9.1 SR 01-18-2022
Request for Action
To Item Number
Mayor and City Council 9.1
Agenda Section Meeting Date Prepared by
Work Session January 18, 2022 Brent O’Neil, Economic Development Director
Item Description Reviewed by
Housing Study Review Cal Portner, City Administrator
Reviewed by
Action Requested
Item is presented for information and discussion.
Background/Discussion
At the January 3, 2022, Council meeting, the Council requested a work session to review the status of rental
housing construction in Elk River relative to the studies Maxfield Research completed for the city in 2018 and
Sherburne County in 2020.
The Elk River study recommended a minimum of 690 to 785 new housing units be developed in Elk River.
Planning and building staff evaluated the units added from 2018 through October 1, 2021. A breakdown of those
units by type along with the recommend breakdown by type is stated below.
Senior housing: 35 units constructed, 115 to 140 recommended (see Table CR-2 on page 52).
Rental housing: 108 units constructed (40 at market rate and 68 affordable), 235 to 275 recommended (165 market
and 90 affordable).
The plan recommended 360 units of single-family be constructed as well, and actual constructed units were 342.
Sherburne County’s study included evaluation of Elk River as a sub-market within the county. It recommended up
to 480 units of new rental demand between 2020 and 2030. The “Rental Housing Demand” section of that report
shows a recommended breakdown of 288 market rate units, 120 affordable units, and 70 subsidized units.
Financial Impact
N/A
Mission/Policy/Goal
The housing study helps advise the council on goals related to housing in Elk River.
Attachments
City of Elk River Housing Study – 2018
Excerpt from Sherburne County Housing Study – 2020
The Elk River Vision
A welcoming community with revolutionary and spirited resourcefulness, exceptional
service, and community engagement that encourages and inspires prosperity.
Updated: August 2020
Comprehensive Housing Market Study Updates
City of Elk River, Minnesota
February 15, 2018
Ms. Amanda Othoudt
Economic Development Director
City of Elk River
13065 Orono Parkway
Elk River, MN 55330
Dear Ms. Othoudt:
Attached is the Comprehensive Housing Market StudyUpdatesfor Elk River, Minnesota conducted by
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC. The original study was completed in December2015, with the
following updates completed in February2018. The study projects housing demand from 2017through
2025, and providesrecommendations on the amount and type of housing that could be built in Elk River
to satisfy demand from current and future residents through 2025.
The study identifies a potential demand for approximately 864new housing units through 2025. About
20% of the total demand is for senior housing; while general-occupancy housing accounted for 80% of
the demand. Demand is strongest for for-sale housing, representing 395of the 864new housing units.
There is also strong demand for additional market rate (172 units) and affordable rental housing (93
units)
If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact us. We have enjoyed conduct-
ing this study for you.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC
Matt MullinsBrian Smith
Vice PresidentSenior Associate
Attachment
(main) 612-338-0012 (fax) 612-904-7979
7575 Golden Valley Road, Suite 385,Golden Valley, MN 55427
www.maxfieldresearch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY .......................................................................................... 1
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 2
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 2
Market Area Definition ..................................................................................................... 2
Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections from 1990 to 2030 ............. 3
Age Distribution Trends .................................................................................................... 5
Household Income by Age of Householder...................................................................... 6
Tenure by Age of Household ............................................................................................. 8
Household Type Trends .................................................................................................... 10
Household by Household Income ..................................................................................... 11
Summary of Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 12
EMPLOYMENT ....................................................................................................................... 14
Employment Trends .......................................................................................................... 14
Resident LaborForce......................................................................................................... 14
Covered Employment ........................................................................................................ 16
Inflow/Outflow .................................................................................................................. 17
Major Employers ............................................................................................................... 18
Summary of Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 18
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................................20
Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present ............................................................ 20
Housing Units by Structure and Tenure ............................................................................ 21
Summary of Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 22
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 23
General Occupancy Rental Projects .................................................................................. 23
Senior Housing in Elk River ................................................................................................ 27
Summary of Elk River Competitive Multifamily Properties .............................................. 30
FOR-SALE HOUSING ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 32
Residential Resales ............................................................................................................ 32
Current Supply of Homes on the Market .......................................................................... 36
Lot Supply .......................................................................................................................... 39
Summary of For Sale Market Conditions .......................................................................... 41
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 43
Estimated Demand for For-Sale Housing ........................................................................... 43
Estimated Demand for General Occupancy Rental Housing ............................................. 44
Estimated Demand for Independent/Few Services Senior Housing .................................45
Estimated Demand for Affordable and Subsidized Independent Senior Housing ............ 46
Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing .......................................................... 47
Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing .................................................................. 48
Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing.................................................................. 49
DEMAND SUMMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................... 50
Demand Summary/Overall Housing Recommendations .................................................. 50
Recommended Housing Product Types............................................................................52
MAPS
Page
Primary Market Area.............................................................................................................. 2
Elk River General Occupancy Rental Housing Locations ....................................................... 26
Elk River Senior Housing Locations ........................................................................................ 29
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
D1.Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections, Elk River,
1990 to 2030……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3
D2.Population Age Distribution, Elk River, 2000 to 2025 .................................................. 5
D3.Household Income by Age of Householder, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 ........................ 8
D4.Tenure by Age of Householder, Elk River Study Area, 2010 and 2016… ...................... 8
D5.Household Type Trends, Elk River Study Area, 2010 and 2016 .................................... 10
D6.Tenure by Household Income, Elk River, 2010 and 2016 ............................................. 11
E1.Resident Employment, Sherburne County, 2000 to 2017 ............................................ 14
E2.Covered Employment Trends, Elk River, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2016................................ 16
E3.Commuting Inflow/Outflow Characteristics, City of Elk River, 2015 ............................ 17
E4.Major Employers, City of Elk River, 2017 ...................................................................... 28
HC1.Residential Construction, City of Elk River, 2000 to 2017 ............................................ 20
HC2.Housing Stock by Units in Structure, Elk River, 2000 and 2016 .................................... 21
RMA1. General Housing Occupancy Rental Housing, City of Elk River, January 2018 .......... 23
SH1. Senior Housing, City of Elk River, January 2018 ........................................................... 27
FS1.Home Resales, City of Elk River, 2010-2017 ................................................................. 32
FS2.Single Family and Multifamily Residential Sales, City of Elk River,
2000 through 2017 ....................................................................................................... 33
FS3.Home Resales by Sales Price & Product Type, City of Elk River, 2017 .......................... 34
FS4.Housing Sales Per Square Foot (PSF), Elk River, 2005 to 2017 ..................................... 35
FS5.Homes Currently Listed For-Sale, City of Elk River, February 2018 .............................. 36
FS6.Active Listings by Housing Type, Elk River, February 2018 ........................................... 37
FS7.Subdivision & Lot Inventory – Detached Housing Units, City of Elk River,
th
Quarter 2017........................................................................................................... 39
4
FS8. Subdivision & Lot Inventory – Attached Housing Units, City of Elk River,
th
4 Quarter 2017 ........................................................................................................... 40
HD1.For-Sale Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 to 2025 ..................................................... 43
HD2.Rental Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017to 2025 ........................................................ 44
HD3.Market Rate Active Adult/Few Services Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022.45
HD4.Affordable Independent Senior Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 .............. 46
HD5.Subsidized Independent Senior Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 .............. 46
HD6.Market Rate Congregate Rental Housing Demand, Elk River, 2017 and 2022 ............. 47
HD7.Market Rate Assisted Living Demand, Elk River Market Area, 2017 and 2022 ............ 48
HD8.Memory Care Demand, Elk River Market Area, 2017 and 2022 .................................. 49
CR1.Summary of Housing Demand, City of Elk River, February 2017.................................. 50
CR2.Recommended Housing Development, City of Elk River, 2017 to 2025 ...................... 52
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC (i.e. “Maxfield Research”) was engaged by the City of Elk
Riverto completean update of the Comprehensive Housing Market Study for the City of Elk
River from 2015. This report includes an update only to select tables and is intended to act as
an addendum to the original document.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 1
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section of the report examines factors related to the current and future demand for both
owner-and renter-occupied housing in Elk River, Minnesota. It includes population and house-
hold growth trends and projections, projected age distribution, household income andhouse-
hold types. A review of these characteristics will provide insight into the demand for various
types of housing in the Market Area.
Elk River Study Area Definition
The draw area for determining current and future housing demand in the City of Elk River is
based on traffic pattern orientation, proximity to other communities, interviews with local offi-
cials and community stakeholders, natural and manmade geographic barriers, and our
knowledge of the draw areas for housing. The Study Area is defined as Elk River proper.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 2
3
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Elk River
Population Trends
1990 -2020
30,000
25,000
27,286
26,208
25,561
24,484
22,974
20,000
15,000
16,447
10,000
11,143
5,000
0
1990200020102017202220252030
Elk River Study Area
Household Trends
1990 -2020
12,000
10,000
9,704
9,298
9,005
8,000
8,617
8,080
6,000
5,664
4,000
3,732
2,000
0
1990200020102017202220252030
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 4
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE D-2
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
ELK RIVER
2000 - 2025
Number of PersonsChange
2000-20102010-2025
20002010201720222025
No.No.No.No.No.No.Pct.No.Pct.
17 & under5,1466,5556,6426,8276,9191,40927.43645.6
18-241,3951,7571,9991,8871,96636225.920911.9
25-342,4613,2043,4123,6093,59074330.238612.1
35-443,1173,5843,4703,8243,93146715.03479.7
45-541,9633,5353,4893,2553,1711,57280.1-364-10.3
55-641,0492,1922,7452,9072,8301,143109.063829.1
65-746631,1881,6551,9842,30652579.21,11894.1
75+6539591,0711,2681,49430646.953555.8
Total16,44722,97424,48425,56126,2086,52739.72,58711.3
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI, Inc.; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Adult Population Age Distribution
Elk River
2000 to 2025
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
18-2425-4445-6465+
Age Cohort
20002010201720222025
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 5
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE D-3
HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
ELK RIVER
(Number of Households)
2017 and 2022
2017
Total<2525-3435-4445-5455-6465 -7475+
Less than $15,00033817373331567391
$15,000 to $24,9994982152515464113143
$25,000 to $34,999521289268588983103
$35,000 to $49,99996935187138147174131156
$50,000 to $74,9991,70370369300321272222148
$75,000 to $99,9991,5353830236336128315829
$100,000 or more3,0533844880091257723047
Total8,6172471,4881,7541,8841,5161,011717
<$25,00083638898485120186234
$35,000+7,2591811,3071,6021,7411,307741380
Median Income$78,428$55,477$75,365$93,219$97,202$82,185$59,223$36,403
Twin Cities Med. Income$67,795$34,820$58,146$81,972$88,167$80,649$58,179$37,464
2022
Total<2525-3435-4445-5455-6465 -7475+
Less than $15,000363173936305383105
$15,000 to $24,9995021949484060120166
$25,000 to $34,999497258366457886114
$35,000 to $49,99990633166123115155139175
$50,000 to $74,9991,53360331273239234229167
$75,000 to $99,9991,5013930136230527318536
$100,000 or more3,7024457399395071934281
Total9,0052371,5421,9011,7241,5721,184844
<$25,00086536888470113203271
$35,000+7,6431761,3711,7511,6091,381895459
Median Income$84,758$57,518$81,690$101,749$104,816$92,345$65,812$37,255
Twin Cities Med. Income$78,703$37,641$68,180$92,464$99,756$93,254$69,137$42,675
Change
Total<2525-3435-4445-5455-6465 -7475+
Less than $15,00025-023-1-31014
$15,000 to $24,9994-2-3-3-14-4723
$25,000 to $34,999-24-3-9-2-13-11311
$35,000 to $49,999-62-2-21-15-32-19819
$50,000 to $74,999-170-10-38-27-82-38719
$75,000 to $99,999-341-1-1-56-10277
$100,000 or more65061251933914211234
Total388-1054147-16056174127
<$25,00029-2-1-0-15-71737
$35,000+384-564149-1327415479
Median Income$6,330$2,041$6,325$8,530$7,614$10,160$6,589$852
Twin Cities Med. Income$10,908$2,821$10,034$10,492$11,589$12,605$10,958$5,211
Sources: ESRI, Inc.; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 6
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Growth and Income Trends by Age of Householder
Elk River
2017 to 2022
2,000$120,000
2017
1,800
2022
$100,000
2017 Income
$97,202
1,600$93,219
$82,185
1,400
$80,000
$75,365
1,200
$59,223
1,000$60,000
800
$55,477
$36,403
$40,000
600
400
$20,000
200
0$0
15-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465 -7475+
Age of Householder
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 7
8
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Elk River
Homeowners by Age of Householder -2016
1,800100%
87.9%
82.4%
90%
1,600
80.0%
77.9%
80%
1,400
68.0%
63.2%
70%
1,200
1,644
1,189
60%
1,132
1,000
1,288
50%
800
40%
719
600
30%
No. of Homeowners
32.1%
400
20%
401
Homeownership Rate
200
10%
34
00%
Age of Householder
Elk River
Renters by Age of Householder -2016
600100%
90%
No. of Renters
533
500
80%
Pct. Renters
67.9%
70%
400
411337
60%
30050%
32.0%
36.8%
275
40%
200
99
22.1%
20.0%
17.6%
30%
12.1%
20%
100
10%
233
72
00%
Age of Householder
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 9
10
382
449
1,586
1,581
1,321
1,115
2,806
2,440
2,272
2,495
No. of Households
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE D-6
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
ELK RIVER
2010 and 2016
2010*2016*
OwnRentOwnRent
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Less than $5,0003762.72237.37632.815667.2
$5,000 to $9,9993741.15358.92946.83353.2
$10,000 to $14,99916263.59336.57452.56747.5
$15,000 to $19,99920563.311936.76257.94542.1
$20,000 to $24,99911045.313354.79231.619968.4
$25,000 to $34,99924857.918042.139356.130843.9
$35,000 to $49,99976278.720621.337744.048056.0
$50,000 to $74,9991,39580.833119.21,09475.934824.1
$75,000 to $99,9991,33895.1694.91,15389.513510.5
$100,000 to $149,9991,68697.7392.32,07393.41466.6
$150,000 or more67391.7618.398495.8434.2
Total6,65383.61,30616.46,40776.6 1,96023.4
* Data is from US Census, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimate)
Source: US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC.
Propensity to Rent by Household Income
Elk River, 2016 (5-Year ACS)
500100%
480
45090%
No. of
Renters
40080%
% Renters
68%
35070%
348
56%
67%
30060%
53%
308
48%
25050%
44%
42%
20040%
199
15030%
24%
156
51
69
10020%
10%
61
7%
5010%
67
4%
45
33
00%
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 11
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Summary of Demographic Trends
Population and Household Projections
Between 2010 and 2017,the Elk River population and households are estimated to have in-
creased by 6.6% (1,510 people and 537 households), while Sherburne County and Wright
County’s populations grew by 5.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
Population in the City of Elk Riveris projected to increase by 4.4% (1,077people)from 2017
to 2022 and forecast to grow 7.0% (1,724) through 2025. Overall, Elk River’s population is
forecast to gain over 3,230 people (14%) from 2010 to 2025.
Age Distribution Trends
Between2010 and 2025,the growth of the older age cohorts will continue in Elk River,
those age 65 to 74 will experience the largest growth, growing 94% (1,118 people). All
other age cohorts will experience a decline in population or experience nominal growth.
The 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 age cohorts will experience the largest growth (19.9% and 18.4%
respectively) in the PMA between 2017 and 2022. The population 18 to 24 and 45 to 54 are
projected to decline from 2017 to 2022 by 5.6% and 6.7%, respectively. All other age co-
horts are expected to experience moderate growth in population.
Household Income by Age of Householder
The Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing costs as
30% of a household’s adjusted gross income. For example, a household in Elk River with the
median income of $78,428 per year would be able to afford a monthly housing cost of
about $1,956.
A generally accepted standard for affordable owner-occupied housing is that a typical
household can afford to pay 3.0 to 3.5 times their annual income on a single-family home.
Thus, a $78,428 income would translate to an affordable single-family home of $235,284 to
$273,868. The higher end of this range assumes that the person has adequate funds for
down payment and closing costs, but also does not include savings or equity in an existing
home which would allow them to purchase a higher priced home.
With a household income of $55,477, a younger household in Elk River (the median house-
hold income for the 25 and under cohort) could afford a monthly housing cost of about
$1,386 based on an allocation of 30% of income toward housing. A senior household (75+)
in Elk River with an income of $36,403 (the median household income of seniors (75+) could
afford a monthly housing cost of $1,213, based on an allocation of 40% of income toward
housing.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 12
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Tenure by Household Income
A portion of renter households are referred to as lifestyle renters, or those who are finan-
cially-able to own but choose to rent, have household incomes above $50,000. These life-
style renters account for approximately 34% of the renters in Elk River renters in 2016.
Households with incomes below $15,000 are typically a market for deep subsidy rental
housing. In 2016, this was about 13% of renters in Elk River. Households with incomes
ranging from roughly $25,000 to $50,000 are candidates for affordable rental properties
and account for 40% of the renters in 2016.
Tenure by Age of Householder
The number of owner households in Elk Riveris estimated to have decreased from 80.2%
in 2010 to 76.6% in 2016.
As households progress through their life cycle, housing needs change. The proportion of
renter households decreases significantly as households’ age out of their young-adult
years. However, by the time households reach their senior years, rental housing often be-
comes a more viable option than homeownership, reducing the responsibility of mainte-
nance and the financial commitment. In the City of Elk River, homeowner households
reached a high of 87.9% in the 65-74 age cohort in 2016. Homeownership then begins to
fall, dropping to 63.2% for those 75 and older in 2016.
Household Type
In Elk River, married without children family households comprise the largest share of
households at 33.5%of household. This is followed by married with children at 27.2% and
persons living alone at 19%.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 13
EMPLOYMENT
Employment Trends
TABLE E-1
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT (ANNUAL AVERAGE)
SHERBURNE COUNTY
2000 to 2017
TotalMinnesotaU.S.
LaborTotalTotalUnemploymentUnemploymentUnemployment
YearForceEmployedUnemployedRateRateRate
200037,90436,7481,1563.0%3.2%4.0%
200139,49638,0011,4953.8%3.8%4.7%
200241,52439,5521,9724.7%4.5%5.8%
200343,31041,0902,2205.1%4.9%6.0%
200445,02542,7802,2455.0%4.7%5.6%
200546,52944,5132,0164.3%4.1%5.1%
200648,06445,9912,0734.3%4.0%4.6%
200748,73846,2992,4395.0%4.6%4.6%
200849,59246,5313,0616.2%5.4%5.8%
200949,29344,8214,4729.1%7.8%9.3%
201048,99044,8674,1238.4%7.4%9.6%
201148,84045,3553,4857.1%6.5%8.9%
201248,75645,7543,0026.2%5.6%8.1%
201348,90946,3092,6005.3%4.9%7.4%
201449,18647,0012,1854.4%4.1%6.2%
201549,75947,6462,1134.2%3.9%5.5%
201649,64747,5922,0554.1%3.8%4.9%
201750,68148,7101,9713.9%3.6%4.4%
Change 2000-1011,0868,1192,9675.4%4.2%5.6%
Change 2011-171,8413,355-1,514-3.2%-2.9%-3.3%
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 14
EMPLOYMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SHERBURNE COUNTY
2000 to 2017
10.0%
9.6%
9.1%
Sherburne
9.0%
Minnesota
8.0%
U.S.
7.0%
7.8%
6.0%
6.0%
5.1%
4.6%
5.0%
4.4%
4.0%
4.9%
4.3%
3.9%
4.0%
3.2%
4.0%
3.6%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
Year
LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
SHERBURNE COUNTY
2000 to 2017
52,500
50,681
49,592
50,000
47,500
48,710
45,000
46,531
42,500
40,000
Total Labor Force
37,904
Total Employed
37,500
36,748
35,000
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 15
EMPLOYMENT
TABLE E-2
COVERED EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
ELK RIVER
2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016
North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS)
Change
Average Number of Employees 2000 - 2014% of total
Industry2000200520102016No.Pct.2000200520102014
Natural Resources & Mining64139911175382.80.7%1.3%0.8%1.0%
Construction54475438966412022.16.1%7.3%3.6%5.7%
Manufacturing1,2021,0731,2431,50029824.813.6%10.4%11.4%12.9%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities2,4703,0042,6022,85438415.527.9%29.2%23.8%24.6%
Information108635566-42-38.91.2%0.6%0.5%0.6%
Financial Services373476394332-41-11.04.2%4.6%3.6%2.9%
Professional and Business Services9007358811,31641646.210.1%7.1%8.0%11.3%
Education and Health Services1,3671,8023,0312,31895169.615.4%17.5%27.7%20.0%
Leisure and Hospitality8891,1028421,05516618.710.0%10.7%7.7%9.1%
Other Services38042454349511530.34.3%4.1%5.0%4.3%
Public Administration57072687588431455.16.4%7.0%8.0%7.6%
Totals8,86710,29810,94611,6012,73430.8100%100%100%100%
Source: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Covered Employment Trends
Elk River
2000 through 2016
13,000
12,236
12,000
11,601
11,000
10,946
10,000
10,298
9,000
8,867
8,000
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 16
EMPLOYMENT
TABLE E-3
COMMUTING INFLOW/OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2015
OutflowInflowInterior Flow
City Total10,454100.0%9,481100.0%2,299100.0%
By Age
Workers Aged 29 or younger2,32422.2%2,39325.2%60526.3%
Workers Aged 30 to 546,31660.4%5,20454.9%1,15150.1%
Workers Aged 55 or older1,81417.4%1,88419.9%54323.6%
By Monthly Wage
Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less2,08820.0%2,76829.2%93140.5%
Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month2,62325.1%2,87530.3%68129.6%
Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month5,74354.9%3,83840.5%68729.9%
By Industry
"Goods Producing"2,31222.1%1,93320.4%31013.5%
"Trade, Transportation, and Utilities"2,27921.8%1,83519.4%48221.0%
"All Other Services"5,86356.1%5,71360.3%1,50765.6%
Sources: US Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
City of Elk River: Inflow/Outflow
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 17
EMPLOYMENT
TABLE E-4
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2017
EmployerProducts/ServicesEmployee Count
ISD #728Education1,125
Sherburne CountyGovernment595
Cretex Companies, Inc.Precast Concrete Products550
Wal-MartRetail Store354
Coborn's Grocery Store265
Great River EnergyElectric Utility250
Elk River Nursing HomeNursing Care240
Guardian Angels of Elk River, IncNursing Care/Housing200
The Home DepotRetail Store200
Sportech, IncPlastics Thermoforming185
City of Elk RiverGovernment183
Tescom CorporationPressure Control Devices173
MenardsRetail Store150
First National Financial ServicesFinancial Institution142
Avalon Home CareHome Health Care110
E & O Tool and Plastics, IncInjection Molding110
The Bank of Elk RiverFinancial Institution107
Metal Craft Machine & EngineeringPrecision Machining 105
Cub FoodsGrocery Store100
Total5,144
Sources: Sherburne County; City of Elk River; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Summary of Employment Trends
Resident Labor Force
Resident employment in Sherburne Countyincreasedby approximately 12,780 people be-
tween 2000 and 2017 (33.7%).
The unemployment rate was in 2017 was 3.9% in Sherburne County compared to 3.6% in
Minnesota and 4.4% in U.S. The unemployment rate in Elk River has been steadily declining
since its high in 2009 of 9.1%.
Covered Employment by Industry
The average number of employees rose 30.8% (2,734) between 2000 and 2016 in Elk River.
In Elk River, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities accounted for the largest proportion of em-
ployment, making up 25% of employment by industry in 2016. Education and Health Ser-
vices has the next highest concentration of employees at 20%.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 18
EMPLOYMENT
All but the Information and Financial Services sectors increased the number of employees
since 2000. The information sector decreased by 42 employees (39%) and the Financial Ser-
vices sector declined by 41 employees (11%).
The Education and Health Services sector experienced the largest gain in employees of 951
(70%) followed by the Professional and Business Services sector growing by 416 employees
(46%).
Inflow/Outflow
Table E-3 on page 18 provides a summary of the inflow and outflow of workers in the City of
Elk River. Outflow reflects the number of workers living in the City of Elk River, or theMar-
ket Area, but working in an area other than where they live, while inflow measures the
number of workers that are employed in the City of Elk River, or the Market Area, but live
outside those areas. Interior flow reflects the number of workers that both live and work in
the City of Elk River and live and work in the Market Area.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 19
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Housing Characteristics
TABLE HC-1
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
CITY OF ELK RIVER
ANNUAL BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED
2000 to 2017
Permits Issued
Single-Family Townhome/Multifamily Total Housing
Twinhome
Homes3+ UnitsUnits
20001722686284
20011621876256
20021941832244
200328537228550
200430012235547
20051954145344
2006150298250
2007104012116
2008250025
2009160420
20101505368
2011110011
2012360036
2013820082
201468368139
2015620062
2016732075
20171130
0113
Total '00 to 101,6181179692,704
Total 11' to 17445568518
Sources: City of Elk River; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Residential New Construction (Total Units)
Elk River
2000-2017
350
300
285
Single-Family
300
Town/Twinhomes
235
228
250
Multi-family 3+ Units
195
194
200
172
162
150
145
150
113
104
98
86
82
76
100
73
6868
62
53
36
32
25
50
16
15
12
11
4
0
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 20
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
TABLE HC-2
HOUSING STOCK BY UNITS IN STRUCTURE
ELK RIVER
2010 and 2016
2010*2016*
NoPct.NoPct.
Owner occupied:6,653100.06,407100.0
1, detached5,44581.85,69788.9
1, attached1,11516.85468.5
2 to 4 units450.7661.0
5- to 9-plex00.000.0
10 to 19 units00.0330.5
20 to 49 units00.000.0
50 + units330.5651.0
Mobile home150.200.0
Renter occupied:1,306100.01,960100.0
1, detached24218.549725.4
1, attached1269.644822.9
2 to 4 units886.71165.9
5- to 9-plex13410.3753.8
10 to 19 units24718.935718.2
20 to 49 units29622.736718.7
50 + units16012.31005.1
Mobile home131.000.0
Total occupied:7,959100.08,367100.0
1, detached5,68771.56,19474.0
1, attached1,24115.699411.9
2 to 4 units1331.71822.2
5- to 9-plex1341.7750.9
10 to 19 units2473.13904.7
20 to 49 units2963.73674.4
50 + units1932.41652.0
Mobile home280.400.0
* Data is from US Census, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimate)
Sources: US Census Bureau, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Housing Stock By Units In Structure
Elk River
2016
500
450
Owner Occupied
400
Renter Occupied
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 21
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
Summary of Housing Characteristics
Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present
Maxfield Research obtained data from the City of Elk River on the number of building permits
issued for new housing units in Elk River from 2000 to 2017. Table HC-1 on page 20 displays
permits issued for single-family and multifamily dwellings. Multifamily units usually include
both for-sale (condominium, twinhomes, and townhomes) and rental projects. The following
are key points about housing development since 2000.
In 2017, the City of Elk River permitted 113 residential units, the most residential units per-
mitted in a single year since prior to the onset of the Great Recession.
On average, the City of Elk River permits 90 single-family units, 6.5 townhome/twinhome
units, and 54 multi-family units per year since 2000.
From 2008 to 2016, Elk River averaged only 43 single-family units, less than 1 town-
home/twinhome units, and 14 multifamily units per year.
Since 2013, there has been 398 single family units, five townhome units and 68 multifamily
rental units permitted. This is an average of 80 single family units and 94 units overall over
the five year period.
Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type)
The dominant housing type in the Market Area is the single-family detached home, repre-
senting an estimated 89% of all owner-occupied housing units and 25% of renter-occupied
housing units as of 2016.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 22
23
Elk River
in
ANALYSIS
MARKET
RENTAL General Occupancy Rental Projects MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
24
ANALYSIS
MARKET
RENTAL MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
25
ANALYSIS
MARKET
RENTAL MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Elk River General Occupancy Rental Housing Locations
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Key:
60 + Units
40-59 Units
Market Rate Affordable
1.Granite Shores 14. The Depot at Elk River Station
21-39 Units
2.Evans Meadows 15. Jackson Place
Less than 20 Units
3.Lion’s Park 16. Dove Tree Apartments
4.Ridgewood Manor 17. Dove Terrace Apartments
5.Tara Hills Estates18. Elk Ridge Manor
6.Elk Park Estates 19. Coachman Ridge
7.Elk Ridge Estates
8.Balmoral Apartments Section 8
9.Elk Crossings/School Street20. Lanesboro Heights Townhomes
10.River Garden Apartments 21. Auburn Place
11.Pineview Estates
12.Lake Orono Estates
13.Oak Crest Apartments
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 26
27
Elk River
ANALYSIS
SENIOR HOUSING Senior Housing in MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
28
ANALYSIS
SENIOR HOUSING MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Elk River Senior Housing Locations
Maxfield Research & Consulting LLC
60 + Units
Key:
40-59 Units
Adult/Few-Services Ownership
21-39 Units
1.Pullman Place
2.Elk Run Village
Less than 20 Units
Adult/Few-Services Rental
Market Rate
3.Elk Terrace
4.Evans Park
5.Riverview Apartments
Subsidized
5. Riverview Apartments
6.Angel Ridge
7.Guardian Oaks
Assisted Living
8.Guardian Angels by the Lake
Memory Care
8. Guardian Angels by the Lake
Under Construction
9.Elk River Senior Housing
10. Guardian Angels - Otsego
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 29
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
FIGURE 1
2017 MHFA/HUD Income Limits
Sherburne County
Income Limits by Household Size
1 phh2 phh3 phh4 phh5phh6phh7phh8phh
30% of median$18,990$21,720$24,420$27,120$29,310$31,470$33,630$35,820
50% of median$31,650$36,200$40,700$45,200$48,850$52,450$56,050$59,700
60% of median$37,980$43,440$48,840$54,240$58,620$62,940$67,260$71,640
Maximum Gross Rents by Bedroom Size
0 BR1BR2BR3BR
30% of median$474$508$610$705
50% of median$791$848$1,017$1,175
60% of median$949$1,017$1,221$1,410
Sources: MHFA; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Summary of Elk River Competitive Multifamily Properties
Among 983 general occupancy units, 64% were market rates units, 30% were affordable units
and only 6% were subsidized units. There has been no new multifamily developments con-
structed since the previous study in 2015.
Market Rate Rentals in Elk River
In total there were 14 market rate apartments with 16 units or more in Elk River. Our sur-
vey indicated that the overall vacancy rate among all property types was nearly 6.2%, with
39 vacant units among 633 total units. This however includes the Elk Park Estates apart-
ments that account for 27 of the vacant units. Excluding thisproperty, the vacancy rate falls
to 2.1%. This is well below the recommended 5.0% equilibrium to account for sufficient
turnover in the market. Thus, pent-up demand exists for more market rate rental units.
Elk Park Estates is an anomaly in the market as in the prior 2015 study had 25 vacancies.
This property is the lone poorly performing larger rental development in the city.
Subsidized and Affordable Rentals in Elk River
The overall vacancy rate among all property types was 0.0% among 350 total units. No
available units in the market indicates that there is additional need for affordable and/or
subsidized units in Elk River.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 30
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Senior Housing in Elk River
Maxfield Research surveyed the 405senior housing unitsin Elk River. We identified one va-
cant unit, resulting in an overall vacancy rate of 0.2%. Generally, the equilibrium for senior
housing ranges from a 5% to 7% vacancy rate.Thus, the current rate indicates pent up de-
mand for additional senior housing at all levels.
Planned or Pending G.O. and Senior Housing DevelopmentsElk River
Hearth Development is currently building the 100-unit Elk River Senior Living senior housing
st
Avenue NW and Line
project in Elk River. The project is located at the intersection of 181
Avenue NW. The project will include 36 congregate units (independent living with light ser-
vices), 40 assisted living units, and 24 memory care units. The project is set to be com-
pleted late summer 2018.
Guardian Angels is developing Riverview Landing in Otsego located just across the river
from Elk River off of Highway 101 in the Waterfront East planned unit development area.
The project which is currently under construction will include 126 assisted living units and
16 memory care units. While this development is not located in Elk River, it is located just
across the border in Otsego and would be directly competitive with Elk River senior housing
projects.
There is one proposed general occupancy development in Elk River. Patrick Briggs has sub-
mitted a proposal for a 40-unit mixed income apartment building. The project would be lo-
th
Street and Jackson Avenue. The current proposal shows at least eight units that
cated at 6
would be affordable and 32 market rate units. The project would be developed under Tax
Increment Financing. Because the project is recently proposed it is unclear when and if the
building would be developed.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 31
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
For-Sale Housing Resales
TABLE FS-1
HOME RESALES
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2000 to 2017
1
Days on MarketCumul. DOM
No.Avg. SalesAvg. %Med. SalesMedian %% Lender
2
YearSoldPriceChangePriceChangeAvg.MedianAvg.MedianMediated
2000353$172,769-$159,000-4925---
2005519$254,0386.5%$234,9004.7%8861---
2010313$173,1534.2%$160,0001.3%70491347769.9%
2011382$145,781-15.8%$132,000-17.5%885914710670.2%
2012390$162,86211.7%$157,00018.9%81501146856.7%
2013445$184,65013.4%$172,0009.6%5635824733.8%
2014466$207,42412.3%$195,00013.4%6042784917.6%
2015532$220,6386.4%$214,45010.0%5133744110.7%
2016496$234,2486.2%$230,5007.5%422361297.4%
2017583$258,28710.3%$245,0006.3%412551304.0%
Total 00'-17'7,268
Summary 00' to 10'
Change 0.2%0.6%
Average 428$210,270$193,9777048170124
Summary 11' to 17'
Change 77.2%85.6%
Average 471$201,984$192,27960388753
1
Cumulative Days on Market initiated in 2006. Cumulative days equals the number of days on market over the course of the past year (i.e. covers number
of days if the property was relisted)
2
Lender Mediated Properties include foreclosures and short sales. MLS data for this property type began in July 2008.
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Elk River For-Sale Resales -2000 to 2017
$300,000700
ResalesMedian Sold PriceAverage Sold Price
600
$250,000
611
583
500
532
$200,000
519
496
466466
400
445
439
435
$150,000
397
390
382
360
300
353
340
324
313
$100,000
200
$50,000
100
$00
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 32
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE FS-2
SINGLE-FAMILY AND MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL SALES
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2000 through 2017
MedianAverage
NumberSelling%Selling%
Yearof SalesPriceChg.PriceChg.
Single-Family
2000318$162,400--$175,779--
2005411$251,9005.3%$272,3836.3%
2010235$181,0004.7%$193,9315.8%
2011273$160,000-11.6%$166,955-13.9%
2012293$175,0009.4%$181,4398.7%
2013350$189,4508.3%$202,38511.5%
2014353$214,90013.4%$225,62311.5%
2015404$237,53610.5%$228,0001.1%
2016367$256,3567.9%$242,3966.3%
2017437$282,55010.2%$269,90011.3%
Pct. Change
00' - 17'37.4%74.0%53.5%
Multifamily*
200035$142,580--$145,163--
2005108$172,7753.4%$184,2272.8%
201078$107,4427.4%$110,5553.3%
2011109$90,000-16.2%$92,842-16.0%
201297$105,00016.7%$106,74615.0%
201395$117,50011.9%$119,31311.8%
2014113$135,00014.9%$150,57026.2%
2015128$167,30423.9%$152,4501.2%
2016129$172,3533.0%$155,0001.7%
2017146$185,6657.7%$167,5008.1%
Pct. Change
00' - 17'317.1%30.2%15.4%
* Multifamily includes twinhomes, townhomes, and condominiums (cooperatives are typically
not listed in the MLS)
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 33
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE FS-3
HOME RESALES BY SALES PRICE & PRODUCT TYPE
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2017
Single-familyMultifamilyCombined
Price RangeNo.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under $100,00020.5%10.7%30.5%
$100,000 to $149,99961.4%2013.7%264.5%
$150,000 to $199,9995312.1%8658.9%13923.8%
$200,000 to $249,99911626.5%2013.7%13623.3%
$250,000 to $299,99911125.4%1611.0%12721.8%
$300,000 to $349,9997717.6%21.4%7913.6%
$350,000 to $399,999429.6%10.7%437.4%
$400,000 to 499,999286.4%00.0%284.8%
$500,000+20.5%00.0%20.3%
Total437100.0%146100.0%583100.0%
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Resales by Price Point & Type: 2017
80.0%
72.6%
70.0%
SFMF
60.0%
51.9%
50.0%
40.0%
27.2%
30.0%
24.7%
20.0%
13.5%
6.4%
10.0%
0.7%
0.5%0.5%
0.0%
<$100k$100k-$200k$200k-$300k$300k-$400k$400k-$500k$500k+
Sales Price
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 34
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE FS-4
HOUSING SALES PER SQUARE FOOT (PSF)
ELK RIVER
2005 to 2017
MedianAvg.Existing HomeNew Const.
Year
PSFPSFMedian PSFMedian PSF
2005$122$131$116$140
2006$117$126$114$127
2007$113$121$113$113
2008$92$98$90$118
2009$79$82$76$103
2010$82$85$79$107
2011$69$72$68$111
2012$76$80$76$130
2013$86$92$84$130
2014$94$98$91$136
2015$100$105$99$148
2016$106$114$104$174
2017$114$122$112$171
Source: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Elk River Sales per Square Foot (PSF)
$140
Median PSFAvg. PSF
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Year
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 35
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE FS-5
HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR-SALE
CITY OF ELK RIVER
February 2018
1
Single-FamilyMultifamily
Price RangeNo.Pct.No.Pct.
< $99,99900.0%00.0%
$100,000 to $149,99912.3%110.0%
$150,000 to $174,99912.3%110.0%
$175,000 to $199,99937.0%110.0%
$200,000 to $249,99937.0%330.0%
$250,000 to $299,9991330.2%110.0%
$300,000 to $349,999818.6%330.0%
$350,000 to $399,999614.0%00.0%
$400,000 and Over818.6%00.0%
43100%10100%
Minimum$109,900$148,000
Maximum$674,000$349,150
Median$305,990$217,950
Average$322,646$237,245
1
Includes townhomes (attached & detached), twinhomes, and
condominiums
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Elk River Active Listings -February 2018
16
Single-FamilyMultifamily
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Under $100k$100k to$150k to$200k to$250k to$300k to$400k+
$149.9k$199.9k$249.9k$299.9k$399.9k
List Price
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 36
37
ANALYSIS
MARKET
FOR SALE MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
Listings by Housing Type -Elk River
18.9%
Townhomes
15.1%
3-level split+
11.3%
Split entry
30.2%
2 story+
1.9%
1.5-story
22.6%
1 story
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%
Pct.
Average List Price by Type
$450,000
$180
$400,000
$160
$350,000
$140
$300,000
$120
$250,000
$100
$200,000
$80
$150,000
$60
$100,000
$40
$50,000
$20
$0$0
1 story1.5-story2 story+Split entry3-level split+Townhomes
Avg. List PricePSF
Housing Type
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 38
39
ANALYSIS
MARKET
FOR SALE MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
40
ANALYSIS
MARKET
FOR SALE MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
Summary of For Sale Market Conditions
Residential Resales
The number of home sales reached 583 in 2017 which is the highest figure since 2004. The
average days on market continues to decline and remains low in 2017 at 51 days and a me-
dian of 30 days.
Since 2015,the median sales price of residential propertieshas risen 18%, from $214,450 in
2013 to $245,000 in 2017. Single-family homes during this time increased 19% from
$237,536 to $282,550 while multifamily homes increased 11% from $167,304 to $185,665.
Home resale prices have been rising steadily since the lowest point in 2011.
In 2017, 69% of home sales range from $150,000 to $299,999 with the largest proportion of
residential resales occurred in the $150,000 to $199,999 bracket with 24% of the sales oc-
curring. The majority of sales (62%) in this price point were multifamily units. Homes that
sold from $200,000 to $249,999 accounted for 23% of total sales in 2017 and consisted of
85% single-family units. Another 22% of homes were sold between $250,000 and $299,999
with 87% consisting of single-family units.
Active Listings
The median list price for single family homes in Elk River was $305,990 in February 2018
compared to $279,900 back in August 2015. Multifamily homes listed in February 2018 had
a median list price of $217,950 which is relatively similar to that back in August 2015 at
$215,725.
There was a total of 53 homes listed for sale in February 2018 compared to 150 homes back
in August 2015. The difference can be attributed to the time of year with less homes typi-
cally listed during winter months. Single family listings accounted for 81% of the listings.
On average, multi-family listings were slightly newer, with an average year built of 2005,
compared to an average year built of 2003 for single-family homes. This indicates that a
number of active listings are newly constructed homes
Lot Supply
There are 161 lots available in active subdivisions with 81 lots available in newer subdivision
active since 2017. The largest proportion of lots are in Miske Meadows subdivision with 51
vacant developable lots with homes marketing from $250,000 to $400,000.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 41
FOR SALEMARKET ANALYSIS
There is a total of 318 future single family lots planned in Elk River. 222 of lots are located
in currentlyactive subdivisions (Miske Meadows, River Park, and Woodland Hills). Another
57 lots are located in recently absorbed subdivisions (Eagles Marsh and Hillside Estates).
The remaining 39 future lots are in recently platted subdivisions (Anborn, Trace Heights,
and Cranberry Ridge).
Only one multifamily townhome development is currently active (Boulder Point) with 4 va-
cant developable lots. Tall Pines has plans for 26 future townhome units.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 42
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for For-Sale Housing
TABLE HD-1
FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 to 2025
Demand from Projected Household Growth
415
Projected HH growth under age 65 in the Market Area 2017 to 2025¹
2
76.5%
(times) % propensity to ownx
317
(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth=
Demand from Existing Owner Households
3
5,287
Number of owner households (age 64 and younger) in Market Area (2017)
4
(times) Estimated percent of owner turnoverx30%
1,586
(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover=
(times) Estimated percent desiring new housingx10.0%
159
(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2017 to 2025=476
(times) Demand from outside Elk River Market Area15%
560
(equals) Total demand potential for ownership housing, 2017 to 2025
Single Multi-
Familyfamily*
5
(times) Percent desiring for-sale single-family vs. multifamilyx85%15%
(equals) Total demand potential for new single-family & multifamily for-sale housing=47684
6
(minus) Units marketing or approved platted lots (undeveloped and developed lots)-1614
(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy for-sale housing =31580
1
Estimated household growth based on data from Table D-1 as adjusted by Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2
Pct. of owner households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census American Community Survey - 2016)
3
Estimate based on 2016 owner households under age 65 (US Census American Community Survey)
4
Based on on turnover from 2010 American Community Survey for households moving over 10-year period.
5
Based on preference for housing type and land availability
6
Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot supply which includes individual lots and lots in older non-marketing subdivisions.
*
Multi-family demand includes demand for townhomes, detached townhomes, twinhomes, and condominium units.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts (increasing older adult popula-
tion), we project 85% of the for-sale owners will prefer traditional single-family product types
while the remaining 15% will prefer a maintenance-free multi-family product (i.e. twin homes,
townhomes, or condominiums).
We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are under construction or approved.
After subtracting the current lot supply in subdivisions (161 total single-family and four
multifamily lots) we find total demand through 2025 resulting in 315 single-family lots and 80
multifamily lots.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 43
44
Occupancy Rental Housing
-
& CONSULTING, LLC
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSISEstimated Demand for General MAXFIELD RESEARCH
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
We find demand for 34 subsidized units, 101affordable units and 210 market rate units. After
subtracting the proposed rental development (40 unit mixed income development) results in
demand for 34 subsidized units, 93 affordable units and 172 market rate units in Elk River
through 2025.
Estimated Demand for Independent/Few Service Senior Housing
TABLE HD-3
MARKET RATE ADULT/FEW SERVICES HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
20172022
Age of HouseholderAge of Householder
55-6465-7475+55-6465-7475+
1
# of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,0001,3077413801,329849401
1
# of Households w/ Incomes of $24,999 to $34,999+8983103+9189115
(times ) Homeownership Rate x 78%88%63%x 78%88%63%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base=1,376814445=1,400927473
(times) Potential Capture Rate x0.5%5.0%15.0%x0.5%5.0%15.0%
(equals) Demand Potential =74167=74671
Potential Demand from Market Area Residents=114=124
2
(plus Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)+38+41
(equals) Total Demand Potential=152=166
Owner-Renter-Owner-Renter-
OccupiedOccupiedOccupiedOccupied
(times) % by Product Typex40%x60%x40%x60%
(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type=61=91=66=99
3
(minus) Existing and Pending MR Active Adult Units-111-77-111-77
(equals) Excess Demand for MR Active Adult Units=0=14=0=22
1
2020 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner households with incomes
between $30,000 and $39,999.
2
Based on project manager interviews and historical trends. We estimate that roughly 40% of demand will come from outside the markt area.
3
Existing and pending projects are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy). 2022 includes the Elk River Senior Living development currently
under construction.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Total demand for 14 renter occupied units in 2017while demand for owner-occupied housing
is being absorbed by the current supply. Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that
households with incomes of $40,000 or more and homeowners with incomes of $30,000 to
$39,999 would income qualify for market rate independent senior housing in 2022. It is pro-
jected demand for adult owner-occupied will continue to absorbed by existing units while de-
mand exists for 22 adult rental units in the City of Elk River through 2022.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 45
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for Affordable and Subsidized Independent Senior Housing
TABLE HD-4
AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
20172022
Age of HouseholderAge of Householder
55-6465-7475+55-6465-7475+
# of Households w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $54,400284212254251222284
(times ) Percent Renter Households x 22%12%37%x 22%12%37%
(equals) Total Potential Market Base=6326935527105
(times) Potential Capture Rate x1.5%10.0%20.0%x1.5%10.0%20.0%
(equals) Demand Potential =1319=1321
Total Market Rate Demand Potential=22=24
(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (40%)+15+16
(equals) Total Demand Potential=37=41
1
(minus) Existing and Pending Aff. Independent Units-0-0
(equals) Total Demand Potential in Market Area=37=41
1
Includes existing and pending units at 95% occupancy, or market equilibrium. No additional units are planned through 2022.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HD-5
SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
20172022
Age 65+ Households w/Incomes < $20,000292331
(times) Percent of Income Qualified Seniors Needing/Desiring Subsidized Senior Housingx30%30%
(equals) Demand Potenital from Market Area residents=8899
(plus) Demand From Ouside the Market Area (40%)+5866
(equals) Total Demand Potential for Subsidized Senior Housing in Market Area146166
(minus) Existing & Pending Subsidized Senior Units in Market Area*-114114
(equals) Total Market Area Subsidized Senior Housing Demand Potential=3252
* Competitive subsidized units, minus a 7% vacancy rate.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
We estimate that the total demand potential for affordableand subsidizedrentals will equal
37 and 32 units respectively in 2017.By 2022,the demand potential will increase to 41 af-
fordable units and 52 subsidized units.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 46
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing
TABLE HD-6
MARKET RATE CONGREGATE HOUSING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
20172022
Age of Age of
HouseholderHouseholder
65-7475+65-7475+
741380849401
# of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000¹
8310389115
# of Households w/ Incomes of $25,000 to $34,999¹++
88%63%88%63%
(times) Homeownership Ratexx
73657872
(equals) Potential Market==
814445927473
(equals) Total Potential Market Base==
(times) Potential Capture Rate²x1.5%13.0%x1.5%13.0%
12581462
(equals) Demand Potential =+=+
7075
Potential Demand from Market Area Residents==
2325
(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)++
93101
(equals) Total Demand Potential==
3
034
(minus) Existing and Pending Congregate Units--
(equals) Excess Demand for Congregate Units=93=67
¹ 2020 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner
households with incomes between $30,000 and $49,999.
² The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health
Interview Survey, 2007 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The capture rate used is the percentage of seniors
needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs (seniors needing assistance with ADLs typcially need assistance with multiple IADLs and
are primary candidates for assisted living.).
3
Existing and pending are deducted at market equilibrium (95%
occupancy).
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
We estimate a totaldemand calculated for 93 congregate units in Elk Riverin 2017. Adjusting
for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes of $40,000 or more and senior home-
owners with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999 would qualify for congregate housing in
2025. Following the same methodology and accounting for the units under construction at the
Elk River Senior Living development, demand is calculated to decline to 67 units through 2025
in Elk River.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 47
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing
TABLE HD-7
MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
20172022
NumberNumber
PercentPercent
NeedingNeeding
NeedingNeeding
11
AssistanceAssistance
Age groupPeopleAssistance¹PeopleAssistance¹
110152
75 - 7943225.5%59725.5%
99110
80 - 8429633.6%32633.6%
177178
85+34351.6%34551.6%
387440
Total1,0711,268
2
53%53%
Percent Income-Qualified
205233
Total potential market
53%53%
(times) Percent living alonex
109124
(equals) Age/income-qualified singles needing assistance=
1517
(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)³+
123140
(equals) Total age/income-qualified market needing assistance=
4
40%40%
(times) Potential penetration ratex
4956
(equals) Potential demand from PMA residents=
2124
(plus) Proportion from outside the PMA (30%)+
7180
(equals) Total potential assisted living demand=
5
5693
(minus) Existing market rate assisted living units
150
(equals) Total excess market rate assisted living demand=
1
The percentage of seniors needing assistance with ADLs, based on the 2005 panels of the Survey of Income and Program
Participation (SIPP) files, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.
2
Includes households with incomes of $40,000 or more (who could afford monthly rents of $4,000+ per month) plus 40% of the
estimated owner households with incomes below $50,000 (who will spend down assets, including home-equity, in order to live
in assisted living housing).
3
The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project of AAHSA, ASHA, ALFA, NCAL & NIC) found that 12% of assisted
living residents are couples.
4
We estimate that 60% of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less
advanced senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care provided in a
skilled care facility.
5
Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy.
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC.
We estimate an excessdemand for 15assisted living units in Elk Riverin 2017. By 2022,total
excess demand for market rate assisted living units in Elk Riveris projected to be absorbed by
the units at the Elk River Senior Living development under construction.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 48
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing
TABLE HD-8
MEMORY CARE DEMAND
ELK RIVER
2017 & 2022
20172022
65 to 74 Population1,6551,984
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate¹x2%x2%
(equals) Estimated Age 65 to 74 Pop. with Dementia=33=40
75 to 84 Population728923
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate¹x19%x19%
(equals) Estimated Age 75 to 84 Pop. with Dementia=138=175
85+ Population343345
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate¹x42%x42%
(equals) Estimated Age 85+ Pop. with Dementia=144=145
(equals) Total Senior Population with Dementia=315=360
(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified²x45%x45%
(equals) Total Income-Qualified Market Base=142=162
(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistancex25%x25%
(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care=35=40
(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (30%)+15+17
Total Demand Potential=5158
(minus) Existing and Pending Memory Care Units³-28-50
(equals) Excess Demand for Memory Care Units=23=8
¹ Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2009)
² Income-qualified households consider 3/4 of those with incomes greater than $60,000 plus 15% of homeowners with
incomes below this threshold.
³ Existing memory care units less units occupied by public pay residents and a 7% vacancy rate.
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
We estimate the excessdemand for memory care units in Elk River to be 23 units in 2017. Fol-
lowing the same methodology, demand is calculated to decrease to 8 memory care units
through 2022 after accounting for the units under construction at the Elk River Senior Living de-
velopment.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 49
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Demand Summary/Overall Housing Recommendations
TABLE CR-1
SUMMARY OF HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF ELK RIVER
February 2017
Type of Use2017-20252015
General-Occupancy
Rental Units - Market Rate172
Rental Units - Affordable93
Rental Units - Subsidized34
For-Sale Units - Single-family315
For-Sale Units - Multifamily80
Total General Occupancy Supportable694
20172022
Age-Restricted (Senior)
Market Rate
Adult Few Services (Active Adult)1422
Ownership00
Rental1422
Congregate9367
Assisted Living150
Memory Care238
Total Market Rate Senior Supportable14597
Affordable/Subsidized
Active Adult - Subsidized3232
Active Adult - Affordable3741
Total Affordable Senior Supportable6973
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 50
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
General-Occupancy Demand by Type
2017 to 2025
For-Sale Units - Multifamily
80
For-Sale Units - Single-family
315
Rental Units - Subsidized
34
Rental Units - Affordable
93
Rental Units - Market Rate
172
050100150200250300350
Units
Senior Housing Demand by Type
2017 & 2022
Adult - Owner
20172022
14
Adult - Rental
22
93
Congregate
67
20
Assisted Living
0
23
Memory Care
8
37
Affordable
41
Subsidized
0102030405060708090100110
Units
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 51
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
TABLE CR-2
RECOMMENDED HOUSING DEVELOPMENT
CITY OF ELK RIVER
2017 to 2025
Purchase Price/No. of Pct.Development
Monthly Rent Range¹Unitsof TotalTiming
Owner-Occupied Homes
2
Single Family
Entry-level>$225,00065-7024%2018+
Move-up$250,000 - $350,000155-16556%2018+
Executive$350,000+55-6020%2018+
Total275-295100%
2
Townhomes/Detached Townhomes/Twinhomes
Entry-level>$200,00030-3546%2018+
Move-up$200,000+35-4054%2018+
Total65-75100%
Total Owner-Occupied340-370
General Occupancy Rental Housing
Market Rate Rental Housing
Apartment-style$1,000/1BR - $1,500/3BR100-12067%2018+
Townhomes$1,250/2BR - $1,600/3BR50-6033%2018+
Total150-180100%
Affordable Rental Housing
3
Apartment-styleModerate Income60-6067%2018+
3
TownhomesModerate Income25-3533%2018+
Total85-95100%
Total Renter-Occupied235-275
Senior Housing (i.e. Age Restricted)
3
Active Adult Affordable RentalModerate Income35-4029%2018+
4
Active Adult Market Rate Rental$950/1BR - $1,200/2BR+50-6043%2019+
Independent Living (Congregate)$1,750/1BR - $1,950/2BR30-4027%2020+
Total115-140100%
Total - All Units690-785
¹ Pricing in 2015 dollars. Pricing can be adjusted to account for inflation.
2
Recommendations include the absorption of some existing previously platted lots.
3
Affordablity subject to income guidelines per MHFA. See Table HA-1 for Sherburne County Income limits.
4
Alternative development concept is to combine active adult affordable and market rate active adult into mixed-income senior
community
Note - Recommended development does not coincide with total demand. Elk River may not be able to accommodate all recommended housing
types based on a variety of factors (i.e. development constraints, land availability, etc.)
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
There are over 300 future single family lots planned/proposed based on Table FS-7. If all of
these lots were platted, the above recommended single family lots would be absorbed. The
industry recommends a three- to five-year lot supply. Based on the average lot absorbtion of
83 lots per year from the past three years (2015-2017), the City of Elk River currently falling
short of a three-year lot supply and would need to add nearly 90 lots to the market. A portion
of the planned future lots would be able to bring the commuity to the recommend supply.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 52
DEMAND SUMARY AND HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
With the development of Elk River Senior Living and Guardian Angels Riverview Landing which
are both under construction and set to be completed later in 2018, demand for assited living
and memory care senior housing will be absorbed. These newly developed and existing units
will be adequate into the foreseeable future.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 53
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Rental Housing Demand Analysis
Table HD-2 presents our calculation ofmarket rate, affordable, and subsidized general-occu-
pancy rental housing demand for the SherburneCountyAnalysis Area. This analysis identifies
potential demand for rental housing that is generated from both new households and turnover
households.
According to our projections, the Sherburne County Analysis Area is expected to increase by
1,625 non-senior households and 2,095 senior households between 2020 and 2030. Be-
cause the 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general-occupancy
market rate rental housing, we limit demand from seniorhousehold growth to only 20% of
those households over the age of 65.
We identify the percentage of households that are likely to rent their housing based on
2010 tenure data and estimates from 2020. The propensity to rent ranges from 15% to 39%
for non-senior and 4% to 33% for seniors based on the submarket. After adjusting house-
hold growth by renters, there is growth of 388 renters through 2030 for renter households
in the Sherburne County Analysis Area.
Secondly, we calculate demand from existing households in the Sherburne County Analysis
Area that could be expected to turnover between 2020 and 2030. As of 2020, there are
5,260 non-senior renter households and 1,328 senior renter households in the County Anal-
ysis Area. Based on household turnover data from the 2018 American Community Survey,
we estimate that between 83% and 93% of non-senior households and between 4% and
78% of senior households will experience turnover between 2020 and 2030 (turnover rate
varies by submarket).
We then estimate the percent of existing renter households turning over that would prefer
to rent in a new rental development. Considering the age of the County Analysis Area’s
housing stock, we estimate that 17% of the households turning over in the Sherburne
County Analysis Area will desire new rental housing. This estimate results in demand from
existing households for 814 new residential rental units between 2020 and 2030.
Combining demand from household growth plus turnover results in total demand in the
County Analysis Area for 1,203 rental units between 2020 and 2030.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 205
206
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Like for-sale housing, we estimate that 20% to 30% of the total demand for new rental
housing units in the SherburneCounty Analysis Area will come from people currently living
outside of one of the sevensubmarkets.
Based on a review of renter household incomes and sizes and monthly rents at existing
properties, we estimate that 50% to 80% of the total demand will be for market rate hous-
ing. Through 2030, demand exists for 895market rate rental units in the SherburneCounty
Analysis Area.
We estimate that 15% to 32% of the total demand in the Sherburne County Analysis Area
will be for affordable housing and 5% to 20% will be for subsidized housing. The percentage
breakdown varies by submarket. Through 2030, demand exists for 413 affordable rental
units and 220 subsidized rental units in the Sherburne County Analysis Area.
Rental Housing Demand by Submarket
2020 -2030
350
Market Rate
300
Affordable
288
250
Subsidized
200
150
140
100
130
123
120
106
91
89
50
72
67
3593417314839505016
0
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 207
237
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC