7.1. HRASR 04-02-2018 EOty1� ,.,�� Request for Action
River
To Item Number
Housing and Redevelopment Authority 7.1
Agenda Section Meeting Date Prepared by
General Business Aril 2, 2018 Amanda Othoudt,EDD
Item Description Reviewed by
2018 Housing Study Presentation Cal Portner, City Administrator
Reviewed by
Action Requested
Hear presentation regarding the updated 2018 housing study.
Background/Discussion
At their November 6, 2017, meeting, the HRA authorized entering into an agreement with Maxfield
Research to update our 2015 comprehensive housing study to assist in determining availability of
different segments of housing in Elk River and in planning for the future of the housing market in the
community.
Staff will present the results of the Housing Study to the HRA. An executive summary of the analysis can
be found on page two of the report.
Following the presentation, the complete report will be available on the city's website.
Financial Impact
N/A
Attachments
■ Maxfield Housing Study Update (February 15, 2018)
The Elk River Vision
A wehoMing community withrevolutionary and spirited resourcefulness, exceptional POWERED By
service, and community engagement that encourages and inspires prosperity INAWRE1
Comprehensive Housing Market Study Updates
City of Elk River, Minnesota
r� Maxfield
NOVResearch & Consultinc
Maxfield
- Research & Consulting
February 15, 2018
Ms. Amanda Othoudt
Economic Development Director
City of Elk River
13065 Orono Parkway
Elk River, MN 55330
Dear Ms. Othoudt:
Attached is the Comprehensive Housing Market Study Updates for Elk River, Minnesota conducted by
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC. The original study was completed in December 2015, with the
following updates completed in February 2017. The study projects housing demand from 2017 through
2025, and provides recommendations on the amount and type of housing that could be built in Elk River
to satisfy demand from current and future residents through 2025.
The study identifies a potential demand for approximately 864 new housing units through 2025. About
20% of the total demand is for senior housing; while general -occupancy housing accounted for 80% of
the demand. Demand is strongest for for -sale housing, representing 395 of the 864 new housing units.
There is also strong demand for additional market rate (172 units) and affordable rental housing (93
units)
If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact us. We have enjoyed conduct-
ing this study for you.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC
e4e
Matt Mullins Brian Smith
Vice President Senior Associate
Attachment
(main) 612-338-0012 (fax) 612-904-7979
7575 Golden Valley Road, Suite 385, Golden Valley, MN 55427
www.maxfieldresearch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY.......................................................................................... 1
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS..................................................................................................... 2
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 2
MarketArea Definition..................................................................................................... 2
Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections from 1990 to 2030 ............. 3
AgeDistribution Trends.................................................................................................... 5
Household Income by Age of Householder...................................................................... 6
Tenure by Age of Household............................................................................................. 8
HouseholdType Trends.................................................................................................... 10
Household by Household Income..................................................................................... 11
Summary of Demographic Trends.................................................................................... 12
EMPLOYMENT....................................................................................................................... 14
EmploymentTrends.......................................................................................................... 14
ResidentLabor Force........................................................................................................ 14
CoveredEmployment........................................................................................................ 16
Inflow/Outflow.................................................................................................................. 17
MajorEmployers............................................................................................................... 18
Summary of Demographic Trends.................................................................................... 18
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS................................................................................................. 20
Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present............................................................ 20
Housing Units by Structure and Tenure............................................................................ 21
Summary of Demographic Trends.................................................................................... 22
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS.................................................................................................. 23
General Occupancy Rental Projects.................................................................................. 23
Senior Housing in Elk River................................................................................................ 27
Summary of Elk River Competitive Multifamily Properties .............................................. 30
FOR -SALE HOUSING ANALYSIS.............................................................................................. 32
ResidentialResales............................................................................................................ 32
Current Supply of Homes on the Market.......................................................................... 36
LotSupply.......................................................................................................................... 39
Summary of For Sale Market Conditions.......................................................................... 41
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS.............................................................................................. 43
Estimated Demand for For -Sale Housing........................................................................... 43
Estimated Demand for General Occupancy Rental Housing ............................................. 44
Estimated Demand for Independent/Few Services Senior Housing ................................. 45
Estimated Demand for Affordable and Subsidized Independent Senior Housing ............ 46
Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing.......................................................... 47
Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing.................................................................. 48
Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing.................................................................. 49
DEMAND SUMMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS............................................... 50
Demand Summary/Overall Housing Recommendations.................................................. 50
Recommended Housing Product Types............................................................................ 52
MAPS
Page
PrimaryMarket Area.............................................................................................................. 2
Elk River General Occupancy Rental Housing Locations....................................................... 26
Elk River Senior Housing Locations........................................................................................ 29
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
D1. Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections, Elk River,
1990 to 2030............................................................................................................................ 3
D2. Population Age Distribution, Elk River, 2000 to 2025 .................................................. 5
D3. Household Income by Age of Householder, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 ........................ 8
D4. Tenure by Age of Householder, Elk River Study Area, 2010 and 2016 ......................... 8
D5. Household Type Trends, Elk River Study Area, 2010 and 2016 .................................... 10
D6. Tenure by Household Income, Elk River, 2010 and 2016 ............................................. 11
E1. Resident Employment, Sherburne County, 2000 to 2017 ............................................ 14
E2. Covered Employment Trends, Elk River, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2016 ................................ 16
E3. Commuting Inflow/Outflow Characteristics, City of Elk River, 2015 ............................ 17
E4. Major Employers, City of Elk River, 2017...................................................................... 28
HC1. Residential Construction, City of Elk River, 2000 to 2017 ............................................ 20
HC2. Housing Stock by Units in Structure, Elk River, 2000 and 2016 .................................... 21
RMA1. General Housing Occupancy Rental Housing, City of Elk River, January 2018 .......... 23
SH1. Senior Housing, City of Elk River, January 2018........................................................... 27
FS1.
Home Resales, City of Elk River, 2010-2017.................................................................
32
FS2.
Single Family and Multifamily Residential Sales, City of Elk River,
45
HD4. Affordable Independent Senior Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 ..............
2000 through 2017.......................................................................................................
33
FS3.
Home Resales by Sales Price & Product Type, City of Elk River, 2017 ..........................
34
FS4.
Housing Sales Per Square Foot (PSF), Elk River, 2005 to 2017 .....................................
35
FS5.
Homes Currently Listed For -Sale, City of Elk River, February 2018 ..............................
36
FS6.
Active Listings by Housing Type, Elk River, February 2018 ...........................................
37
FS7.
Subdivision & Lot Inventory- Detached Housing Units, City of Elk River,
4t" Quarter 2017...........................................................................................................
39
FS8.
Subdivision & Lot Inventory - Attached Housing Units, City of Elk River,
4t" Quarter 2017...........................................................................................................
40
HDI. For -Sale Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 to 2025 .....................................................
43
HD2. Rental Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 to 2025 ........................................................
44
HD3. Market Rate Active Adult/Few Services Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022.
45
HD4. Affordable Independent Senior Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 ..............
46
HD5. Subsidized Independent Senior Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 ..............
46
HD6. Market Rate Congregate Rental Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 .............
47
HD7. Market Rate Assisted Living Demand, Elk River Market Area, 2017 and 2022 ............
48
HD8. Memory Care Demand, Elk River Market Area, 2017 and 2022 ..................................
49
CRI. Summary of Housing Demand, City of Elk River, February 2017.................................. 50
CR2. Recommended Housing Development, City of Elk River, 2017 to 2025 ...................... 52
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC (i.e. "Maxfield Research") was engaged by the City of Elk
River to complete an update of the Comprehensive Housing Market Study for the City of Elk
River from 2015. This report includes an update only to select tables and is intended to act as
an addendum to the original document.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section of the report examines factors related to the current and future demand for both
owner- and renter -occupied housing in Elk River, Minnesota. It includes population and house-
hold growth trends and projections, projected age distribution, household income and house-
hold types. A review of these characteristics will provide insight into the demand for various
types of housing in the Market Area.
Elk River Study Area Definition
The draw area for determining current and future housing demand in the City of Elk River is
based on traffic pattern orientation, proximity to other communities, interviews with local offi-
cials and community stakeholders, natural and manmade geographic barriers, and our
knowledge of the draw areas for housing. The Study Area is defined as Elk River proper.
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
30,000
25,000
20,000
c
0
15,000
3
010,000
5,000
Elk River
Population Trends
1990-2020
❑ 1990 ❑ 2000 ❑ 2010 ❑ 2017 ❑ 2022 ❑ 2025 ■ 2030
Elk River Study Area
Household Trends
1990-2020
12,000
10,000
8,000 8,617 9,005
9,298 9,704
8,080
6,000
5,664
= 4,000
3,732
2,000
0
❑ 1990 ❑ 2000 ❑ 2010 ❑ 2017 ❑ 2022 ❑ 2025 ❑ 2030
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 4
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
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7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
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Adult Population Age Distribution
Elk River
2000 to 2025
-------------------- -ui
...... ._ _ ___ ................. _______
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Age Cohort
2000 2010 2017 ■ 2022 ■ 2025
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 5
TABLE D-2
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
ELK RIVER
2000-2025
Number of Persons
Change
iii2000-2010
No.
5,146
No.
6,555
No.
6,642
No.
6,827
No.
6,919
N
2010-2025
No. Pct. No.
1,409 27.4 364
Pct.
5.6
17 &under
18-24
1,395
1,757
1,999
1,887
1,966
362
25.9
209
11.9
25-34
2,461
3,204
3,412
3,609
3,590
743
30.2
386
12.1
35-44
3,117
3,584
3,470
3,824
3,931
467
15.0
347
9.7
45-54
1,963
3,535
3,489
3,255
3,171
1,572
80.1
-364
-10.3
55-64
1,049
2,192
2,745
2,907
2,830
1,143
109.0
638
29.1
65-74
663
1,188
1,655
1,984
2,306
525
79.2
1,118
94.1
75+
653
959
1,071
1,268
1,494
306
46.9
535
55.8
Total
16,447
22,974
24,484
25,561
26,2081
1 6,527
39.7
2,587
11.3
Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI, Inc.;
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
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Elk River
2000 to 2025
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Age Cohort
2000 2010 2017 ■ 2022 ■ 2025
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 5
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
TABLE D-3
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
ELK RIVER
(Number
of Households)
2017 and 2022
2017
Less than $15,000
338
17
37
33
31
56
73
91
$15,000 to $24,999
498
21
52
51
54
64
113
143
$25,000 to $34,999
521
28
92
68
58
89
83
103
$35,000 to $49,999
969
35
187
138
147
174
131
156
$50,000 to $74,999
1,703
70
369
300
321
272
222
148
$75,000 to $99,999
1,535
38
302
363
361
283
158
29
$100,000 or more
3,053
38
448
800
912
577
230
47
Total
8,617
247
1,488
1,754
1,884
1,516
1,011
717
<$25,000
836
38
89
84
85
120
186
234
$35,000+
7,259
181
1,307
1,602
1,741
1,307
741
380
Median Income
$78,428
$55,477
$75,365
$93,219
$97,202
$82,185
$59,223
$36,403
Twin Cities Med. Income
$67,795
$34,820
$58,146
$81,972
$88,167
$80,649
$58,179
$37,464
2022
Less than $15,000
363
17
39
36
30
53
83
105
$15,000 to $24,999
502
19
49
48
40
60
120
166
$25,000 to $34,999
497
25
83
66
45
78
86
114
$35,000 to $49,999
906
33
166
123
115
155
139
175
$50,000 to $74,999
1,533
60
331
273
239
234
229
167
$75,000 to $99,999
1,501
39
301
362
305
273
185
36
$100,000 or more
3,702
44
573
993
950
719
342
81
Total
9,005
237
1,542
1,901
1,724
1,572
1,184
844
<$25,000
865
36
88
84
70
113
203
271
$35,000+
7,643
176
1,371
1,751
1,609
1,381
895
459
Median Income
$84,758
$57,518
$81,690
$101,749
$104,816
$92,345
$65,812
$37,255
Twin Cities Med. Income
$78,703
$37,641
$68,180
$92,464
$99,756
$93,254
$69,137
$42,675
Change
Less than $15,000
25
-0
2
3
-1
-3
10
14
$15,000 to $24,999
4
-2
-3
-3
-14
-4
7
23
$25,000 to $34,999
-24
-3
-9
-2
-13
-11
3
11
$35,000 to $49,999
-62
-2
-21
-15
-32
-19
8
19
$50,000 to $74,999
-170
-10
-38
-27
-82
-38
7
19
$75,000 to $99,999
-34
1
-1
-1
-56
-10
27
7
$100,000 or more
650
6
125
193
39
142
112
34
Total
388
-10
54
147
-160
56
174
127
<$25,000
29
-2
-1
-0
-15
-7
17
37
$35,000+
384
-5
64
149
-132
74
154
79
Median Income
$6,330
$2,041
$6,325
$8,530
$7,614
$10,160
$6,589
$852
Twin Cities Med. Income
$10,908
$2,821
$10,034
$10,492
$11,589
$12,605
$10,958
$5,211
Sources: ESRI, Inc.; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Growth and Income Trends by Age of Householder
Elk River
2017 to 2022
2,000
$100,000
1,800
—._._. .......
1,600 -------------
"3-,2
1,400
•—•—•—•—
o
U
$ 9,223
c
$60,000 m
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v
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0 1,200
•—•—•—•—
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o
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—
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—
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—
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15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Age of Householder
$120,000
®2017
O 2022
--b-2017 Income
$100,000
2,185._._._._._.
$80,000
_ — —
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c
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_ C 00
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$40,000 0
65-74 75+
$0
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 7
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Elk River
Renters by Age of Householder - 2016
600
90%
Elk River
No. of Ren'
500
Homeowners by Age of Householder - 2016
60%
Q.)
1,800
87.9%
100%
50%
1,600
82.4% 80.0° 77 9/
90%
400
i
1,400
68.0%
0
80%
=
411
3 2/
70%
c
1,200
1,644 1,189
60%
s
a,
1,000
132
1,288
32.0
°
1=
50%
a,
0
800
=
40%
3
0
600
719
30%
•
17.6°
32.1% ONo. of Homeowners
2P.05
E
z
400
401
20%
=0
200
Homeownership Rate
34
10%
100
0
0%
NN 6N �5k
15
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R5 NJ05� 551Q0
65 t0�
Age of Householder
Elk River
Renters by Age of Householder - 2016
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 9
600
90%
80%
No. of Ren'
500
533
60%
Q.)
c
50%
•
-Pct. Rentei
400
•
a
20%
337
411
c
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Age of Householder
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 9
100%
90%
80%
70%
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 9
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Less than $5,000
$5,000 to $9,999
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 or more
Total _
TABLE D-6
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
ELK RIVER
2010 and 2016
2010*
Own
Rent
No. Pct.
No. Pct.
22 37.3
37 62.7
37 41.1
53 58.9
162 63.5
93 36.5
205 63.3
119 36.7
110 45.3
133 54.7
248 57.9
180 42.1
762 78.7
206 21.3
1,395 80.8
331 19.2
1,338 95.1
69 4.9
1,686 97.7
39 2.3
673 91.7
61 8.3
1,306 16.4
6,653 83.6
* Data is from US Census, American Community Survey (5 -Year Estimate)
Source: US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC.
2016*
Own
Rent
No. Pct.
No. Pct.
156 67.2
76 32.8
29 46.8
33 53.2
74 52.5
67 47.5
62 57.9
45 42.1
92 31.6
199 68.4
393 56.1
308 43.9
377 44.0
480 56.0
1,094 75.9
348 24.1
1,153 89.5
135 10.5
2,073 93.4
146 6.6
984 95.8
43 4.2
r 1,960 23.4
6,407 76.6
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 11
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Summary of Demographic Trends
Population and Household Projections
• Between 2010 and 2017, the Elk River population and households are estimated to have in-
creased by 6.6% (1,510 people and 537 households), while Sherburne County and Wright
County's populations grew by 5.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
Population in the City of Elk River is projected to increase by 4.4% (1,077 people) from 2017
to 2022 and forecast to grow 7.0% (1,724) through 2025. Overall, Elk River's population is
forecast to gain over 3,230 people (14%) from 2010 to 2025.
Age Distribution Trends
Between 2010 and 2025, the growth of the older age cohorts will continue in Elk River,
those age 65 to 74 will experience the largest growth, growing 94% (1,118 people). All
other age cohorts will experience a decline in population or experience nominal growth.
• The 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 age cohorts will experience the largest growth (19.9% and 18.4%
respectively) in the PMA between 2017 and 2022. The population 18 to 24 and 45 to 54 are
projected to decline from 2017 to 2022 by 5.6% and 6.7%, respectively. All other age co-
horts are expected to experience moderate growth in population.
Household Income by Age of Householder
The Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing costs as
30% of a household's adjusted gross income. For example, a household in Elk River with the
median income of $78,428 per year would be able to afford a monthly housing cost of
about $1,956.
A generally accepted standard for affordable owner -occupied housing is that a typical
household can afford to pay 3.0 to 3.5 times their annual income on a single-family home.
Thus, a $78,428 income would translate to an affordable single-family home of $235,284 to
$273,868. The higher end of this range assumes that the person has adequate funds for
down payment and closing costs, but also does not include savings or equity in an existing
home which would allow them to purchase a higher priced home.
With a household income of $55,477, a younger household in Elk River (the median house-
hold income for the 25 and under cohort) could afford a monthly housing cost of about
$1,386 based on an allocation of 30% of income toward housing. A senior household (75+)
in Elk River with an income of $36,403 (the median household income of seniors (75+) could
afford a monthly housing cost of $1,213, based on an allocation of 40% of income toward
housing.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 12
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Tenure by Household Income
A portion of renter households are referred to as lifestyle renters, or those who are finan-
cially -able to own but choose to rent, have household incomes above $50,000. These life-
style renters account for approximately 34% of the renters in Elk River renters in 2016.
Households with incomes below $15,000 are typically a market for deep subsidy rental
housing. In 2016, this was about 13% of renters in Elk River. Households with incomes
ranging from roughly $25,000 to $50,000 are candidates for affordable rental properties
and account for 40% of the renters in 2016.
Tenure by Age of Householder
• The number of owner households in Elk River is estimated to have decreased from 80.2%
in 2010 to 76.6% in 2016.
As households progress through their life cycle, housing needs change. The proportion of
renter households decreases significantly as households' age out of their young -adult
years. However, by the time households reach their senior years, rental housing often be-
comes a more viable option than homeownership, reducing the responsibility of mainte-
nance and the financial commitment. In the City of Elk River, homeowner households
reached a high of 87.9% in the 65-74 age cohort in 2016. Homeownership then begins to
fall, dropping to 63.2% for those 75 and older in 2016.
Household Type
• In Elk River, married without children family households comprise the largest share of
households at 33.5% of household. This is followed by married with children at 27.2% and
persons living alone at 19%.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 13
EMPLOYMENT
Employment Trends
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 14
TABLE E-1
RESIDENT
EMPLOYMENT (ANNUAL AVERAGE)
SHERBURNE COUNTY
2000 to 2017
Total
Minnesota
U.S.
Labor
Total
Total Unemployment
Unemployment
Unemployment
Year
Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate
Rate
Rate
2000
37,904
36,748
1,156
3.0%
3.2%
4.0%
2001
39,496
38,001
1,495
3.8%
3.8%
4.7%
2002
41,524
39,552
1,972
4.7%
4.5%
5.8%
2003
43,310
41,090
2,220 T
5.1%
4.9%
6.0%
2004
45,025
42,780
2,245
5.0%
4.7%
5.6%
2005
46,529
44,513
2,016
4.3% 1
4.1%
L 5.1%
2006
48,064
45,991
2,073
4.3%
4.0%
4.6%
2007
48,738
46,299
2,439
5.0% T
4.6%
4.6%
2008
49,592
46,531
3,061
6.2%
5.4%
5.8%
2009
49,293
44,821
4,472
9.1%
7.8%
9.3%
2010
48,990
44,867
4,123
8.4%
7.4%
9.6%
2011
48,840
45,355
3,485
7.1%
6.5%
8.9%
2012
48,756
45,754
3,002
6.2%
5.6%
8.1%
2013
48,909
46,309
2,600
5.3%
4.9%
7.4%
2014
49,186
47,001
2,185
4.4%
4.1%
6.2%
2015
49,759
47,646
2,113
4.2%
3.9%
5.5%
2016
49,647
47,592
2,055
4.1%
3.8%
4.9%
2017
50,681
48,710
1,971
3.9%
3.6%
4.4%
Change 2000-10
11,086
8,119
2,967
5.4%
4.2%
5.6%
Change 2011-17
1,841
3,355
-1,514
-3.2%
-2.9%
-3.3%
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 14
EMPLOYMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SHERBURNECOUNTY
2000 to 2017
10.0%
9.6%
Sherburne 9_1%
• Minnesota
8.0% —•—•—•—•—•— —. —. .— .—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.
v _ U.S.
a+
7.0% •—•—•—•—•—• •-7-
.8 — — — — — — — — —
6.0%
v6.0% — —•—•— — •—•—•—•—•—•—•—•——•—•—•—•—• — — —•—•--
E 5.1%
E4.9% .9
4.0% 3.2%°— —.—.—.—.—. —.—.—.— —.—._. ■
4.0%
2.0
00 Oy OL O'� O� 05 00 01 Q4b 00 1y 1 �y titi y'� yo y5 ti0 til
.ti0 ,LO ,10 ,ti0 ,LO ,LO ,ti0 ,LO ,LO ,LO ,LO ,10 ,y0 ,ti0 ,LO ,y0 .10 .10
Year
LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
SHERBURNE COUNTY
2000 to 2017
52,500
49,592 50,681
50,000 —. _.—.—.—. — — ——•—•—•—•—•—•— — — — — -
47,500 -•—•—•—•—•— —•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•— 4$,T.
0 45,000 ----- ----' 46 33' ----------_
Ln
L
a42,500 •—•—•— — •—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•—•-
0
Z40,000 -37,904—, ............ ••—•—• ... Total Labor Force —'-
37,500 — — — Total Employed
36,748
35,000
,LO00 L001 L(36 361 p'311 Lpd5 300 LOOT LOO$ LOO" LOBO 3'SN LptiL LOti'' LOtif� LOtiS LOti'' 3 0
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 15
EMPLOYMENT
TABLE E-2
COVERED EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
ELK RIVER
2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016
North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS)
Change
2000-2014
Average Number of Emp loyees
' , of
total
Industry 2000
2005
2010
2016
No. Pct.
2000
2005
2010
2014
Natural Resources & Mining 64
139
91
117
53 82.8
0.7%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
Construction 544
754
389
664
120 22.1
6.1%
7.3%
3.6%
5.7%
Manufacturing 1,202
1,073
1,243
1,500
298 24.8
13.6%
10.4%
11.4%
12.9%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,470
3,004
2,602
2,854
384 15.5
27.9%
29.2%
23.8%
24.6%
Information 108
63
55
66
-42 -38.9
1.2%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
Financial Services 373
476
394
332
-41 -11.0
4.2%
4.6%
3.6%
2.9%
Professional and Business Services 900
735
881
1,316
416 46.2
10.1%
7.1%
8.0%
11.3%
Education and Health Services 1,367
1,802
3,031
2,318
951 69.6
15.4%
17.5%
27.7%
20.0%
Leisure and Hospitality 889
1,102
842
1,055
166 18.7
10.0%
10.7%
7.7%
9.1%
Other Services 380
424
543
495
115 30.34.30
4.1%
5.0%
4.3%
Public Administration 570
726
875
884
1 314 55.1
6.4%
7.0%
8.0%
7.6%
Totals 8,867
10,298
10,946
11,601
2,734 30.8
100%
100%
100% 100%
Source: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
13,000
12,000
11,000
W
W
L
U 10,000
46
0
d
Z 9,000
8,000
Covered Employment Trends
Elk River
2000 through 2016
r- 11,601
-----------------------
.-tO,-29.8.------- .-.-.-.------- ._.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.
8,867
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 16
EMPLOYMENT
City of Elk River: Inflow/Outflow
r' 'r
Now1hen
i
Elk Ri,ei
TYr i I�
9,48+1 10,454
T .. .
,o
2299 -
Sao
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 17
TABLE E-3
COMMUTING INFLOW/OUTFLOW
CHARACTERISTICS
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2015
City Total
10,454
100.0%
9,481
100.0%
2,299
100.0%
By Age
Workers Aged 29 or younger
2,324
22.2%
2,393
2S.2%
60S
26.3%
Workers Aged 30 to S4
6,316
60.4%
5,204
S4.9%
1,151
S0.1%
Workers Aged SS or older
1,814
17.4%
1,884
19.9%
S43
23.6%
By Monthly Wage
Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less
2,088
20.0%
2,768
29.2%
931
40.S%
Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month
2,623
2S.1%
2,875
30.3%
681
29.6%
Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month
5,743
S4.9%
3,838
40.S%
687
29.9%
By Industry
"Goods Producing"
2,312
22.1%
1,933
20.4%
310
13.S%
"Trade, Transportation, and Utilities"
2,279
21.8%
1,835
19.4%
482
21.0%
"All Other Services"
5,863
S6.1%
5,713
60.3%
1,50765.6%
Sources: US Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
City of Elk River: Inflow/Outflow
r' 'r
Now1hen
i
Elk Ri,ei
TYr i I�
9,48+1 10,454
T .. .
,o
2299 -
Sao
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 17
EMPLOYMENT
Summary of Employment Trends
Resident Labor Force
• Resident employment in Sherburne County increased by approximately 12,780 people be-
tween 2000 and 2017 (33.7%).
• The unemployment rate was in 2017 was 3.9% in Sherburne County compared to 3.6% in
Minnesota and 4.4% in U.S. The unemployment rate in Elk River has been steadily declining
since its high in 2009 of 9.1%.
Covered Employment by Industry
• The average number of employees rose 30.8% (2,734) between 2000 and 2016 in Elk River.
In Elk River, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities accounted for the largest proportion of em-
ployment, making up 25% of employment by industry in 2016. Education and Health Ser-
vices has the next highest concentration of employees at 20%.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 18
TABLE E-4
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2017
Employer
Products/Services Employee Count
ISD #728
Education
1,125
Sherburne County
Government
595
Cretex Companies, Inc.
Precast Concrete Products
550
Wal-Mart
Retail Store
354
Coborn's
Grocery Store
265
Great River Energy
Electric Utility
250
Elk River Nursing Home
Nursing Care
240
Guardian Angels of Elk River, Inc
Nursing Care/Housing
200
The Home Depot
Retail Store
200
Sportech, Inc
Plastics Thermoforming
185
City of Elk River
Government
183
Tescom Corporation
Pressure Control Devices
173
Menards
Retail Store
150
First National Financial Services
Financial Institution
142
Avalon Home Care
Home Health Care
110
E & O Tool and Plastics, Inc
Injection Molding
110
The Bank of Elk River
Financial Institution
107
Metal Craft Machine & Engineering
Precision Machining
105
Cub Foods
Grocery Store
100
Total
5,144
Sources: Sherburne County; City of Elk River; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Summary of Employment Trends
Resident Labor Force
• Resident employment in Sherburne County increased by approximately 12,780 people be-
tween 2000 and 2017 (33.7%).
• The unemployment rate was in 2017 was 3.9% in Sherburne County compared to 3.6% in
Minnesota and 4.4% in U.S. The unemployment rate in Elk River has been steadily declining
since its high in 2009 of 9.1%.
Covered Employment by Industry
• The average number of employees rose 30.8% (2,734) between 2000 and 2016 in Elk River.
In Elk River, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities accounted for the largest proportion of em-
ployment, making up 25% of employment by industry in 2016. Education and Health Ser-
vices has the next highest concentration of employees at 20%.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 18
EMPLOYMENT
• All but the Information and Financial Services sectors increased the number of employees
since 2000. The information sector decreased by 42 employees (39%) and the Financial Ser-
vices sector declined by 41 employees (11%).
• The Education and Health Services sector experienced the largest gain in employees of 951
(70%) followed by the Professional and Business Services sector growing by 416 employees
(46%).
Inflow/Outflow
• Table E-3 on page 18 provides a summary of the inflow and outflow of workers in the City of
Elk River. Outflow reflects the number of workers living in the City of Elk River, or the Mar-
ket Area, but working in an area other than where they live, while inflow measures the
number of workers that are employed in the City of Elk River, or the Market Area, but live
outside those areas. Interior flow reflects the number of workers that both live and work in
the City of Elk River and live and work in the Market Area.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 19
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Housing Characteristics
Residential New Construction (Total Units)
Elk River
2000-2017
350
300
285
a 300 — - . —...— — ■Single -Family
v
N ■Town/Twinhomes
250 22 235.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.
194 95 ■Multi-family3+Units
E 200 172 162 .—.—.—.—.—._ _.—.—.—.—...-
a 145150
- 150 9 04 .......................113
100 86 76 ............ 82-656%...n
53
50 12
32 rr. 36
2 16 15 11
0 4
*= 0p 13
LppO Lppti Lpp" Lppb LQpO Lppb LpprO Lpp, Lpp" Lpp� Lp113 L&11 Lptiti Lp13 Lp,� Lp�S L&10 Lpti�
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 20
TABLE HC -1
RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION
CITY OF ELK RIVER
ANNUAL
BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED
2000 to 2017
Single -Family
Permits Issued
Townhome/ Multifamily
Total Housing
Homes
Twinhome 3+ Units
Units
2000
172
26 86
284
2001
162
18 76
256
2002
194
18 32
244
2003
285
37 228
550
2004
300
12 235
547
2005
195
4 145
344
2006
150
2 98
250
2007
104
0 12
116
2008
25
0 0
25
2009
16
0 4
20
2010
15
0 53
68
2011
11
0 0
11
2012
36
0 0
36
2013
82
0 0
82
2014
68
3 68
139
2015
62
0 0
62
2016
73
2 0
75
2017
113
0 0
113
Total '00 to 10
1,618
117 969
2,704
Total 11' to 17
445
5 68
518
Sources: City of Elk River; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Residential New Construction (Total Units)
Elk River
2000-2017
350
300
285
a 300 — - . —...— — ■Single -Family
v
N ■Town/Twinhomes
250 22 235.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.—.
194 95 ■Multi-family3+Units
E 200 172 162 .—.—.—.—.—._ _.—.—.—.—...-
a 145150
- 150 9 04 .......................113
100 86 76 ............ 82-656%...n
53
50 12
32 rr. 36
2 16 15 11
0 4
*= 0p 13
LppO Lppti Lpp" Lppb LQpO Lppb LpprO Lpp, Lpp" Lpp� Lp113 L&11 Lptiti Lp13 Lp,� Lp�S L&10 Lpti�
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 20
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
TABLE HC -2
HOUSING STOCK BY UNITS IN STRUCTURE
ELK RIVER
2010 and 2016
No Pct.715,401-
Owneroccupied:
6,653 100.0
1, detached
5,445 81.8
1, attached
1,115 16.8
546 8.5
2 to 4 units
45 0.7
66 1.0
5 -to 9-plex
0 0.0
0 0.0
10 to 19 units
0 0.0
33 0.5
20 to 49 units
0 0.0
0 0.0
50+units
33 0.5
65 1.0
Mobile home
15 0.2
0 0.0
Renter occupied:
1,306 100.0
1,960 100.0
1, detached
242 18.5
497 25.4
1, attached
126 9.6
448 22.9
2 to 4 units
88 6.7
116 5.9
5- to 9-plex
134 10.3
75 3.8
10 to 19 units
247 18.9
357 18.2
20 to 49 units
296 22.7
367 18.7
50+units
160 12.3
100 5.1
Mobile home
13 1.0
0 0.0
Total occupied:
7,959 100.0
8,367 100.0
1, detached
5,687 71.5
6,194 74.0
1, attached
1,241 15.6
994 11.9
2 to 4 units
133 1.7
182 2.2
5- to 9-plex
134 1.7
75 0.9
10 to 19 units
247 3.1
390 4.7
20 to 49 units
296 3.7
367 4.4
50+units
193 2.4
165 2.0
Mobile home
28 0.41
0 0.0
* Data is from US Census, American Community Survey (5 -Year Estimate)
Sources: US Census Bureau, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 21
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Summary of Housing Characteristics
Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present
Maxfield Research obtained data from the City of Elk River on the number of building permits
issued for new housing units in Elk River from 2000 to 2017. Table HC -1 on page 20 displays
permits issued for single-family and multifamily dwellings. Multifamily units usually include
both for -sale (condominium, twinhomes, and townhomes) and rental projects. The following
are key points about housing development since 2000.
• In 2017, the City of Elk River permitted 113 residential units, the most residential units per-
mitted in a single year since prior to the onset of the Great Recession.
• On average, the City of Elk River permits 90 single-family units, 6.5 townhome/twinhome
units, and 54 multi -family units per year since 2000.
• From 2008 to 2016, Elk River averaged only 43 single-family units, less than 1 town-
home/twinhome units, and 14 multifamily units per year.
• Since 2013, there has been 398 single family units, five townhome units and 68 multifamily
rental units permitted. This is an average of 80 single family units and 94 units overall over
the five year period.
Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type)
• The dominant housing type in the Market Area is the single-family detached home, repre-
senting an estimated 89% of all owner -occupied housing units and 25% of renter -occupied
housing units as of 2016.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 22
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RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Elk River General Occupancy Rental Housing Locations
175th Ave NW
e
9j'0SI NE
t
9J,h Z 92nd St NE 190014
91.t Sr Sr 44 m OOl,>ntl Av t.'.
NF a e
_ Q.6km .j. 90th $t NE �5� 1 tilyl pye NW I%t•.r In NSN
101
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Market Rate
Or
Granite Shores
2nd:.tNW
N 41 CIH F,ul
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r6 —n'=1wL'
187nd
Park
6.
Elk Park Estates
7.
Elk Ridge Estates
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1
River Garden Apartments
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titj.
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13.
117th Ayi
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175th Ave NW
e
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t
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NF a e
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101
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Market Rate
Or
Granite Shores
2nd:.tNW
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3.
Lion's Park
4.
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` w .
187nd
el
6.
Elk Park Estates
7.
Elk Ridge Estates
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9.
Elk Crossings/School Street
181.1A—NW
River Garden Apartments
4
Pineview Estates
12.
Lake Orono Estates
13.
Oak Crest Apartments
Invy
Ciyp.PaM
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____
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Sl NE G 1 ,. GSh.j'
11y
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Otsego
96th S1
175th Ave NW
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t
9J,h Z 92nd St NE 190014
91.t Sr Sr 44 m OOl,>ntl Av t.'.
NF a e
_ Q.6km .j. 90th $t NE �5� 1 tilyl pye NW I%t•.r In NSN
101
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Market Rate
1.
Granite Shores
2.
Evans Meadows
3.
Lion's Park
4.
Ridgewood Manor
5.
Tara Hills Estates
6.
Elk Park Estates
7.
Elk Ridge Estates
8.
Balmoral Apartments
9.
Elk Crossings/School Street
10.
River Garden Apartments
11.
Pineview Estates
12.
Lake Orono Estates
13.
Oak Crest Apartments
Key:
Affordable
14.
The Depot at Elk River Station
15.
Jackson Place
16.
Dove Tree Apartments
17.
Dove Terrace Apartments
18.
Elk Ridge Manor
19.
Coachman Ridge
Section 8
20. Lanesboro Heights Townhomes
21. Auburn Place
60+Units
40-59 Units
21-39 Units
Less than 20 Units
FA
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 26
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2
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Meado"aiF
ao' Halghls
Park
m
0
ro7�iJ i.rp NW' - _
Elk River Senior Housing Locations
rr u
8.0
cl-erburne
County
Fairgrounds
r.ak
9m nna
Park
-z Mla—.Ppl Rd HW
Ry fro q
e f w z
w
otsego95th St NE
tkm r.l •,t Sf N,c
1 mi
Maxfield Research & Consultine LLC
2.
a
z
x i
C
rJah Knoll
Park
y 4
Q4rlrupl Sr NW
3 `o tt5yl
z
o ark
Park z 3
N 0. Park N �
n a
° = c
Elk w m
iyer r 7
M14a N Sf
3. • 4.1%6�
Main At
5.
Key:
Adult/Few-Services Ownership
1. Pullman Place
2. Elk Run Village
Adult/Few-Services Rental
Market Rate
3. Elk Terrace
4. Evans Park
5. Riverview Apartments
Subsidized
5. Riverview Apartments
6. Angel Ridge
7. Guardian Oaks
Assisted Living
8. Guardian Angels by the Lake
Memory Care
8. Guardian Angels by the Lake
Under Construction
9. Elk River Senior Housing
10. Guardian Angels - Otsego
Hlghlalla.
East Park
r'
g93ro,
c�, NVJ
Royal
Valle
1=' ,il
Birch
Meado
Park
yZ
z
Trott Brack
Farm, Park
182.t Ave NW -
Hillslde
City Park
2
m
Iri 1,
90th -SINE- - cue ';`171st Ave NN;
60 + Units
40-59 Units
21-39 Units
Less than 20 Units
no
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 29
N`t'l
M'eoOOWL.flu
�r
6 V 1�
R
ornnn
i_a rra
8.0
cl-erburne
County
Fairgrounds
r.ak
9m nna
Park
-z Mla—.Ppl Rd HW
Ry fro q
e f w z
w
otsego95th St NE
tkm r.l •,t Sf N,c
1 mi
Maxfield Research & Consultine LLC
2.
a
z
x i
C
rJah Knoll
Park
y 4
Q4rlrupl Sr NW
3 `o tt5yl
z
o ark
Park z 3
N 0. Park N �
n a
° = c
Elk w m
iyer r 7
M14a N Sf
3. • 4.1%6�
Main At
5.
Key:
Adult/Few-Services Ownership
1. Pullman Place
2. Elk Run Village
Adult/Few-Services Rental
Market Rate
3. Elk Terrace
4. Evans Park
5. Riverview Apartments
Subsidized
5. Riverview Apartments
6. Angel Ridge
7. Guardian Oaks
Assisted Living
8. Guardian Angels by the Lake
Memory Care
8. Guardian Angels by the Lake
Under Construction
9. Elk River Senior Housing
10. Guardian Angels - Otsego
Hlghlalla.
East Park
r'
g93ro,
c�, NVJ
Royal
Valle
1=' ,il
Birch
Meado
Park
yZ
z
Trott Brack
Farm, Park
182.t Ave NW -
Hillslde
City Park
2
m
Iri 1,
90th -SINE- - cue ';`171st Ave NN;
60 + Units
40-59 Units
21-39 Units
Less than 20 Units
no
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 29
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Summary of Elk River Competitive Multifamily Properties
Among 983 general occupancy units, 64% were market rates units, 30% were affordable units
and only 6% were subsidized units. There has been no new multifamily developments con-
structed since the previous study in 2015.
Market Rate Rentals in Eik River
• In total there were 14 market rate apartments with 16 units or more in Elk River. Our sur-
vey indicated that the overall vacancy rate among all property types was nearly 6.2%, with
39 vacant units among 633 total units. This however includes the Elk Park Estates apart-
ments that account for 27 of the vacant units. Excluding this property, the vacancy rate falls
to 2.1%. This is well below the recommended 5.0% equilibrium to account for sufficient
turnover in the market. Thus, pent-up demand exists for more market rate rental units.
• Elk Park Estates is an anomaly in the market as in the prior 2015 study had 25 vacancies.
This property is the Ione poorly performing larger rental development in the city.
Subsidized and Affordable Rentals in Eik River
• The overall vacancy rate among all property types was 0.0% among 350 total units. No
available units in the market indicates that there is additional need for affordable and/or
subsidized units in Elk River.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 30
FIGURE 1
2017 MHFA/HUD Income Limits
Sherburne County
Income Limits by Household Size
1 phh
2 phh
3 phh 11 4 phh 5phh
6phh
7phh
8phh
30% of median
$18,990
$21,720
$24,420 $27,120 $29,310
$31,470
$33,630
$35,820
50% of median
$31,650
$36,200
$40,700 $45,200 $48,850
$52,450
$56,050
$59,700
60% of median
$37,980
$43,440
$48,840 $54,240 $58,620
$62,940
$67,260
$71,640
Maximum Gross Rents by Bedroom Size
0 BR
1BR
2BR 3BR
30% of median
$474
$508
$610 $705
50% of median
$791
$848
$1,017 $1,175
60% of median
$949
$1,017
$1,221 $1,410
Sources: MHFA; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Summary of Elk River Competitive Multifamily Properties
Among 983 general occupancy units, 64% were market rates units, 30% were affordable units
and only 6% were subsidized units. There has been no new multifamily developments con-
structed since the previous study in 2015.
Market Rate Rentals in Eik River
• In total there were 14 market rate apartments with 16 units or more in Elk River. Our sur-
vey indicated that the overall vacancy rate among all property types was nearly 6.2%, with
39 vacant units among 633 total units. This however includes the Elk Park Estates apart-
ments that account for 27 of the vacant units. Excluding this property, the vacancy rate falls
to 2.1%. This is well below the recommended 5.0% equilibrium to account for sufficient
turnover in the market. Thus, pent-up demand exists for more market rate rental units.
• Elk Park Estates is an anomaly in the market as in the prior 2015 study had 25 vacancies.
This property is the Ione poorly performing larger rental development in the city.
Subsidized and Affordable Rentals in Eik River
• The overall vacancy rate among all property types was 0.0% among 350 total units. No
available units in the market indicates that there is additional need for affordable and/or
subsidized units in Elk River.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 30
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Senior Housing in Eik River
Maxfield Research surveyed the 405 senior housing units in Elk River. We identified one va-
cant unit, resulting in an overall vacancy rate of 0.2%. Generally, the equilibrium for senior
housing ranges from a 5% to 7% vacancy rate. Thus, the current rate indicates pent up de-
mand for additional senior housing at all levels.
Planned or Pending G. 0. and Senior Housing Developments Eik River
Hearth Development is currently building the 100 -unit Elk River Senior Living senior housing
project in Elk River. The project is located at the intersection of 181St Avenue NW and Line
Avenue NW. The project will include 36 congregate units (independent living with light ser-
vices), 40 assisted living units, and 24 memory care units. The project is set to be com-
pleted late summer 2018.
• Guardian Angels is developing Riverview Landing in Otsego located just across the river
from Elk River off of Highway 101 in the Waterfront East planned unit development area.
The project which is currently under construction will include 126 assisted living units and
16 memory care units. While this development is not located in Elk River, it is located just
across the border in Otsego and would be directly competitive with Elk River senior housing
projects.
• There is one proposed general occupancy development in Elk River. Patrick Briggs has sub-
mitted a proposal for a 40 -unit mixed income apartment building. The project would be lo-
cated at 6t" Street and Jackson Avenue. The current proposal shows at least eight units that
would be affordable and 32 market rate units. The project would be developed under Tax
Increment Financing. Because the project is recently proposed it is unclear when and if the
building would be developed.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 31
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
For -Sale Housing Resales
$300,000
$ 250,000
$200,000
d
u
L
a
2 $150,000
LA
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Elk River For -Sale Resales- 2000 to 2017
_b% 200? 2001 ?ooh _oq20os ?00 ?oo, ?po& 2009 2010 2011 201� ?010 ?o1A 20VS ?016 ?01,
Year
700
600
500
400
d
d
300 °C
200
100
0
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 32
TABLE FS -1
HOME RESALES
CITY
OF ELK RIVER
2000 to 2017
No.
Avg. Sales
Avg. %
Med. Sales
Median %
Days on Market
Cumul.
DOM'
% Lender
Year
Sold
Price
Change
Price
Change
Avg.
Median
Avg.
Median
Mediated
2000
353
$172,769
-
$159,000
-
49
25
2005
519
$254,038
6.5%
$234,900
4.7%
88
61
-
-
-
2010
313
$173,153
4.2%
$160,000
1.3%
70
49
134
77
69.9%
2011
382
$145,781
-15.8%
$132,000
-17.5%
88
59
147
106
70.2%
2012
390
$162,862
11.7%
$157,000
18.9%
81
50
114
' 68
56.7%
2013
445
$184,650
13.4%
$172,000
9.6%
56
35
82
47
33.8%
2014
466
$207,424
12.3%
$195,000
13.4%
60
42
78
49
17.6%
2015
532
$220,638
6.4%
$214,450
10.0%
51
33
74
41
10.7%
2016
496
$234,248
6.2%
$230,500
7.5%
42
23
61
' 29
7.4%
2017
583
$258,287
10.3%
$245,000
6.3%
41
25
51
30
4.0%
Total 00'-17'
7,268
Summary 00' to
10'
Change
0.2%
0.6%
Average
428
$210,270
$193,977
70
48
170
124
Summary 11' to
17'
Change
77.2%
85.6%
Average
471
$201,984
$1920279
60
38
53
' Cumulative Days on Market initiated in 2006. Cumulative days equals the number of days on
market over the course
of the past
year (i.e.
covers number
of days if the property was
relisted)
z Lender Mediated
Properties
include foreclosures and short
sales. MLS data for this property type began in July 2008.
Sources: Regional Multiple
Listing Service
of Minnesota,
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
$300,000
$ 250,000
$200,000
d
u
L
a
2 $150,000
LA
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Elk River For -Sale Resales- 2000 to 2017
_b% 200? 2001 ?ooh _oq20os ?00 ?oo, ?po& 2009 2010 2011 201� ?010 ?o1A 20VS ?016 ?01,
Year
700
600
500
400
d
d
300 °C
200
100
0
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 32
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 33
TABLE FS -2
SINGLE-FAMILY AND MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL SALES
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2000 through 2017
Median
Average
Number
Selling
%
Selling
%
Year
of Sales
Price Chg.
Price
Chg.
Single -Family
2000
318
$162,400
-
$175,779
--
2005
411
$251,900
5.3%
$272,383
6.3%
2010
235
$181,000
4.7%
$193,931
5.8%
2011
273
$160,000
-11.6%
$166,955
-13.9%
2012
293
$175,000
9.4%
$181,439
8.7%
2013
350
$189,450
8.3%
$202,385
11.5%
2014
353
$214,900
13.4%
$225,623
11.5%
2015
404
$237,536
10.5%
$228,000
1.1%
2016
367
$256,356
7.9%
$242,396
6.3%
2017
437
$282,550
10.2%
$269,900
11.3%
Pct. Change
00'- 17'
37.4%
74.0%
53.5%
Multifamily*
2000
35
$142,580
--
$145,163
--
2005
108
$172,775
3.4%
$184,227
2.8%
2010
78
$107,442
7.4%
$110,555
3.3%
2011
109
$90,000
-16.2%
$92,842
-16.0%
2012
97
$105,000
16.7%
$106,746
15.0%
2013
95
$117,500
11.9%
$119,313
11.8%
2014
113
$135,000
14.9%
$150,570
26.2%
2015
128
$167,304
23.9%
$152,450
1.2%
2016
129
$172,353
3.0%
$155,000
1.7%
2017
146
$185,665
7.7%
$167,500
8.1%
Pct. Change
00'- 17'
317.1%
30.2%
15.4%
* Multifamily includes twinhomes, townhomes, and condominiums (cooperatives are typically
not listed in the
MLS)
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 33
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE FS -3
HOME RESALES BY SALES PRICE & PRODUCT TYPE
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2017
Under $100,000
2
0.5%
1
0.7%
3
0.5%
$100,000 to $149,999
6
1.4%
20
13.7%
26
4.5%
$150,000 to $199,999
53
12.1%
86
58.9%
139
23.8%
$200,000 to $249,999
116
26.5%
20
13.7%
136
23.3%
$250,000 to $299,999
111
25.4%
16
11.0%
127
21.8%
$300,000 to $349,999
77
17.6%
2
1.4%
79
13.6%
$350,000 to $399,999
42
9.6%
1
0.7%
43
7.4%
$400,000 to 499,999
28
6.4%
0
0.0%
28
4.8%
$500,000+
2
0.5%
0
0.0%
2
0.3%
Total
437
100.0%
146
100.0%
583
100.0%
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
a
w 40.0%
0
a 30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Resales by Price Point & Type: 2017
72.6%
■SF ■MF
51.9%
27.2%
o
13.5
%
0.5%0. %
■ 0.5%
<$100k $100k -$200k $200k -$300k $300k -$400k $400k -$500k $500k+
Sales Price
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 34
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE FS -4
HOUSING SALES PER SQUARE FOOT (PSF)
ELK RIVER
2005 to 2017
2005
$122
$131
$116
$140
2006
$117
$126
$114
$127
2007
$113
$121
$113
$113
2008
$92
$98
$90
$118
2009
$79
$82
$76
$103
2010
$82
$85
$79
$107
2011
$69
$72
$68
$111
2012
$76
$80
$76
$130
2013
$86
$92
$84
$130
2014
$94
$98
$91
$136
2015
$100
$105
$99
$148
2016
$106
$114
$104
$174
2017
$114
$122
$112
$171
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
$140
$120
$100
$80
LL
N
a
$60
$40
$20
$0
Elk River Sales per Square Foot (PSF)
N N N N N N N N N N N N N
O O O O O O O O O O O O O
(I7 01 V 00 l0 O F-` N W A l!i 01 V
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 35
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
16
14
12
10
N
i
N 8
J
w
0 6
u
4
2
0
TABLE FS -5
HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR -SALE
CITY OF ELK RIVER
February 2018
Price Range
No. Pct.
No. Pct.
< $99,999
0 0.0%
0 0.0%
$100,000 to $149,999
1 2.3%
1 10.0%
$150,000 to $174,999
1 2.3%
1 10.0%
$175,000 to $199,999
3 7.0%
1 10.0%
$200,000 to $249,999
3 7.0%
3 30.0%
$250,000 to $299,999
13 30.2%
1 10.0%
$300,000 to $349,999
8 18.6%
3 30.0%
$350,000 to $399,999
6 14.0%
0 0.0%
$400,000 and Over
8 18.6%
0 0.0%
43 100%
10 100%
Minimum
$109,900
$148,000
Maximum
$674,000
$349,150
Median
$305,990
$217,950
Average
$322,646
$237,245
i Includes townhomes (attached
& detached), twinhomes,
and
condominiums
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Elk River Active Listings - February 2018
Under$100k $100kto $150kto $200kto $250kto $300kto $400k+
$149.9k $199.9k $249.9k $299.9k $399.9k
List Price
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 36
LA
7A
J
a
z
a
F-
LU
Y
a
W
J
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FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
Townhomes
3 -level split+
a, Split entry
CL
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2
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1 story
0.0%
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
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$200,000
00
a $150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Listings by Housing Type - Elk River
5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Pct.
1.2%
20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Average List Price by Type
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 38
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FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
Summary of For Sale Market Conditions
Residential Resales
• The number of home sales reached 583 in 2017 which is the highest figure since 2004. The
average days on market continues to decline and remains low in 2017 at 51 days and a me-
dian of 30 days.
Since 2015, the median sales price of residential properties has risen 18%, from $214,450 in
2013 to $245,000 in 2017. Single-family homes during this time increased 19% from
$237,536 to $282,550 while multifamily homes increased 11% from $167,304 to $185,665.
Home resale prices have been rising steadily since the lowest point in 2011.
In 2017, 69% of home sales range from $150,000 to $299,999 with the largest proportion of
residential resales occurred in the $150,000 to $199,999 bracket with 24% of the sales oc-
curring. The majority of sales (62%) in this price point were multifamily units. Homes that
sold from $200,000 to $249,999 accounted for 23% of total sales in 2017 and consisted of
85% single-family units. Another 22% of homes were sold between $250,000 and $299,999
with 87% consisting of single-family units.
Active Listings
The median list price for single family homes in Elk River was $305,990 in February 2018
compared to $279,900 back in August 2015. Multifamily homes listed in February 2018 had
a median list price of $217,950 which is relatively similar to that back in August 2015 at
$215,725.
• There was a total of 53 homes listed for sale in February 2018 compared to 150 homes back
in August 2015. The difference can be attributed to the time of year with less homes typi-
cally listed during winter months. Single family listings accounted for 81% of the listings.
• On average, multi -family listings were slightly newer, with an average year built of 2005,
compared to an average year built of 2003 for single-family homes. This indicates that a
number of active listings are newly constructed homes
Lot Supply
• There are 161 lots available in active subdivisions with 81 lots available in newer subdivision
active since 2017. The largest proportion of lots are in Miske Meadows subdivision with 51
vacant developable lots with homes marketing from $250,000 to $400,000.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 41
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
There is a total of 318 future single family lots planned in Elk River. 222 of lots are located
in currently active subdivisions (Miske Meadows, River Park, and Woodland Hills). Another
57 lots are located in recently absorbed subdivisions (Eagles Marsh and Hillside Estates).
The remaining 39 future lots are in recently platted subdivisions (Anborn, Trace Heights,
and Cranberry Ridge).
• Only one multifamily townhome development is currently active (Boulder Point) with 4 va-
cant developable lots. Tall Pines has plans for 26 future townhome units.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 42
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for For -Sale Housing
TABLE HD-1
FOR -SALE HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 to 2025
Demand from Projected Household Growth
Projected HH growth under age 65 in the Market Area 2017 to 2025'
415
(times) % propensity to own
x 76.5%
(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth
= 317
Demand from Existing Owner Households
Number of owner households (age 64 and younger) in Market Area (2017)3
5,287
(times) Estimated percent of owner turnover
x 30%
(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover
= 1,586
(times) Estimated percent desiring new housing
x 10.0%
159
(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2017 to 2025
= 476
(times) Demand from outside Elk River Market Area
15%
(equals) Total demand potential for ownership housing, 2017 to 2025
560
(times) Percent desiring for -sale single-family vs. multifamily6
x 85% 15%
(equals) Total demand potential for new single-family & multifamily for -sale housing
= 476 84
(minus) Units marketing or approved platted lots (undeveloped and developed lots)6
161 4
(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy for -sale housing
= 315 80
1 Estimated household growth based on data from Table D-1 as adjusted by Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
z Pct. of owner households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census American Community Survey - 2016)
3 Estimate based on 2016 owner households under age 65 (US Census American Community Survey)
° Based on on turnover from 2010 American Community Survey for households moving over 10 -year period.
5 Based on preference for housing type and land availability
6Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot supply which includes individual lots and lots in older
non -marketing subdivisions.
Multi -family demand includes demand for townhomes, detached townhomes, twinhomes, and condominium units.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts (increasing older adult popula-
tion), we project 85% of the for -sale owners will prefer traditional single-family product types
while the remaining 15% will prefer a maintenance -free multi -family product (i.e. twin homes,
townhomes, or condominiums).
We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are under construction or approved.
After subtracting the current lot supply in subdivisions (161 total single-family and four
multifamily lots) we find total demand through 2025 resulting in 315 single-family lots and 80
multifamily lots.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 43
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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
We find demand for 34 subsidized units, 101 affordable units and 210 market rate units. After
subtracting the proposed rental development (40 unit mixed income development) results in
demand for 34 subsidized units, 93 affordable units and 172 market rate units in Elk River
through 2025.
Estimated Demand for Independent/Few Service Senior Housing
TABLE HD -3
MARKET RATE ADULT/FEW SERVICES HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
# of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000'
# of Households w/ Incomes of $24,999 to $34,999'
(times ) Homeownership Rate
(equals) Total Potential Market Base
(times) Potential Capture Rate
(equals) Demand Potential
Potential Demand from Market Area Residents
(plus Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)z
(equals) Total Demand Potential
(times) % by Product Type
(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type
(minus) Existing and Pending MR Active Adult Units3
(equals) Excess Demand for MR Active Adult Units
Age of Householder
55-64
65-74
75+
1,307
741
380
+ 89
83
103
x 78%
88%
63%
= 1,376
814
445
x 0.5%
5.0%
15.0%
= 7
41
67
114
+
38
=
152
Owner-
Renter -
Occupied
Occupied
x 40%
x 60%
= 61
= 91
Age of Householder
55-64
1,329
+ 91
K 78%
65-74
849
89
88%
75+
401
115
63%
= 1,400
927
473
x 0.5%
5.0%
15.0%
= 7
46
71
=
124
+
41
=
166
Owner-
Renter -
Occupied
Occupied
x 40%
x
60%
= 66
=
99
- 111 - 77 111 - 77
0 = 14 = 0 = 22
' 2020 calculations define income -qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner households with incomes
between $30,000 and $39,999.
Z Based on project manager interviews and historical trends. We estimate that roughly 40% of demand will come from outside the markt area.
3 Existing and pending projects are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy). 2022 includes the Elk River Senior Living development currently
under construction.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Total demand for 14 renter occupied units in 2017 while demand for owner -occupied housing
is being absorbed by the current supply. Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that
households with incomes of $40,000 or more and homeowners with incomes of $30,000 to
$39,999 would income qualify for market rate independent senior housing in 2022. It is pro-
jected demand for adult owner -occupied will continue to absorbed by existing units while de-
mand exists for 22 adult rental units in the City of Elk River through 2022.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 45
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for Affordable and Subsidized Independent Senior Housing
TABLE HD -5
SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
TABLE HD -4
2017
2022
AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT SENIOR
HOUSING DEMAND
331
(times) Percent of Income Qualified Seniors Needing/Desiring Subsidized Senior Housing
x 30%
ELK RIVER
(equals) Demand Potenital from Market Area residents
= 88
99
(plus) Demand From Ouside the Market Area (40%)
+ 58
2017 & 2022
(equals) Total Demand Potential for Subsidized Senior Housing in Market Area
146
166
(minus) Existing & Pending Subsidized Senior Units in Market Area*
114
114
(equals) Total Market Area Subsidized Senior Housing Demand Potential
= 32
52
Age of Householder
Age of Householder
55-64
65-74 75+
55-64
65-74
75+
# of Households w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $54,400
284
212 254
251
222
284
(times ) Percent Renter Households
x 22%
12% 37%
x 22%
12%
37%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base
= 63
26 93
55
27
105
(times) Potential Capture Rate
x 1.5%
10.0% 20.0%
x 1.5%
10.0%
20.0%
(equals) Demand Potential
= 1
3 19
= 1
3
21
= 22
=
24
Total Market Rate Demand Potential
(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (40%)
+ 15
+
16
(equals) Total Demand Potential
= 37
=
41
(minus) Existing and Pending Aff. Independent Units'
- 0
-
0
(equals) Total Demand Potential in Market Area
= 37
=
41
' Includes existing and pending units at 95% occupancy, or market
equilibrium.
No additional units are planned
through
2022.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HD -5
SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
2017
2022
Age 65+ Households w/Incomes < $20,000
292
331
(times) Percent of Income Qualified Seniors Needing/Desiring Subsidized Senior Housing
x 30%
30%
(equals) Demand Potenital from Market Area residents
= 88
99
(plus) Demand From Ouside the Market Area (40%)
+ 58
66
(equals) Total Demand Potential for Subsidized Senior Housing in Market Area
146
166
(minus) Existing & Pending Subsidized Senior Units in Market Area*
114
114
(equals) Total Market Area Subsidized Senior Housing Demand Potential
= 32
52
* Competitive subsidized units, minus a 7% vacancy rate.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
We estimate that the total demand potential for affordable and subsidized rentals will equal
37 and 32 units respectively in 2017. By 2022, the demand potential will increase to 41 af-
fordable units and 52 subsidized units.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 46
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing
TABLE HD -6
MARKET RATE CONGREGATE HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
# of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000'
# of Households w/ Incomes of $25,000 to $34,999'
(times) Homeownership Rate
(equals) Potential Market
(equals) Total Potential Market Base
(times) Potential Capture Rate
(equals) Demand Potential
Potential Demand from Market Area Residents
(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)
(equals) Total Demand Potential
(minus) Existing and Pending Congregate Units3
(equals) Excess Demand for Congregate Units
Age of
Householder
65-74 75+
741 380
+ 83 103
x 88% 63%
= 73 65
Age of
Householder
65-74 75+
849 401
+ 89 115
x 88% 63%
= 78 72
814 445 = 927 473
x 1.5% 13.0% x 1.5% 13.0%
= 12 + 58 = 14 + 62
= 70 = 75
+ 23 + 25
= 93 = 101
0 34
= 93 = 67
' 2020 calculations define income -qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner
households with incomes between $30,000 and $49,999.
2 The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health
Interview Survey, 2007 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The capture rate used is the percentage of seniors
needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs (seniors needing assistance with ADLs typcially need assistance with multiple IADLs and
are primary candidates for assisted living.).
3 Existing and pending are deducted at market equilibrium (95%
occupancy).
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
We estimate a total demand calculated for 93 congregate units in Elk River in 2017. Adjusting
for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes of $40,000 or more and senior home-
owners with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999 would qualify for congregate housing in
2025. Following the same methodology and accounting for the units under construction at the
Elk River Senior Living development, demand is calculated to decline to 67 units through 2025
in Elk River.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 47
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing
TABLE HD -7
MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
Percent
Number Percent
Number
Needing
Needing Needing
Needing
Age group People Assistance'
Assistance' People Assistance'
Assistance'
75-79 432 25.5%
110 597 25.5%
152
80-84 296 33.6%
99 326 33.6%
110
85+ 343 51.6%
177 345 51.6%
178
Total 1,071
387 1,268
440
Percent Income-Qualified2
53%
53%
Total potential market
205
233
(times) Percent living alone x
53%
53%
(equals) Age/income-qualified singles needing assistance =
109
124
(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)3 +
15
17
(equals) Total age/income-qualified market needing assistance =
123
140
(times) Potential penetration rate x
40%
40%
(equals) Potential demand from PMA residents =
49
56
(plus) Proportion from outside the PMA (30%) +
21
24
(equals) Total potential assisted living demand =
71
80
(minus) Existing market rate assisted living unitss
56
93
(equals) Total excess market rate assisted living demand =
15
0
' The percentage of seniors needing assistance with ADLs, based on the 2005 panels of the Survey of Income and Program
Participation (SIPP) files, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.
z Includes households with incomes of $40,000 or more (who could afford
monthly rents of $4,000+ per month) plus
40% of the
estimated owner households with incomes below $50,000 (who will spend
down assets, including home -equity, in order to live
in assisted living housing).
3 The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project of AAHSA,
ASHA, ALFA, NCAL & NIC) found that 12% of assisted
living residents are couples.
4 We estimate that 60% of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less
advanced senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care
provided in a
skilled care facility.
s Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy.
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC.
We estimate an excess demand for 15 assisted living units in Elk River in 2017. By 2022, total
excess demand for market rate assisted living units in Elk River is projected to be absorbed by
the units at the Elk River Senior Living development under construction.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 48
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing
TABLE HD -8
MEMORY CARE DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
65 to 74 Population
1,655
1,984
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate'
x
2%
x
2%
(equals) Estimated Age 65 to 74 Pop. with Dementia
=
33
=
40
75 to 84 Population
728
923
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate'
x
19%
x
19%
(equals) Estimated Age 75 to 84 Pop. with Dementia
=
138
=
175
85+ Population
343
345
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate'
x
42%
x
42%
(equals) Estimated Age 85+ Pop. with Dementia
=
144
=
=
x
145
360
45%
(equals) Total Senior Population with Dementia
= 315
(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified2
x 45%
(equals) Total Income -Qualified Market Base
=
142
=
162
(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance
x
25%
x
25%
(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care
=
35
=
40
(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (30%)
+
15
+
17
Total Demand Potential
=
51
58
(minus) Existing and Pending Memory Care Units3
-
28
-
50
(equals) Excess Demand for Memory Care Units
=
23
=
8
' Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2009)
2 Income -qualified households consider 3/4 of those with incomes greater than $60,000 plus 15% of homeowners with
incomes below this threshold.
3 Existing memory care units less units occupied by public pay residents and a 7% vacancy rate.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
We estimate the excess demand for memory care units in Elk River to be 23 units in 2017. Fol-
lowing the same methodology, demand is calculated to decrease to 8 memory care units
through 2022 after accounting for the units under construction at the Elk River Senior Living de-
velopment.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 49
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Demand Summary/Overall Housing Recommendations
TABLE CR -1
SUMMARY OF HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF ELK RIVER
February 2017
Type of Use
lGeneral-Occupancy
Rental Units - Market Rate
172
Rental Units - Affordable
93
Rental Units - Subsidized
34
For -Sale Units - Single-family
315
For -Sale Units - Multifamily
80
Total General Occupancy Supportable
694
Age -Restricted (Senior)
Market Rate
Adult Few Services (Active Adult)
14
22
Ownership
0
0
Rental
14
22
Congregate
93
67
Assisted Living
15
0
Memory Care
23
8
Total Market Rate Senior Supportable
145
97
Af ford abl a/Subsidized
Active Adult - Subsidized 32 32
Active Adult -Affordable 37 41
Total Affordable Senior Supportable 69 73
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 50
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
For -Sale Units
- Multifamily
For -Sale Units -Single-family
Rental Units
- Subsidized
Rental Units
- Affordable
Rental Units -
Market Rate
General -Occupancy Demand by Type
2017 to 2025
Units
Senior Housing Demand by Type
2017 & 2022
Adult - Owner I I I I I I I
02017 ■ 2022
I I I I I I
Adult -Rental I I I I I I I
I I I I I I I I
I
Congregate I I • I I
I I I I I• I I I I
Assisted Living I I I I I I I I I
I I I I I I I I
Memory Care I I I I I I I I
I I I I I I I I I I
Affordable I I I I I I
I I I I I I
I I I I I I
Subsidized I I I I I I
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Units
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 51
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
There are over 300 future single family lots planned/proposed based on Table FS -7. If all of
these lots were platted, the above recommended single family lots would be absorbed. The
industry recommends a three- to five-year lot supply. Based on the average lot absorbtion of
83 lots per year from the past three years (2015-2017), the City of Elk River currently falling
short of a three-year lot supply and would need to add nearly 90 lots to the market. A portion
of the planned future lots would be able to bring the commuity to the recommend supply.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 52
TABLE CR -2
RECOMMENDED HOUSING DEVELOPMENT
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2017 to 2025
Purchase Price/
No. of
Pct.
Development
Monthly Rent Range'
Units
of Total
Timing
Owner -Occupied Homes
Single Family Z
Entry-level
>$225,000
65 - 70
24%
2018+
Move -up
$250,000 - $350,000
155 - 165
56%
2018+
Executive
$350,000+
55 - 60
20%
2018+
Total
275 - 295
100%
Townhomes/Detached Townhomes/Twinhomes z
Entry-level
>$200,000
30 - 35
46%
2018+
Move -up
$200,000+
35 - 40
54%
2018+
Total
65 - 75
100%
Total Owner -Occupied
340 - 370
General Occupancy Rental Housing
Market Rate Rental Housing
Apartment -style
$1,000/11311 - $1,500/3BR
100 - 120
67%
2018+
Townhomes
$1,250/2BR - $1,600/3BR
50 - 60
33%
2018+
Total
150 - 180
100%
Affordable Rental Housing
Apartment -style
Moderate Income
60 - 60
67%
2018+
Townhomes
Moderate Income
25 - 35
33%
2018+
Total
85 - 95
100%
Total Renter -Occupied
235 - 275
Senior Housing (i.e. Age Restricted)
Active Adult Affordable Rental
Moderate Income
35 - 40
29%
2018+
Active Adult Market Rate Renta 14
$950/1BR - $1,200/2BR+
50 - 60
43%
2019+
Independent Living (Congregate)
$1,750/11311 - $1,950/2BR
30 - 40
27%
2020+
Total
115 - 140
100%
Total - All Units
690 - 785
Pricing in 2015 dollars. Pricing can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Z Recommendations include the absorption of some
existing previously platted lots.
3 Affordablity subject to income guidelines per MHFA.
See Table HA -1 for Sherburne County Income limits.
° Alternative development concept is to combine active adult affordable and market rate active adult
into mixed -income senior
community
Note - Recommended development does not coincide
with total demand. Elk River may not be able to accommodate all recommended housing
types based on a variety of factors (i.e. development constraints, land availability, etc.)
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
There are over 300 future single family lots planned/proposed based on Table FS -7. If all of
these lots were platted, the above recommended single family lots would be absorbed. The
industry recommends a three- to five-year lot supply. Based on the average lot absorbtion of
83 lots per year from the past three years (2015-2017), the City of Elk River currently falling
short of a three-year lot supply and would need to add nearly 90 lots to the market. A portion
of the planned future lots would be able to bring the commuity to the recommend supply.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 52
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
With the development of Elk River Senior Living and Guardian Angels Riverview Landing which
are both under construction and set to be completed later in 2018, demand for assited living
and memory care senior housing will be absorbed. These newly developed and existing units
will be adequate into the foreseeable future.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 53
Housing and Redevelopment
Authority
Maxfield Housing Study Update
April 2, 2018
Executive Summary
Comprehensive Housing Market Study Update
■ Demand for 864 new housing units through 2025
■ For-sale housing demand is strongest
■ 395 of the 864 units
■ Strong demand for additional market rate 172 units
■ 93 units affordable rental
Elk River Study Area Definition
The draw area for determining current and future housing demand in the City of Elk River is
based on traffic pattern orientation, proximity to other communities, interviews with local offi-
cials and community stakeholders, natural and manmade geographic barriers, and our
knowledge of the draw areas for housing. The Study Area is defined as Elk River proper.
i
KII 4 c+l•Gi
YI(ai9 L.YN 4N y
l
Elk River ,
sh+'+F re xis ws
Nti.�thM
5
3
0 e
wn si dl V-A..ww
t
+,o
..-qr IF• 4d Ap".,pwlWi Ram scy
tltr 131 saw,crwp II '�' 'r
` t .
f y.11 4 .r 4`4rs
------------
MAMELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 2
Population and
Household Projections
2010-2025
■ Population gain over 3,230 (14%)
■ Ages 65-74largestgrowth of 1 ,118 people (94%)
■ All other age cohorts will experience a decline in
population or experience nominal growth
Elk River
Population Trends
1990 - 2020
25,OW
25,5161 26,20
2 '-7 4
16,447
CL
06 11,143
5,"
01990 0 20DO 0 -7. 02017 0 2022 02025 02030
Elk River Study Area
Household Trends
1990- 2020
12,,GDO
10,00 ---------------- -----------------------
---------------- - 8,617 9,005 9,298 9,7G4 ------
S.C30
------- ---
4,OW ------
3.732
2,DW ------
0
0 1qqU 0)-000 0 1 0 1... 0 0 202b 0 203D, Li
Adult Population Age Distribution
Elk River
2000 to 2025
%c)OO -—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—
i
000 . ------------(N 6
� ~ I
000 --------
66 % O -------------- 00 " q 2 -----------
St
4,000 Lr� --------�
0. i
3,000 ---- —
� I
JO 3 ¥ o rI% L.D (D r I
en
t�O . � % 7
O -
18 /! 25 41 45-64 +
Are Cohort
2000 2010 2017 ■ 2022 2025
Elk River
Homeowners by Age of Householder -2616
1,800 87.9% 166%
1,600 82.4% 80.0°t96%
7 7.996
1,400 68.0% 86%
y 3.2% 70%
1,300 1.644 1$}
132 66% s
a 1,000 1,288
F 56%
800
46% 3
66{1 719
40{1 32.1x,} OND.ofHDmeowners
36%
i0{] �'Horreownersn D Ratr
401 26% z
34 16%
0 6%
Age of Householder
Elk River
Renters by Age of Householder -2016
600 1(1[796
�No-ofRer[es 60%
500 90%
67.9% #Pct Renters
400 7 70% n
33
60%
300 36,896 50%
40%
z 2669 3096
166 12.1 20%
�3 1096
{7 096
Age of Householder
Household Income and
Area Median Income
HUD dunes affordable housing costs as 30% of
household adjusted gross income
■ Elk River median income of $78,428 per year can
afford a monthly housing cost of $1 ,956
■ Single-family home value of $235,284 - $273,868
Growth and Income Trends by Age of Houhod er
Elk River
2017 to 2022
2,000 $120 00
\BOO ------------------ -- -------- �2017
0 2022
tBOO ----------- a7 £ o _ 20!5 _. $1000000
1,400 ----- — — / -- i GI5—-—-—-—-—-—-
$e%000 CW
ƒ IOZOO ------ -- _ -- --- --------- §
-- -- --- $ E
D 10000 -- --------- $6%000 c
, _
Z: ROO —• —• —• -
$ -��4�— q � � °
$4 0.00O 2
} 600 -------- -- ^ # - q
2 rw
400 ----- --
$70oOOO
ZOO >
O $O
1§-24 2y34 aye 4 w54 55-EA 65 -G 75+
AJe of Householder
a
Household Income by
Age of Householder
■ Household income of $55,477 equates to a monthly
housing cost of about $1,386
■ Households incomes below $15,000 are typically a
market for deep subsidy rental housing
■ In 2016, this was about 13% of renters
Rropen5Ity to Rent by Household Income
E I k River, 2016 (5-Year ACS
5 O 1.00 ;
4 S --•---•---- -- ; i ---•----- 90%
RLmiWri
400 ------------------------ ------------- --•---•----- �%Rrn[ers 80%
3501 --•---•-------------•-------- —•------- — 70%
0
------
—•--- — — — 489 ----- -------- — — 5096
42Q
2030 --•---•-------------•------- — — — 40%
150 i -----------•------- — — — 30%
100 —! -----------•------- — — — — 209
01
so —•— — --- -- — I 10%
1 ❑- 0%
. Employment Trends
Sherburne County
■ Employment increased by 12,780 from 2000-17
■ 2017 unemployment rate 3.9%
3.6% in MN
■ 4.4% in US
■ The average number of employees rose 30.8%
between 2000 and 2016.
■ Education and Health Svcs. Sector 951 (70%) increase
■ Professional and Business Services Sector 416
employees (46%) increase
TABLE E-3
CON MLIiINGINFLOWiOUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS
CITY OF ELIC RIVER
2015
CKVTotal 10A64 1w.0% 904" 100.0% 2,299 190
By Age
Workers Aged 29 oryaunger 2,324 22.296 2,393 251% SOS 263%
Workers Aged 36m54 6,315 60.4% S,2jD4 S4.9% 1,151 SD-1%
Workers Aged 55 or older 1,814 17.4% 1,8,64 19.9% 543 23-6%
By Monthly Wage
Workers Earning$1"250 per month or less 2,089 20.0% 2,7-68 29.2% 931 40-S%
Workers Earning$1,251 to$3,333 per month 2,623 25.1% 2,815 30.3% fi81 29-15%
Workers Earn ing More than$3,333 per month 5,743 54.9% 3,938 40.5% 597 29-9%
By lodu"
"Goads Producing" 2,313 22.1% 1,9133 20.4% 310 13-5%
"Trade,Transportation,and Utilities" 2,279 21.9% 1,835 19.4% 492 21.0%
"All Other Services" 5,a63 56.1% 5,713 60.3% 1,.507 65-6%
Sources: US Census Bureau Local Em eatDynamics;Maxfield Research and Consulting,LLC
City of Elk River:Inflow/Outflow
L
_ F -
L0,45
2,29'
5 rrn I�
E P-el P L O Y Pyl E o oa T
TABLE E-4
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
CITY OF ELI[ RIVER
2017
Ern Io r Prod vets Services EMPI c—a Count
I SD #728 E c ucat iot7 1,125
Sherburn-e County Government 595
,"retex Companies, Inc. Precast Conc re to N rod u tts 55
Wal-Mart Retail Store B54
'L"oborn's Gfi over w Store 265
Great River Energy} Electric Otility 250
Elk Riser Nursing H on7 a Nursing Care 240
Guard ian Angel s of EI k Rive r. Irl t Nursing Care/Housing 200
The H on7 a Depot Retai I Store 200
Sporteeh, Inc RI @sties Th e rmoform ing 185
City of Elk River Government 183
Teseom Corporation Pressure Control Dowices 173
M arra rds Retai I Store 150
First National Financial Serwiees Financial Institution 142
Avalon Home Care Home Wealth Gare 110
E & 0 Tool and Plasties, Inc Injection Molding 110
Tlie Bank of Elk River Financial Institution 107
M e to I Graft Machine & Engin.aL ri ng Precision Machining 105
Cub Foods Grocery Store 100
Tota I 5,144
Sources= Sherburne County; City of Elk Riwcr; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
. Housing Characteristics
New Housing Permits
■ In 2017, 113 residential units
■ Since 2013, 398 single family units, 5 townhomes and
68 multifamily rental units
■ The dominate housing type is single-family home at
89% of all owner-occupied and 25% of renter-
occupied units as of 2016
Elk River General Occupancy Rental Housing Locations
FAr:r� ? atyc�a a
101
� u� ..7eersv. Pri Y'
5ut
t�mwlur+rrp s�,ra+a '�'"�'tiw. � i#�4. S �aqT h•o ��
a� — Wyyp
�a... 77{}��r-W 41� ps.
Pao �tl���.```i*(wv .kms Mdu'8
is : F.I rays t' g 1''In YID' N
k `
IiL
� w
t
� idn
4
�La[� �rN551tan A ..
is 44
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e"4+5!vaC r
l9 Si
Maxfield:Research&Consulting,LLC
Key' 60+Un its
Market(tate Affordable 40-59 Units
1. Granite Shores 14_The Depotat Elk Rrver Station 21-39 Units
2. Evans Meadows 15_Jackson Place Less than 24 Un is
3. Lion's Park ifi_ Dove Tree Apartments
4_ Ridgewood Manor 17_ Dove Terrace Apartments
5. Tara Fulls Estates 18_ Elk Ridge Manor
5. Elk Park Estates 19_Coachman Ridge
7. Elk Ridge Estates
B. Balmoral Apartments Section 8
9. Elk Crossings/School Street 2C_ Laneshorc Heights Townhom
10. River Garden Apartnnerm 21. Auburn Place
11. Pineview Estates
12. Lake Orono Estates
13. Oak Crest A,parhnents
- Competitive Multifamily
Properties
Among 983 general occupancy units
■ 64% market rate units
■ 30% affordable
■ 6% subsidized
■ No new multifamily construction since 2015
■ In total, 14 market-rate apartments w/16+ units
■ Corrected vacancy rate among all property types is 2.1 %
■ Demand exists for more market rate rental units
a
Affordable / Subsidized
Property Demand
350 total units
■ The vacancy rate among all property types was 0.0%
■ No available units indicates need for affordable and/or
subsidized units
■ Does not include ER Lodge and Suites
- Senior Housing
Properties
405 senior housing units surveyed
■ Identified one vacant unit - vacancy rate of 0.2%
■ Generally, senior housing equilibrium ranges from 5-
7% vacancy rate
■ Current rate indicates demand for additional senior
housing at all levels
Elk River Senior Housing Locations
,a,Lnspa� 4 _ .
S? _ P. iar!R
n t —
' °L+ L
n
z �
S V'Nlq,
lane
1RRR # acn,:. w �mr nr,ry
�nP Litl,S s z
. 1 Hk "c ;
SM,bun• Mia dr
IOVIRi r,� 8� F 4'.w
baeara-� 5. _
I.xk
an ew W 47,R+ I I,AI lyn k'1Y
I'is.il 4
6n ;
°QBaer al rit
nr�L
3
I rix
awl •ns,S,'P Yilksx Na ,
Maxfield Research u.Consulting LLC
Rey: 60+Units
40-59 Units
Adult/Few-Services Ownership
L Pullman P:'ace 21-39 Units
2- Elk Run Vil age Less than 20 Units
Adult/Few-Services Rental
Market Rate
3- Elk Terraoe
4- Evans Park
5- RiveriewApartmentc
Subsddired
5_ Riverview Apartments
5_ Angel Ridge
7_ Guardian Oaks
Assisted Living
8. Guardian Angels by--,c-xk .
Memory Care
8_ Guardian Angels hythe Lake
U oder Consxnaxion
9_ Elk RuerSenior Housing
10. Guardian Angels-OL—.ego
MAXFI ELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 29
- Planned or Pending
Projects
■ Hearth Development — 100-unit senior housing
■ Projected completion — late summer 2018
■ Guardian Angels
■ 126-unit assisted living
■ 16-unit memory care
■ Jackson Hills Residential Suites — 40-unit mixed
income apartments
. For Sale Market
Conditions
Since 2015
■ Median residential sale prices have risen 18%, from
$214,450 to $245,000
■ Single family list price increased from $279,900 to
$305,990 in Feb of `18
■ 150 homes listed as compared to only 53 homes listed
For Sale in Feb `18
■ 318 future single family lots planned
■ 222 of 318 lots are located in active subdivisions
(Miske Meadows, River Park, and Woodland Hills)
DeMaild S4immaryloverall Housing Recommendations
TABLE CR-1
SUMMARY OF HOUSING 1)EMAND
CITY OF ELK R IV ER
February 2017
Type of Use +
GeneraiLoccupancy
R-armtaI UnAs Markot Rata 172
Renta I Units-Afforda bl a 93
RentaI Units-Subsidized 34
For-Sale Units- 5i'I��I_ ".j."rIl 315
For Sale Units MLI[ifa1-1 I'f so
Fotyi Gemerqi Occu troc Su ortubf-o &94
a �
J1 Restrfc[ed jsi2vi r`
MOiPket Rd20
Adult Ferny Scr4 Lt:'� ;ALLIve AduIL, 14 22
O wnefshi,p 0 0
Rental 14 22
Congregate 93 67
Assisted Liming 15 0
Newory Cary 23 8
F717 Mor°kef Hotr-SrrrrorS 145 �7
Affbf dable Suhsi&zetf
Active Adult Subsidized 32
Active Adult -Affofd ablc 37 rtl
Totaf A orda bie Senior Suppormble 69 T�
Source: Maxfield Research & ConsLIting, LLC
Demand Summary
Over 300 future single family lots planned/proposed
• When platted the recommended single family lots
would be absorbed.
■ Short of 3-year lot supply
■ Need to add 90 lots to meet demand
• With ER Senior Living and Guardian Angels
Riverview Landing, demand for assisted living and
memory care senior housing will be absorbed.
Questions?
Contact: Amanda Othoudt, EDFP
Economic Development Director
Main: 763.635.1042
aothoudtkElkRiverMN.gov