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6.4. SR 12-19-2016Request for Action To Item Number Mayor and City Council 6.4 Agenda Section Meeting Date Prepared by Presentations, Awards, and December 19, 2016 Kristin Mroz, Environmental Technician Recognition Item Description Reviewed by University of St. Thomas: History of Climate Suzanne Fischer, Director COD Reviewed by Cal Portner, City Administrator Action Requested None requested. Background/Discussion City of Elk River staff has been working with the University of St. Thomas Sustainable Communities Partnership in 2016. For the fall semester, one class that took on a project was History 298: History and Climate. The class syllabus includes investing historical climate impacts across the world and identifying cultural changes to human populations. For the City of Elk River project, the class identified likely changes to our climate based on state and national assessments and researched how those impacts may affect our own local population in the future. Students from the class will present a summary of their findings over four themes: precipitation, temperature, disease, and migration. Financial Impact None Attachments ■ None AR Executive Summary While human -driven climate change is projected to develop very dramatically in coming decades, climate change itself is not new. History can therefore offer some insights into how changing climates have impacted people in the past, and what kinds of changes climatic influence has made to human social, economic, and political development. Precipitation levels adjust as climates change, which has brought destructive effects including floods, droughts, storms, and changes in average amounts and variability of rainfall. This has led to economic damage, increases in emigration, and deaths. Less dramatically, changing rainfall patterns have produced damages to crops, causing rising food prices and even famine, soil erosion, flood risk, lower biodiversity of areas, and water polluted by runoff. Temperatures have fluctuated in human history, with a medieval warm period followed by a colder "Little Ice Age" from about 1300-1850. The impacts of such changes varied by region, with the key variables not climate itself but how societies reacted to change. Health has often been impacted by changing climates. Currently, Elk River is likely to see increased in many climate -linked health hazards, such as air pollution, and mosquito-borned diseases. Climate change has prompted migration throughout all of human history, even aided human evolution itself and in our spread throughout the world. In historical time climate -linked droughts, floods, and other changes have prompted migration, both sudden and gradual. In the future it is critical that municipal governments such as the Elk River take into consideration issues such as migration, especially considering recent international declarations that migration is one means of adapting to climate change. Cities in Minnesota need migrants in order to meet labor demands. Some of these migrants will be related in some way to climate. 1. Precipitation When considering climate adaptation, it is 'imperative to review historical insights that may be useful, including many types of social, economic, cultural, and political changes that have been experienced in the past. This requires offering conclusions that balance being useful and oriented towards action, with caution regarding the nature and extent of our knowledge. First, in regards to past precipitation, research showed that it is imperative to have an understanding of how important the role that precipitation plays on our world is, as well as the repeated consequential effects that have resulted from climate change shifting trends in precipitation. In particular, the aftermath of floods, droughts, storms, and changes in average amounts and variability of rainfall have caused endless damaging economic impacts, physical property damages, increases in emigration, and death. Additionally, our environment has been negatively affected by such change as well. This frequently includes damages to crops- causing famine and food price inflation, soil erosion, flood risk, lower biodiversity of areas, and diminished quality of water due to pollutants deposited on land being washed into water bodies through runoff water. Since the early 20th century, average U.S. precipitation has increased roughly 5%. Climate models project average winter and spring precipitation by late this century (2071-2099) to increase 10% to 20% (relative to 1971-2000). The majority of this precipitation will occur in the form of rain and snow. Looking specifically at Elk River, there is an estimated increase of four inches. The National Climate Assessment has compiled evidence to project an increase in 4 the number of storms involving heavy precipitation. Elk River is projected to have an increase of over 1.2 days with extreme precipitation (the top 2% of storms). As the number of storms and heavy precipitation increase, the risk, and reality, of flooding also increase. The three factors affecting flooding are rainfall, snowmelt, and rate of runoff. The two major types of flooding expected in the future are flooding from snowfall (majority occurring in the form of lake effect snowfall) and flooding from extreme precipitation. Contrastingly, surnmer precipitation is expected to decrease. An overall 8% decrease in summer precipitation in 2041-2062 (relative to 1979-2000) is expected for the Midwest" (NCA). The number of consecutive days each year with less than 0.01 inches of precipitation is expected to increase by about 1-2 for the City of Elk River. All in all, precipitation is a topic to keep in mind when considering mitigating a city in preparation for climate change, and after looking at past trends and current projections, it is clear that an increase in spring and winter and a decrease in summer precipitation will have a wide range of effects on the city of Elk River. 2. Temperature The Earth's climate changes when it is forced to change; when it experiences an energy imbalance. When this occurs, the planet either loses or gains heat, resulting in global temperature changes. With the help of natural proxy data, i.e., ice cores, fossil pollen, lake sediments, ocean sediment cores, glaciers, and tree rings, scientists are able to determine what the past climate was like and how it affected different regions of the world. Knowing this information gives historical insight in order to help us plan for our future. However, there are hidden factors that have to be acknowledged to understand the extent of the climatic conditions, which has had an impact on the social, economic, cultural and political structures to any historical society. This greatly depends on the elemental components of, 'collective mentalities' within human response, and that is found in. cultural perception. It is also, important to look into past characteristics of social groups during the time of temperature change and how those regions reacted to combat the climatic conditions in order to achieve stability. Historical records show that the Earth has gone through multiple climatic variations, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice age to name a few. While regions varied in temperatures around the world, the positive and/or negative outcome of each region was not due to the climate, but instead how they reacted to it. The Medieval Climate Anomaly was a time between roughly 900 and H 50 AD of warming, as the Little Ice Age was a period of extreme cooling that occurred right after. By conducting research within the regions of climatic impacts, those who were able to obtain stability within their society were the ones who were intuitive and kept a stable balance with their resources, or come up with diligent methods that would help them survive. For example, trade with other regions if they were not able to grow a certain type ro, of crop. Those who were negatively impacted by the temperature change had not made the decision to conserve, sustain, or use the resources that surrounded them, 3. Disease Elk River has a diverse landscape filled with major rivers, takes, forested areas, prairies and low lands. Due to this variety, Elk River and Sherburne County as a whole should be concerned with a multitude of health risks related to climate change rather than one major concern. The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) states that Sherburne County is one of twelve counties ranked in the top percentile in overall Climate Hazards. The factors assessed include the number of extreme heat events, the number of days exceeding fine particle pollution air-quality standards, the number of days exceeding ozone air quality standards, Lyme disease incidence, West Nile virus incidence, number of flash floods, and periods of extreme draught. Temperatures have been rising during the past decade, and waterways are subject to specific effects. This includes rising water temperature that can change fish populations and mercury concentrations in fish; hannful algal blooms; reduced dissolved oxygen which can harm aquatic animals and mobilize pollutants; incomplete water mixing in lakes, which can harm fish populations and the water system ecology, and increasing habitat for mosquitoes that may carry harmful diseases such as West Nile Virus. 1.1 4. Migration Climate has shaped humanity in many fundamental ways, even our very evolution is characterized by our ability to adapt successfully to ever changing climatic situations. Once humans were capable, climate dictated how we would leave Africa, through a revolving door of climate changes that shifted the northern regions between gentle savannah and harsh desert. Once into the heart of Central Asia and the Mediterranean, humanity was quickly able to spread throughout the world, aided by our evolutionary advances that had been sculpted by our environment. This allowed for people to inhabit the entire globe with unprecedented speed. Once communities began to grow, climate still could dictate how we move, as large climate events could make certain areas uninhabitable and permanent settlements unstable. Yet as technology advanced the major forces that drove migrations soon turned to economic and social structures, but this did not mean climate took a back seat. Still an important driver, climate heavily influences what economies can produce and how social groups form and interact. Prolonged drought can force people to move and over- stress a neighboring population, a rise in water temperature can devastate a fishing community, and even major events such as increased volcanic activity can force massive populations to migrate suddenly. In the future it is critical that municipal governments such as the Elk River take into consideration issues such as migration, especially considering recent international declarations such as the COP 16 decision that migration is one means of adapting to climate change. Municipal governments through their relationship with their populaces will be need to take some form of action in the event of a state receiving refugees. This is especially DI important for cities in the state of Minnesota because of the state needing a large number of migrants in order to meet labor demands. Some of these migrants will be related in some way to climate. Fortunately for governments dealing with migration is often something that can be handled as long as the numbers of people are predicable since states have been dealing with moving populations since antiquity. Climate refugees offer new and difficult problems but thanks to large international government organizations such as the UN and the research of experts in the field basic best practices have existed for almost two years. Though not all of the problems have solutions, paying attention to the issues will allow governments of all levels to be better able to response as issues may arise. 10