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Agenda • CITY OF ELK RIVER SPECIAL MEETING OF THE PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA Thursday, February 15, 1996 7:00 p.m. Elk River City Hall - Council Chambers ACTION ITEM NUMBER TAKEN 1. CALL MEETING TO ORDER. 2. CONSIDER COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION ID PLAN 3. CONSIDER MASTER PARK AND RECREATION PLAN 4. ADJOURNMENT • DRAFT November 21, 1995 TABLE OF CONTENTS • I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS 2 A. General Data Collection 2 B. Socioeconomic Forecasts 2 C. Travel Demand Modeling 6 1. Trip Generation 6 2. Trip Distribution 13 3. Network Assignments 14 a. Replication 21 b. Ultimate Forecast 21 D. Development of Transportation Plan 23 1. Functional Classification 23 2. System Deficiencies 24 • 3. Remedial Actions 28 a. Improvements to Existing Roadways 28 b. Roadway Additions 30 III. PROPOSED TRANSPORTATION PLAN 36 IV. IMPLEMENTATION 40 • CTP-230.156 230-156-80 DRAFT November 21, 1995 LIST OF FIGURES • FIGURE 1 - Transportation Planning Process 3 FIGURE 2 - Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) and External Zones 5 FIGURE 3 - Ultimate Development Volumes - No Network Improvements . . . . 22 FIGURE 4 - Roadway Classifications - Movement vs. Access Function 25 FIGURE 5 - System Deficiencies 27 FIGURE 6 - Proposed Minor Arterial Additions to Network 32 FIGURE 7 - Ultimate Volumes with Network Additions 35 FIGURE 8 - Ultimate Functional Classification System 37 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 - Existing and Ultimate Forecasted Land Use by TAZ 7 TABLE 2 - Trip Generation Rates 12 TABLE 3 - Trip Distribution Matrices 3A - Existing E-E Trip Table 15 3B - Existing E-I trip Table 16 • 3C - Existing I-I Trip Table 17 3D - Ultimate E-E Trip Table 18 3E - Ultimate E-I Trip Table 19 3F - Ultimate I-I Trip Table 20 TABLE 4 - Functional classification Characteristics for Roadways 26 • CTP-230.156 230-156-80 DRAFT November 21, 1995 INTRODUCTION • The general purpose of a transportation plan is to begin with an existingtransportation g P system, forecast future changes in land use, social and economic conditions, and determine how the transportation system must be revised or enhanced to accommodate these changes. Different types of development environments require different focuses for the transportation planning process. The planning needs of a fully developed metropolitan area are different from those of a commercial/industrial center projecting a growth mode, or a growing suburban "bedroom" community. The needs of one might focus on maintenance of infrastructure and solutions to isolated system deficiencies, while another might need to identify new road corridors and upgrading of existing facilities. The City of Elk River is a free-standing community just outside of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. It is the economic center of Sherburne County with a well established core business district. At the same time, it's proximity to the Twin Cities allows for commutes by Elk River residents to other nearby employment centers. Because of this, the population growth of the City of Elk River is not solely dependent on commercial and industrial growth within City borders. Elk River is served by three major arterials: Trunk Highways 10, 169 and 101. T.H. 10 passes east-west directly through the heart of the central business district. It is a major highway traversing southeast to northwest across the State, from the Twin cities through • St. cloud to Moorhead. As such, it caries a considerable amount of long distance traffic through Elk River. T.H. 169, which traverses the City south to north, also carries significant volumes of thru traffic, particularly recreational traffic traveling north to the Lake Mille Lacs area and beyond. T.H. 101 provides an important connection between T.H.'s 10 and 169 in Elk River and Interstate Highway 94, approximately seven miles to the south. The major geographical features affecting Elk River's transportation system are water features. The Mississippi River forms the southern border of the City. Two bridges cross the river from Otsego to Elk River. The Elk River and Lake Orono form a natural barrier separating the western area from the rest of the City. This river is also spanned by two bridges, one on T.H. 10 and the other on Main Street. II. TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS Figure 1 is a flow chart of the transportation planning process. It assumes that the scope of the study is comprehensive (i.e. a city-wide long range transportation plan). The flow chart identifies the process from data collection through replication of the existing transportation system usage, travel demand forecasting, and finally, creation of a transportation plan. The following sections describe in detail the process that was followed to develop a comprehensive transportation plan for the City of Elk River. • CTP-230.156 -1- 230-156-80 DATA COLLECTION 1 EXISTING i SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA 1 EXISTING TRIP GENERATION MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ORIGIN-DESTINATION EXISTING TRIP 0. STUDY DISTRIBUTION 4 REPLICATION ol COMPARE TO ASSIGNMENT EXISTING VOLUMES SATISFACTORY SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORECASTS 4 REPLICATION ULTIMATE TRIP • GENERATION • ULTIMATE TRIP DISTRIBUTION 1 ULTIMATE ASSIGNMENT 4 IDENTIFY SYSTEM DEFICIENCIES / / DESIGN PROPOSED IMPROVEMENTS STANDARDS ROADWAY TO EXISTING ADDITIONS FACILITIES I _1 oi TRANSPORTATION PLAN el V COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION PLAN FIGURE 1 cit' of 1 _ AT1ON PLANNING PROCESS Elk CONSU-1LPINC ENGINEERS Iver ER156 DRAFT November 21, 1995 A. General Data Collection • In order to plan a transportation system that will accommodate future demands, it is necessary to have a complete inventory of the existing transportation system, land use patterns and current development. The following data was collected in Elk River to create an overall picture of existing conditions: Traffic Volume Counts - Average Daily Traffic (ADT) counts that were done by Maier Stewart on County and Municipal State Aid Streets in 1991 and 1992 were gathered. Added to these were MnDOT 1990 ADTs on T.H. 10, 169 and 101. ADT counts were conducted on other important roadway segments for which no recent information was available. Roadway System Inventory - The entire system of arterials and collectors in the City of Elk River was inventoried. Speed limits, number of lanes, intersection channelization, traffic control devices and parking restrictions were noted. Population Statistics - Breakdowns of population and households by block from the 1990 Decennial Census were gathered. Annual listings of new dwelling units and their locations for the years 1991 and 1992 were supplied by the City. County population forecasts from the most recent available edition of Minnesota Population Projections, put out by the State Demography Unit, were obtained. • Land Use - The current City zoningMapwas reviewed with Citystaff. Areas zoned for commercial or industrial use, as well as areas whose zoning was expected to change, were identified. An estimate of current percent occupied was attached to each commercial or industrial zone. B. Socioeconomic Forecasts Transportation planning can be accomplished on various scales, from short range to very long range planning. The desire of the City of Elk River was to identify corridors that should be preserved for future roadways needed to accommodate ultimate, or saturation, development within the City. Identifying these corridors now, before extensive development occurs in these areas, will not only help the City save money in later right-of-way acquisitions, but will provide the City with more direction in ensuring compatibility between land use and transportation system. Socioeconomic forecasts, therefore, had to project the amount and distribution of households, commercial and industrial enterprises, and recreational facilities in an environment of ultimate development within the City, where the last house had been constructed and the last new business was operating. In this type of analysis • socioeconomic forecasts were independent of time. CTP-230.156 -2- 230-156-80 DRAFT November 21, 1995 As will be seen in the next section, existing socioeconomic data was also needed • in order to attempt to replicate the use of the existing transportation system. The parameters used to measure socioeconomic conditions for both replication and ultimate forecasts were number of households and acres of commercial, industrial, and recreational land. The first step was to divide the City into a series of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs), zones that were and would remain relatively homogeneous in terms of geography, population density and mobility. An attempt was made to use physical boundaries such as major roads, rivers and railroads as TAZ boundaries, since these are the types of features that limit homogeneity between areas. Figure 2 is a map of the City of Elk River with TAZ boundaries as designated for the transportation planning process. The TAZ map was overlaid upon a map showing block numbers from the 1990 U.S. Census. Population and housing unit counts by block were converted to population and number of dwelling units in each TAZ in 1990. Annual compilation of new dwelling units by neighborhood provided by the City were used to expand the number of households in each TAZ to 1992 numbers. All existing and proposed commercial, industrial and recreational areas were outlined on the March 1992 revision of the City Zoning Map. Discussion with • City staff led to a "percent presently occupied" designation for each area. Acres of commercial or industrial land currently in use were calculated by multiplying the total acreage by the percent occupied for each area. The TAZ map was overlaid upon the Zoning Map to allocate commercial, industrial and recreational acreages to TAZs. To estimate ultimate households, total acreage of land ultimately available for residential use was calculated for each TAZ. Average residential lot sizes were estimated for each TAZ based upon its location on the Residential zones density map, figure 4-A in the City of Elk River Growth Management Plan dated August 22. 1988. This map divides the city into three zones: medium density residential, low density residential (minimum lot size 2.5 acres) and agricultural (minimum lot size 10.0 acres). Total acreage was divided by average acres per household to arrive at total households at ultimate development. Ultimate commercial, industrial and recreational acreage was simply a matter of adding up acreage of designated areas on the Zoning Map within each TAZ. Table 1 shows existing and forecasted ultimate population, households, and commercial, industrial and recreational acreage for each TAZ. This is the basic data used to proceed into the travel demand modeling process. • CTP-230.156 -3- 230-156-80 ii kl ti ii iJ 2i A I I li li J i 1 11 i E tl Elr 1 I i I 1 i 11 mr . 11 hi II 11 0.00. —....—. -'I --.. — •{1 N •••L• 4 '1 t; (, 5 t ....... it 1 0.1.. / • 1 ../ V N\ ----i- maSal 1:1i ....'Ci _ _ ,,.... i I. ' 1111 I. 11 k. , .1....., \ i A 1 1\ 1' 11: i U 7 ,...., / c'1 1\ I I. C -) ',.. ? TAZ 56 ,.... 9,.\ \, — .0.. \ .) ...'.1:414.-0•••• ks r — -,z 4 '-. .... _ ',- , ....., . rI ,.. ......, — - ; ' ,--.. a .._,,z_i__,.., WM. { ; ( TAZ 52 „ U .... --1.1"..N.,_„... C. ____........ _ zl..S. ____ ..i.%. _ 11__ 1 1F_'.. —.: ....,, .. %.. ... maa m. i - kt:- \--' l (.., •.1 ( -IN — ) • I 7 -----1 / (01.• ,If "j% it110-"I/' ....... 3 it 1, 1 4 1,... . -- ,..„- --- ,i1 1 i --,. 1110- _ , tb) — 1 TAZ 55 ( II ithrc,,,i ,, i , ,.-I, .... 4-----ii- lrili421 'i - 0 - I .........-.......,.--,- .o.L.:..r.,.. —....11 . ' ''''''',.., i.._/----' ,. .1.10 TAZ 51 _ c — . ,.--, ,.... i \ 1 ( -"-- -4.- . f7TAZ 54 5..... i ) fstil ..„... r II // t('*"4i'L-- _ - °----- r 1-1 , -,\ „.- - -- -. -...:.. z- -,,4„, ...) 't\ .-_. .... , - , , . O.. - di/ 'V - --- ------. -.... -- , .s.' 1-)‘; r_.."-'\--"-- --..::: ///\\\.,_ / • --, *,. IMO a.. ... 2 i 11 ) / .- • [ - ,N411 .11 _ 0.0. i\ 41661 / t I i/ ....... , ,. 1 1 { i ...., \ ____ 1 • _ i 1 .., , ,....,, , 1 ,,-....,. TAZ 53 ...„, 44',__,,- ,-..) if-',/.01 -..) 1.0•011b11 ... ii ,- 1 ilti ne. 1 1 1 1 1 - ,,,, ... )1 '1 ----. 0 ..,.. ,... . , ) l (I ,. „.. 2 —.... ) I 1 1 1 t 11 -- 6 i I I- , , V ti.‘ , il ,,. 11 '1111 '111111111 • . . 111 " " 1111111 "111111 t kki AI'[AZ t,// s) ' 9 ! r...„\\ _,....- ,., , 1 "-- , , _ _ . ---' : 11,.,(4, 13 ... ..._.I <, „, , , i. ---_ r.._. ____ .).....„,.. ;, . .„, lii ) L._ 1 ..... ,, _ TAZ 64 / YYY� fail- , J 1 :.. H .,,..,....... ,___ �� ^�. 11/ / 4' �_ IMier BJ 1 .1 ' t/ Immti 11.44y,, -.I rr.� „ ; �'tomMiff— i l i' 77 1 ---- ;: i '' 1 -- , / an. ibili- 1 ',-._1(61,_ .,.., ,,,1. ,-,,..... - --,...- ,..-4(--' — ______ ( �1 l �. -� J{Ir j w 41:-) 11fifi.14/ .' 1 �r9 I - 0 2000 7. 1 �) 1 �� .,-- II .721/"'-0 l 'ti, \\ awJ ..1P_"C' __ 7tU ,' .,1 \ -- 1326 ENERGY PARK DRIVE / `�JLC ` �mnr naJ ' ST.PAUE. MNf1ESOTA 55106 I .,,� ', "! rIlk , ._\ �� (612)644-4389 \ ku4J i,�II '7'; �� V 5075 WAYZATA BLVD. SUITE /225 ,�� 1 �� �J MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA 56416 . ° , ' .�1,iti, l rar- (612) 340-0432 1` A"- - �.• )/i T , , , .a.� IP TAZ 59 ,/ �— °;,. •• 4 �o °"'" :: �� TAZ. BOUNDARY 1. 11 ,::1 �° YAW TAZ 60 T.A.Z. ZONE NUMBER •6 h son- tvJ 3 ► EXTERNAL ZONE - - , \ -- .\ 4.*,:„.1\ '-'-", ) --- *mu Mir- 4...J FIGURE 2 , t_ ,; \,,T..,-; fitij-,t al' 4,,-- (I '.. ) 1 '1 t 9-i.1 li _ TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES (TAZ's) AZ "� IMO AND EXTERNAL ZONES t y,c Ii) �� � . ,� -1 muJ � a-7 .„> rAvr i a _..ii I i 1 rte, lowJ t Mill—[ _ . \ .�— I_� ,y,: } o mW City of '`�'� fail !� • 11I 1 lin I "I A 1 1I a.J Elk Iver • . IICOMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION PLAN TABLE 1 EXISTING AND FORECAST ULTIMATE LAND USE BY TAZ Population Households Commercial Acreage Industrial Acreage Recreational Acreage Existing Ultimate Existing Ultimate Existing Ultimate Existing Ultimate Existing Ultimate TAZ 51 610 1,815' 185 550 : 0 0 32 449 0 0 TAZ 52 426 . .... ;11,107' 142 : 369 TAZ 53 832 4,541 252 1,376 0 ! 0 0 0 0 0 TAZ 54 322 3,255, " 104 1,050 0 ;j 0 120 a 192 a 331 331 .:...: . TAZ 55 1,263 2,412 421 `. $04 : 161 TAZ 56 1,267 4,715': 362 1,347 TAZ 57 TAZ 58 595 3,475 • 192 1,121 !......... 0 TAZ 59 TAZ 60 585 ;' 966 209 345 ...... Q :' Q ;...... 0 O II 0 0 TAZ 61 364 582;, 130 208 ' 0 0 107 119 1 1 TAZ 62 756 456 d 360 !; 21 fi d TAZ 63 1,47:1 1003 d 613 418 d 62. 84 90 90 0 ! 0 TAZ 64 756 3,237 280 ',' 1,199 131 : 438 83 584 256 256. TOTAL: 11,811 40,736 4,123 13,372 293 806 446 1,601 902 902 a) includes school property in area zoned indus c) includes 8 acres of school grounds b) includes 156 acres of school grounds d) ultimate population and households fewer than existing because some present residential areas are zoned commercial DRAFT November 21, 1995 C. Travel Demand Modeling • Travel demand modeling is the process by which socioeconomic data is changed to trip making dat in order to determine the ability of a roadway network to handle projected demands. The general practice is to follow a standard methodology of trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and trip assignment. Modal split analysis has a goal of estimating the effect of transit usage on the total number of vehicle trips placed on the network. In the case of Elk River, we conservatively estimated that transit usage would have a negligible effect - that by far the preferred means of transportation would remain the personal vehicle, as it is today. Many factors can influence the share of total person-trips that transit enjoys, including gas prices and fuel availability, transit routes offered, traffic congestion and "social desirability" of transit. By being conservative and estimating a limited impact of transit, we are not suggesting that it would not or should not play a significant role in Elk River. On the contrary, a good system will reduce energy dependence and traffic congestion. This is further discussed later in the report. As was shown in Figure 1, the travel demand modeling process was broken into two parts. First, the existing transportation system usage was replicated using existing socio-economic data. Trip generation, distribution and assignment calculations were adjusted as necessary to create a model that allocated traffic to the existing roadway network such that assigned volumes were as close as possible • to actual measured volumes. This was done to validate the travel behavior factors that would be used in the ultimate forecast. When enough adjustments had been made to arrive at a reasonably close replication, the socio-economic forecasts for ultimate development were used to create an ultimate travel demand forecast. The following sections describe the components of the process in greater detail. 1. Trip Generation In the trip generation process, generation rates are applied to the chosen socio-economic parameters to estimate the number of vehicle trips to and from each TAZ to be placed on the roadway network. A trip generated may be either a trip into or out of a TAZ; generally, no distinction is made when dealing with Average Daily Traffic (ADT) volumes. Rather, the reasonable assumption is made that in a given 24-hour period on a weekday, the total number of trips into and out of any TAZ is approximately equal. This is not the case in a peak hour analysis, where trips into and out of a TAZ can differ greatly depending on the types of generators it contains. The Elk River study was done using ADT volumes. The general reference used in determining trip generation rates was the 5th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation • Manual, published in 1991. Information on generation rates for various land uses was obtained from this document and modified according to specific characteristics of the City of Elk River. CTP-230.156 -4- 230-156-80 DRAFT November 21, 1995 Table 2 shows the various trip generation rates that were used in Elk River. • Two residential rates were used: one, 9.0 trips per household if the average household size in the TAZ was greater than 3.0 people, and the other, 8.5 trips per household for TAZs with average household sizes of 3.0 or less. Two rates were used to reflect the tendency of larger households to generate more trips. The generation rate for low density highway commercial was considerably lower than the rate for general highway commercial. This was meant to reflect on those areas further from the core of the City that are zoned highway commercial but have less intense land uses than general retail, such as auto dealerships and other showrooms. External trip generation was handled in an entirely different manner. Each important road crossing the City border was considered an external zone. The existing rip generation for each of these zones was simply the existing traffic volume count on that road at the City border. To estimate the external volumes at the point in time when ultimate development in the City of Elk River is achieved, the year of ultimate development had to be estimated. This was done by calculating the annual average population growth rate needed to achieve the U.S. Census Bureau year 2000 population projection and determining the number of years needed at this • growth rate to reach the estimated ultimate population. Since it is reasonable to assume that the annual percentage growth rate will decrease as the City approaches ultimate development, some years were added to the calculated number. The result was an estimate of ultimate development in 40 years. Realistically this is not likely to occur since gravel miners will probably still be operating in the northern part of the City in 40 years, and therefore large areas that are zoned residential will not yet be built upon. However, it is a reasonable time frame for the planning purpose of estimating external traffic volumes. A relationship was established between estimated population growth in the City of Elk River and counties around Elk River, and growth of external traffic volumes. Population forecasts from the State Demography Unit publication entitled "Minnesota Population Projections 1980-2010" were obtained for Sherburne, Wright, Hennepin, Anoka, Mille Lacs, Stearns and Benton Counties. Trends in population change were extended to the year 2030 for each county. For each external zone, the county population forecasts were used in varying degrees in conjunction with Elk River population forecasts to estimate traffic volume changes. Volume changes were calculated separately for external-external (E-E) and external-internal (E-I) trips (see Section II.C.2, Trip Distribution, for discussion of E-E and • E-I trips). CTP-230.156 -5- 230-156-80