WASH GTON ITORS
Copyright 2004. The Kiplinger Washington Editors,Inc. Quotation for political or commercial use is not permitted. Duplicating an entire
issue for sharing with others,by any means,is illegal. Photocopying of individual items for internal use is permitted for registrants with
the Copyright Clearance Center,222 Rosewood Drive,Danvers,MA 01923. For details,call 978-750-8400 or visit www.copyright.com.
0 Public Power Weekly May 24,2004
NERC: transmission congestion likely this summer
Generating resources should be ad- exceed available generation and trans- between supply and demand needed to
equate to meet demand this summer in mission capacity.In some local areas noted ensure overall bulk electric system reli-
North America and transmission systems in the report,system operators may need ability,NERC said.
are expected to perform reliably, the to implement controlled demand reduc- Peak demand for electricity is projected
North American Electric Reliabilitycoun- tions to maintain the constant balance to increase by 2.5%,compared to the ac-
cil said in its 2004 SummerASSessmeni tual 2003 noncoincident summer peak.
"NERC and the industry have taken a Normal base electricity transfers and first contingency (Noncoincident peak demand is the sum
number of key steps to improve reliahil- incremental transfer capabilities. itA s p of the eakdemands of the member utili-
stv in the wake of last summer); black- (xonnt"nitancous),EASTERN Nvccc do - ties within a region,which may
out," said NERC President
INTERCONNECTION o ao
and CEO Miehehl R. Gent. wEcc.Canada ;'oast not occur at the same
NPCssmo a hour, day, or month.)
soiomnaea NPOC-O da B Manlimas
"If all entities comply with °"' g�?iopi� s That is in line with the
NERC reliability standards, 'o e'8S.' 3T��. historical average annual
•ISO, otc
then there should be no un- ��'s`�. o'�y: ,, aq- peak demand growth for
I
controlled blackouts." •m g. ' a^ �:,.,� - �,
Q„� o y the last 10 years,which has
Transmission congestion is s.c, '. .fit"O !� PC00 Pro-
wecc a ISO NE been 2.44%,demand ERCsai v ries
�o�: NPCCUS-
likelvtooccurinsomcareas zeoo. ,r�; 'rvrlso , s''t7� jecteddemandgrowthvaries
�I ' .Iez a.
again this summer and ex- s i' ,'v �� .zoo - .5. . .ass ,t widely among the regions,
perience shows that, at o7e "'oo „oo. �'�j
,T /. en. mAAC NERC said: some regions
times, volatile and unpre- § i \/IC F,'' iF II � 1500°' expect significant in-
dictable flow patterns can a �F..,t'A I O, IA .r°`tbl- ,y� creases in their peak demand
WECC M o �� ♦ _.. i a
pose significant challenges - °pr�i' i �' „ for the summer, while others
for transmission system op- WI S ER N ��-11 ,eon. T ft° �;o� project declines.
SERC
erators," NERC, said. "The CONNECTION ;_ ,A 7gfka I:Poo 85°' - ”
vAOnR Although some parts of the
increasing volume of physi- _ ��A p� ,��ti continent are continuing toexpe-
al transactions adds to the ERCOT sERC ,' o � 4
Enla�y � ; ��soelnam
riencedroughtorbe low-averagerain-
unpredictability of the flow pat- fall conditions,those conditions are not
terns"in some areas. ERGOT expected to lead
Although fuel supplies,invem INTERCONNECTION . e TIContingency Al- Transfer
p
� cpaelly .d to capacityorelec-
tories, and deliveries are also �'I A operating procedure mu: be tric energy short-
aocti Sensed
expected to he adequate,unan- CRCC capability d ages this summer,
/
VVV " e n transmission Irma
rr NERC said.ticipated equipment problems __i n c r e m e n t* r r ∎ I dN T na
and extremely hot weather can a, 4 operating The report ort is Su/mein/me Poad ,a,,esea „ om to aow
combine to produce situations the name capabiIi 'obeesed available at
in which demands temporarily For A ROD see next page www.nerc.com.I
LIC PO EK POSTAGE
American Public Power Association PAID
2301 M St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-1484 Washington, D.C.
and additional
Address Service Requested mailing offices
iiiii fillip iiiilll 111117lllll,lllllmil „iii IlIIlillill
3.2tr**4.i, r*E:**t*t8dti%-D Ir.GIi 55350
BRYAN AD,?M>
GENERAL MANAGER
MUNICIPAL UTILITIES
322 NINE AVE
LLB PIVI 'a 11V 5333 0--2 5%
[NEWSPAPER
USPS 028-120
U.S. power grid
expected to perform well
The industry group than people in eight states and parts of
monitors the nsnons electric were thrust into darkness.
• grid expects the system to per- Most distressing, industry experts
form adequately this summer, although said, is that nine months alter the largest
it warned that"uncontrolled blackouts' blackout in U.S- history the nation's
were possible if power providers fail— reliability standards remain voluntary.
as they did last August -- to comply Reliability standards deal with every-
with reliability standards.The North thing from tree-trimming around
• American Electric Reliability Council power lines to the protocols by which
also warned that the increasing volume grid operators dispatch power
of power trading that goes on in deregu- Hoff-Stauffer, an analyst at
lated markets can cause "volatile and Cambridge Energy Research Associates
unpredictable flow patterns (that) can in Cambridge, Mass., said another per-
pose significant challenges for transmis- sistent problem is that power generation
lion system operators." and transmission capacity has nor
The group said it expects peak increased in areas where it is most need-
• power demand to rise by 2.5 percent ed, particularly in the Midwest, where
from last year, slightly above the histori- the cascading Aug. 14 blackout began.
; cal average of 2.4 percent, but that there As a result, transmission lines in the
should be enough electric generation region will likely be stressed during
capacity in all regions to handle this periods of peak demand and that reduces
increased load. reliability, Stauffer said.
Problems could arise, the group said, NERC's summer outlook addressed
in managing the delivery of that power. the issue by saying the Midwest's
i Significant vulnerabilities remain even "transmission system could become
though grid operators have upgraded constrained during peak periods as a
technology and become better coordinat- result of generating unit unavailability,
• ed since last Aug. 14, when 50 million or unplanned transmission outages."
i
Power supplies
adequate for this summer
T his summer's peak "adequate" to meet the needs of the
electric demand int the Upper member electr ic companies for the
Midwest is projected to be coming season. Specifically, the report
33,335 megawatts or 2.4 percent above says that for the northern MAPP region
last summer's actual peak. Power plant "no significant operational issues are
additions should give the region a 18.6 expected this summer..."
percent reserve margin, according to The electric energy needs of the
the Mid-Continent Area Power Pool Upper Midwest are provided by member
(MAPP), the region's electric reliability utilities in MAPP Utilities work together
group. through MAPP to coordinate the opera-
In addition to new generation, the Lion of electrical generation and trans-
MAPP assessment notes that the region's mission facilities and ensure maximum
transmission system is judged to he
efficiency and reliability.
IsA ci�
ay c: -0O` Creak K1✓¢r Jl e W
s
To Conserve Water, Chi•
na Lifts Its Price
By PETER WONACOTT ket can bear. Some have started, and ries use five to 10 times more water than
cities including Beijing, which is espe- factories in developed nations like the U.S.
BEIJING—In the past 50 years,China daily short of water, plan marked in- to produce an equal amount of goods.
has gone from an aspiring Communist creases. Within two years, Beijing plans Spotting an opportunity, foreign corn-
utopia to the land of a billion different to lift the price of water to 54 cents a ton, panies have dived into China's water
business plans. But one constant has re- or nearly double the price it is now. market, with mixed results. Among the
mained through the country's economic Changing the capital's habits is seen as most aggressive is Veolia Water, the wa-
transformation: cheap water. crucial if Beijing is going to have enough ter-management division of Veolia Envi-
Now, facing acute shortages and a water when it hosts the 2008 Olympics. ronnement SA, which has invested about
true threat to future growth,the Chinese "We have two choices," says Mr. Wu, $480 million in 11 water projects in China.
government this year is ordering local the water official. "Raise prices and gen- "We don't see any hurdles to expanding
water bureaus across the country to lift grate income,or not raise them and con- in China," says Stephan Truchot,project
the price of water for the first time since tinue to suffer from shortages." finance director, Veolia Water Asia, a
the People's Republic of China was estab- Indeed,China is choking in a lot more unit of the French water giant.
lished in 1949. Officials believe it is a places than Beijing. About two-thirds of Likewise, ITT Industries Inc. of
matter of national security. China's cities are short of water, accord- White Plains, N.Y., sees the market tide
"China's water situation and eco- ing to the Ministry of Water Resources. going its way. The company is supplying
nomic security are very tightly linked," In the cities, 90% of China's rivers also pumping equipment to projects ranging
says Wu Jisong, a senior official at Chi- are seriously polluted; in the country- from the massive Three Gorges Dam to
na's Ministry of Water Resources. side, 360 million residents aren't able to the relatively minuscule municipal water
Among the many environmental drink water that meets normal sanitation projects. As a result, ITT sees China as
strains created by China's economic standards, and water tables in the arid its fastest-growing market,with sales up
growth, water problems are perhaps felt north are dropping. 55%last year from a year earlier, with a
most acutely and widely. From memory- China's experiments with savingwater similar pace expected this year. By 2006,
chip plants in Shanghai to grain growers go beyond lifting prices.The country is ex- ITT expects to be earning$500 million a
in the nation's north, shortages are hin- panding water-rationing programs after year in China, according to Mark Steele,
dering production. Pollution poses health test-piloting them in a handful of cities. ITT's country chief.
threats to wealthy urbanites and poor In the Southwest city of Mianyang, in "The price rise is going to encourage
farmers alike. China's challenge is tied Sichuan province,all water users receive more infrastructure investment,"he says.
up in raising prices steadily enough to a quota, and those that exceed it on a At the same time, other foreign corn-
encourage people to conserve water and quarterly basis are charged higher panies'experience points out the hazards
to entice foreign companies to help over- prices. Some academics also are urging of an evolving market and the difficulty
haul creaky facilities, but not so steeply the government to allow farmers to sell of profiting from government-run
as to fuel inflation and turn people the water they don't use, a trading sys- projects. Britain's RWE Thames Water,
against the government. tem that has apparently popped up in the world's third-largest water provider,
A long era of heavy subsidies has al- scattered Chinese villages to alleviate earlier this month said it was pulling out
lowed industry and ordinary citizens to the burden of high water prices. of a money-losing water treatment plant
waste water with few economic repercus- The waste is staggering, and costly. in Shanghai.The retreat followed the gov-
sions. But under the government's new About 20%of China's urban water supply ernment's decision to end a policy that
plan, local water bureaus this year will isl ostthrough leakypipes,thewaterminis- guaranteed a 15%fixed rate of return on
raise prices to what they deem the mar- try says.It figures that the nation's facto- such projects.
4 -1s-°11Jd/ A Ja.ve d
Despite drought, piped-in water
still flows quite freely in Phoenix
By Steve M. Wilson The cost of water in Phoenix re-
mains below the national average; a
PHOENIX — Down here in the typical family pays$19-03 a month (a
"Land ofQuite a Few Artificial Lakes," penny less than the Minneapolis av-
we could use a little rain. crage).We have no mandaton water
How dry is it? Its so dry that the restrictions;if you want to clean your
coyotes outside of town keep moving driveway with ahose,no problem..lhe
from one ex-stream to another. swimming pool business is still boom-
the past live years rank as the dri- ing-Thei Cs been no run on Evian.
est period in Arizona in more than a
century.Since this city sits in the hot- WILSON continues on AA11
test desert in North America,were not - - - -- - -
exactlyuptooureyebal is in water.But Some M.Wits-on tv assistant editorial page
drought or no drought, life goes on editor of theAreotua Republic in Phoenu
here pretty much unchanged. arulafonner city editor al the Star Tribune,
WILSON from AA1
If war over water comes, keep your powder dry
']hough the sprawling Phoenix area a popular mountain city 120 miles north of thirst or polluted water.AWorld Bank
has 3.4 million people and ranks as the of here,is in its second year of water re- report notlongago predicted that the 21st
second-fastest-growing metro region hi strictions and is worried enough to talk century's wars IAA be fought over water.
the country, it has all the sat it it needs about building its own hugely expensive When the next big water dispute..
because of the Central Arizona Project pipeline to tap into the Colorado. arises within the United States, it's a
C(:AP) — a 336-mile system of canals, While most Phoenicians fret more good bet Arizona will he in the middle
tunnels,pumping stations and pipelines. about the Arizona Diamondbacks'losing of it,just as it was 70 years ago—the last
II tallies Colorado River water across the season than the drought,most are at least time in American history one state took
state to Phoenix and Ericson.It was coin- using less water.Tom Babcock,the city's up arms against another. That's when
pleted in 1993 at a cost of$1 billion,and water conservation coordinator,says the Gov.Benjamin Moeur sent the Arizona
we want to ll1;111k you for your federal tax biggest savings come in desert landscap- National Guard to the Colorado River,
dollars,which financed it ing instead of water-loving lawns or oth- during the construction of Parker Dam,
Arizona also relies on.surface water er,non-native vegetation.People are using to stop California from taking water.
and groundwater,but without the CAP less water inside homes, too, thanks to A 100-man military unit, riding in
the state world be trying to tow icebergs low-flow toilets,shower heads and more trucks mounted with machine gams,halt-
fromAlaska about now. 'The Colorado efficient washing machines. edworkontheproject.Arizona contended
River's supply is fully subscribed by the Residential water use is a small slice of that the dam was illegal because Congress
seven states drawing front it and its two the pie.About 80percent of the state's wa- hadn't authorized it.The case went to the
giant reservoirs,Lakes Powell and Mead, ter goes to farms,parks and golf courses, U.S. Supreme Court, which sided with •
are far below normal.lint tor at least the though most newer courses use reclaimed Arizona,but Congress then passed a bill.
next few years,the Colorado is expected water. approving the dam and letting California
to meet Arizona'sdentand. While the drought's impact on Arizona drink heavily from the river.
AI izona$smaller towns and rural ar- has been relatively mild,it has the poten- Appreciate those 10,000 lakes,Min-
eas,which don't get CAP water,have been hat for calamity.Thousands of children nesota.When a war over water breaks
hit much harder by Ore drought.IIigsraff, at ound the globe die every day because out,you will be well-fortified.
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MEADOR from AA1
A15-year ianrights—takewhatyouwantfrom
a stream along your property,as long
as you don't keep your downstream
drought may neighbors from meeting their needs.
In the West,where water is scarce,the
be optimistic governing principle is prior appropri-
ation whoever grabs the water first
acquires a right to grab just as much
It is vindication for environmen- forever (and to sell some portion of
talists who fought the dam as a sense- it to distant bidders, which is how
less destruction of a place so beautiful a Colorado miner's water ends up
it might have become a national mon- misting a golf course in Scottsdale).
ument if not for Grand Canyon, just When there isn't enough water to go
downstream. And it is sobering for around, rightsholders share the pain
those who count on the dam's tur- not on the basis of need,but in reverse
bines for electricity that supplies a order of seniority.
million households; if the drought To waste water, in the East, is to
lasts three more years,there may not let a leaky toilet run and run. In the
he enough water to make watts. West, it is to leave water in a stream-
Meanwhile, efforts to reverse the bed,undiverted;under the use-it-or-
dam's insults to Grand Canyon are lose-it rule, water rights that aren't
constrained by Lake Powell's decline. exercised can be challenged and lost.
The canyon's ecosystem depended Thus the extraordinarily wasteful irri-
on a Colorado River that surged in gation practices in the Central Valley
the spring with boulder-flinging vio- of California,a state where 85 percent
lence and then subsided to a warm, of the water goes to agriculture;thus
silt-brown laziness. Now the dam the cities, like Sacramento, that ban
delivers a flow that is clear, cold and water metering by city charter.Thus
steady.Among the results:Four of the a"reservoir" like Lake Powell, which
canyon's eight fish species have disap- evaporates more water than it deliv-
peared;water-hogging tamarisk scrub ers to L.A.taps.
is driving out native vegetation;bout- After the last long drought in the
ders are building up in the river;sand West, in the 1980s, there were some
beaches are shrinking, exposing an- minor moves toward reform.But then
cient Indian structures to ruin. the clouds burst,and kept bursting for
By congressional directive, the several years,and everybody could go
dam's operators have been trying back to sleep.
for eight years to release water in This time around, it's anybody's
some semblance of a natural cycle. guess when conditions might return
It hasn't worked out. The dam can't to"normal."Bennett Raley,the Interi-
spill enough water to create the four- or Department's top official on water
fold increases in flow that were typical policy, observed at a recent meeting
on the Colorado in springtime; what of the Colorado River Compact states
surges it can manage are deficient in that"we don't know whether we're in
beach-replenishing silt, which stays the fifth year of a five-year drought or
backed up in Glen Canyon (and, by the fifth year of a I5-year drought."
some forecasts, may fill Lake Powell Both alternatives could prove op-
within 100 years). timistic. Some scientists say recent
Powell's current problems are dra- studies of tree rings and other cli-
matic but also typical of Western ap- mate indicators suggest the West has
proach to water management that has begun a dry spell that could last,say,
never been sustainable, nor even es- 800 years.
pecially rational.
Consider:In the East,where water Ron Meador,an editorial writer,is at
is plentiful, its use is subject to ripar- nneador @startrlbune.com.
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