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6.4. SR 12-05-2005 Item 6.4. MEMORANDUM TO: Mayor and City Council FROM: Lori Johnson, Finance and Administrative Services Director/Interim City Administrator DATE: December 5, 2005 SUBJECT: Pinewood Appraisal Presentation Attached is a copy of the Analysis of Market and Financial Factors for the Pinewood Golf Course prepared by McMurchie Golf Management, Inc. Mr. McMurchie will make a presentation to the City Council and will be prepared to answer questions regarding his analysis. Parks and Recreation Director Bill Maertz worked with Mr. McMurchie on gathering information for the analysis, and he will be also be prepared to answer questions from the Council. The Letter of Intent authorized by the Council for the purchase of this property offers a purchase price of $2.4 million over five years at five percent interest with a $500,000 down payment if the appraisal indicates that the property is worth $2.4 million. A copy of the Letter of Intent sent to Mr. Krause is attached for your reference. The Council previously received some information on possible funding sources, but no action was taken to specify which funds would pay for the purchase. If the purchase proceeds, the Council needs to identify the funding source(s) for the purchase, capital improvements (as stated in Mr. McMurchie's analysis) and possible annual operating shortfalls. Attached is fmancial data identifying possible sources for the down payment and the annual payments. The biggest challenge is funding the balloon payment that is due in the fmal year of the contract. In order to fund that payment, the Council would need to either reserve the funds now or annually reserve funds at an amount sufficient to cover the balloon payment. As you can see, there is currently money available in several reserve funds to fund part of the purchase. However, these reserve funds are the likely funding source for other projects such as the library expansion, public works expansion and remodeling, and park property acquisition and development. Plus, there will be other opportunities or needs that come up in the next five years that would typically be funded from these reserves. The purchase of Pinewood will significantly reduce the funds available to the Council for other city projects. s: \ Council\Lori\200S \Pinewood Appraisal Presentation. doc Further, there are approximately $175,000 of capital costs that need to be incurred within the fIrst two years of ownership. Part of this cost is to bring the clubhouse into compliance with the American with Disabilities Act. These improvements would need to be completed prior to the city operating the golf course. The same reserve funds used for the purchase could fund these capital costs; the mowing equipment could be fmanced through equipment certifIcates that would be paid through property taxes. In addition, if annual revenues do not meet all operating costs, funds would need to be available to offset the shortfalls. Mr. McMurchie's projections show that there is a slight income each year; however, this may be optimistic given that the personnel expenses for the city are likely higher than those included in the projections. If the city were to fund these defIcits similar to the way it funds the Ice Arena defIcits, it would be part of the general fund tax levy. In conclusion, if the Council proceeds with this purchase, funding sources for the purchase, capital costs, and possible operating shortfalls need to be identifIed.d s: \ Council\Lori\2005 \Pinewood Appraisal Presentation. doc PINEWOOD GOLF COURSE Elk River, Minnesota ANALYSIS of MARKET and FINANCIAL FACTORS November 28, 2005 The City of Elk River has been engaged in discussions concerning a possible acquisition of Pinewood, a nine hole golf course located in the northernmost portion of the community. The City has retained McMurchie Golf Management, Inc. to provide analysis of the existing golf course operation and the dynamics of a potential acquisition. From a review of the facility, and subsequent analysis, the following findings are offered to assist the City regarding the feasibility of purchasing Pinewood Golf Course. Prepared: November 28, 2005 All inquiries regarding this document should be directed to: McMurchie Golf Management, Inc. AI McMurchie 1810 W. 31st Street Minneapolis, Minnesota 55408 (612) 825-4285 FACILITY DESCRIPTION Pinewood Golf Course lies on the northern border of the City of Elk River, a town of just over 19,000 people located in Sherburne County on the extreme northern edge of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area. The golf course is a nine hole executive length course on approximately 27 acres of land. Course length ranges from 1,497 to 1,832 yards with a par of 30. A site visit on November 16, 2005 was limited by poor winter weather conditions. However, the golf course appeared to be modern in design with small greens, small tee stations with two (2) platforms on some holes, and no observable bunkering. The small size of the site may create ball flight problems on several of the holes on the boundaries of the property. Ball flight into neighboring properties and roadways on holes #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, and #8 may be problematic but was difficult to determine during the site visit. If ball flight problems are a problem from any of these holes, due to the small configuration of the property no reasonable solution exists either in terms of hole redesign or barrier construction. Turfgrass condition was unobservable due to snow cover but was reported to be good. A Toro single row irrigation system installed approximately 20 years ago at the time of course construction covers the nine holes. The irrigation water source is adequate with the overall system supplied directly by a well and 160 gallon per minute pump system. A pole barn of approximately 1,350 square feet serves as an adequate maintenance facility. No specialized facility exists for either gasoline storage or pesticide storage. The inventory of maintenance equipment must be considered dated with the majority of day-to-day cutting equipment five (5) to ten (10) years old or older. Turf cutting equipment including greensmower, fairway mower, and rough mower will be due for replacement in a two (2) to three (3) year period. Other equipment pieces including tractor with front end loader, teemower, utility vehicles, and sprayer attachment are all past industry replacement standards in terms of either age or hours used. Equipment such as aerator, top dresser, and fertilizer spreader are not part of the observed equipment inventory. A clubhouse consists of approximately 1,700 square feet and is dated in its decor. A golfer check-in area with counter and snack sales occupies the front section of the building with a small area for tables and chairs. Two (2) small rest rooms, men's and women's, are towards the rear from the counter area and are not handicap accessible. The building also contains a simple party room accommodating between 30 to 40 people toward the rear. The parking lot is adequate in size and is in fair condition but will require seal coat and crack repair in the near term. Overall the physical viability of this golf facility can be rated as good. Any potential new operator would need to be aware of the following physical limitations: 1. The size of the site and proximity of neighboring properties may cause problems in the areas of ball flight and trespassing pedestrian traffic. 2. There is no available land for driving range expansion. 3. The clubhouse will require some level of investment in order to update its decor and comply with ADA requirements. 4. Golf course items such as maintenance equipment and irrigation system are nearing the end of their useful life and represent significant investments in the next two (2) to ten (10) year period. 1 MARKET ANAL VSIS On a national basis in 1990 there were 11,178 golf courses for 23 million golfers. By 2003, course supply had increased to 14,827 or 32 percent with the majority of that increase coming in daily-fee facilities. Meanwhile, the number of golfers rose to 27.4 million, just 15 percent. Rounds per year in the U.S. have shrunk from the all time high of 518 million in 2000 to 495 million in 2003. The chart below illustrates the national golf market trend through the early 2000's: Demand 2000 2001 +/- 2002 +/- 2003 +/- Golfers (in millions) 25.4 25.8 2% 26.2 2% 27.4 5% Rounds (in millions) 518.4 518.1 (0%) 502.4 (3%) 494.9 (1%) Supply 18 Hole Equivalents 14,268 14,549 2% 14,725 1% 14,827 1% Source: National Go. Foundation Within the Minneapolis/Saint Paul metropolitan area, demand and supply factors have caused a parallel downturn in the golf market. Metro population growth from 1990 to 2004 increased by 567,000 people or 22 percent. The metro supply of golf holes meanwhile increased by 954 holes or 44 percent. Supply has clearly out paced demand in the market causing less rounds available per golf course. In addition, a significant portion of metro population growth has occurred in minority segments that are characterized by low golf participation rates. Also as the area population ages, there will continue to be more senior golfers in the market. This segment by nature demands discounted senior rates making the protection of core green fees more and more problematic. On the supply side, private owners of public golf courses in the metropolitan area will continue to take advantage of rising land values, liquidating their golf businesses and selling the land for residential or commercial development. Government units will be largely unable to stop these transactions from either a legal or financial perspective. In addition, development of new golf courses by both the private and public sectors has ceased due to market factors, land costs, and financial challenges. As a consequence, the metro golf market is experiencing a decrease in the supply of public courses. While the condition of the national and metro golf markets has declined, the condition of the localized golf market is more critical for the future of this golf course investment. The chart below summarizes key local market data for the City of Elk River and Sherburne County: City of Elk River 2000 2005 +/- 2010 +/- 2020 +/- Population 16,447 19,112 16% 21,611 13% 26,313 22% Sherburne County Population 62,797 75,890 21% 86,350 14% 105,630 22% Households 21,581 26,020 21% 30,530 17% 38,920 27% Age-5to19 16,370 18,450 13% 19,660 7% 22,620 15% Age - 60 to 79 4,964 6,210 25% 8,270 33% 14,430 74% Source: Minnesota Decartmenl of Plannino Population growth is the main indicator of future demand for golf. With the projected growth.trends shown, this market area must be considered excellent for future golf participation. In addition, forecast growth in the senior and junior golfer age groups is also an excellent indicator for this profile of golf facility. By 2020, the 60 to 79 age bracket will increase by 8,220 potential senior golfers and comprise close to 14 percent of the overall county population. The number of potential junior golfers also increases in the time period by 4,170, comprising 21 percent of the population in 2020. 2 OPERATING PROJECTIONS Audited financial statements for previous years of operation were not available for analysis. To determine the value of Pinewood as a golf course business, a projection of future net operating income is necessary. The projections depicted in the following chart assume three (3) percent growth in the facility's financial performance. This conservative growth assumption is based on stabilizing round volume at 18,000 rounds annually, 10 percent below the facility's previous peak volume performance of 20,000 rounds. In addition, the following assumptions were utilized for the projection: 1. Golf car rental revenues assume 20 percent ridership beginning at current rate of $11 per car rental. 2. Food and beverage sales are projected at $1.50 per golf visit (round). 3. Clubhouse personnel expense projected as: 200 day season @ 12 hours/day = 2,400 hours @ $12/ hour = $28,800 ($30,000 rounded) 4. Golf course. maintenance expense projected as: Maintenance Supervisor: 40 weeks @ 40 hours/week = 2,400 hours @ $20/hour = $32,000 Laborers: 3 laborers @ 20 weeks @ 20 hours/week = 1,500 hours @ $1 O/hour = $15,000 5. Payroll taxes and benefit costs are projected as 25 percent of total personnel expense. 6. Food and beverage cost of sales equals 50 percent of projected sales. 7. Merchandise cost of sales equals 85 percent of projected sales. projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Assumption 2006 'J!Xfl 20CB 2009 2010 REVENUE Rounds 16,000 16.soo 17,000 17,500 18,000 Average Green Fee 3.0"10 $10.50 $10.81 $11.14 $11.47 $11.82 Green Fee Revenue 168,000 178,448 189,371 200,789 212,721 Golf Car Rentals 3.0"10 18,000 18,540 19,096 19,669 20,259 Food & Beverage Sales 3.0% 24,000 24,720 25,462 26,225 27,012 Merchandise Sales 3.0"10 5,000 5,150 5,304- 5,464 5,628 TOTAL REVENUE 215,000 226,858 239,233 252,147 265,620 OPERATING EXPENSE Personnel-Clubhouse 3.0"10 30,000 30,900 31,827 32,782 33,765 Personnel-Maintenance 3.0"10 47,000 48,410 49,862 51,358 52,899 Payroll TaxeslBenefits @25% 3.0"10 19,250 19,828 20,422 21,035 21,666 Total Personnel 96,250 99,138 102, 112 105,175 108,330 Clubhouse Other Expense 3.0"/0 30,000 30,900 31,827 32,782 33,765 Maintenance Other Expense 3.0"10 50,000 51,500 53,045 54,636 56,275 Cost of Sales 3.0"10 16,250 16,738 17,240 17,7Sl 18,290 Total Other Expense 96,250 99,138 102,112 105,175 108,330 TOTAL OPER. EXPENSE 192,500 198,275 204,223 210,350 216,660 NET OPERATING INCOME 22,500 28,582 35,010 41,797 48,960 NET OPERATING MARGIN 10% 13% 15% 17% 18% Due to current market factors, significant revenue performance is limited due to flat demand for rounds and by probable market resistance to significant rate increases. The resulting net operating income prediction is in the range of $22,000 to $48,000 for the near term. Projected margin performance is stabilized at 18 percent, approximating the industry average for comparable nine hole facilities. 3 SUPPORTABLE PURCHASE PRICE The following chart illustrates the method required to calculate a supportable purchase price. Financing is based on a 20 year amortization period with five (5) percent interest. NET OPERATING INCOME YEAR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 N.O.I. $22,500 $28,582 $35,010 $41,797 $48,960 FINANCING ASSUMPTIONS Debt.Coverage Ratio Amortization Period Interest Rate Finance Closing Cost Short Term Investment Rate Operating Reserve Annual Loan Amortization Rate 1.3 20.00 5.00% $47~000 5.00% $50,000 0.0802425 SUPPORTABLE LOAN AMOUNT Stabilized N.O.!. - 2010 Coverage Ratio Income Available for Debt Service Annual Loan Amortization Rate Supportable Loan Amount Rounded 48,960 1.3 37,662 0.0802425 $469,347 $470,000 SUPPORTABLE PURCHASE PRICE Less: Finance Closing Cost Reserve for Operating Shortfalls Add: Reserve Interest Income (Year 1) (47,000) (50,000) Supportable Purchase Price Rounded 2,500 (94,500) 375,500 $375,000 Net Deductions Based on the stabilized net operating income projection, the project has a supportable loan amount of $470,000 (rounded). After deductions for closing costs and the establishment of an operating reserve, the supportable purchase price is $375,000. 4 CONCLUSIONS As the purchase of Pinewood Golf Course is contemplated by the City of Elk River, the City must be aware of the following factors that limit the value of the property as a golf business. 1. Market Conditions. Analysis of both national and local market characteristics indicates a combination of declining participation rates, declining rounds played, and a correction to golf course supply in its beginning stages. 2. This type of golf'facility draws from a relatively small localized market only. The majority of golfer visits will come from within the local community or immediate border community. Golfers participating on a short length nine hole course will tend to limit their travel time to fifteen minutes or less. 3. Executive length golf courses appeal to beginner and intermediate level golfers who tend to participate .on good weather days only. In a typical season, the number of effective business days for an executive length nine can be 20 to 30 percent less than that of a full length eighteen hole golf course. 4. By nature, the business size of a short length nine hole golf course is limited due not only to volume factors but to localized resistance to rate increases. Further, this golf course will become more and more reliant on senior age golfers into the future. In order to attract and retain this category of golfer, discounting rates in the range of 10 to 20 percent is. inevitable. As a consequence, the average rate achieved may very well decrease over time with no appreciable upside to round volume. 5. Revenue from ancillary businesses is also very limited. No driving range, or space for a driving range exists on this property. With a short length course and minimal terrain challenge, demand for golf car rentals is minor. Food and beverage sales are confined to basic snack and beverage items due to the short length of the average golfer visit. 6. Required Property Improvements. Beyond the supportable purchase price of $375,000, the City would need to be aware of an additional $175,000 of equipment replacement and property improvements necessary in the next three (3) year period: CATEGORYJlTEM QUANTITY ESTIMATED COST TOTAL GOLF COURSE Irriga1ion system Upgrades 30,000 30,000 MAINTENANCE EQUIPMENT Triplex Mower with Reels 1 25,000 25,000 Fairway Mower 1 35,000 35,000 Heavy Weight Utility Vehicle 1 20,000 20,000 Sprayer AtIachrnent 1 15,000 15,000 UghtWeight UtiHlyVehicle 1 5,000 5,000 Turf Aerator 1 20,000 20,000 CLUBHOUSE Pal1<ing Lot Seal CoatICrack Repair 5,000 5,000 Interior Upgrades 20,000 20,000 TOTAL IMPROVEMENTS $175,000 5 7. Replacement cost. The City must also be aware of the probable development cost of a new facility of similar size and scope. A sample development budget for a comparable executive length nine hole golf course including a driving range is depicted by the following chart: CATEGORVnTEM COST DEVELOPMENT COSTS l.arD Ao;:J.jsiIicn 35 Acres @ $20,000 per Acre 700,000 Loan Closing Expense 150,000 Consbu:Iion Interest 150,000 Ca1stru::tion 8cncirg 1.25% 21,000 DEVELOPMENT COSTS - SUBTOTAL 1,021,000 GOLF COURSE Penrilling 20,000 ArcIitec:tiEngi 100,000 Mobtliza1icnlSile Preparation 100,000 Exc:avaIiInGracing 150,000 Drai1age 50,000 FeaILr'e Constn.dion 200,000 Irrigation System 250,000 Cart PalhslOlher S1rucIures 50,000 Driving Range ConslnJcti6n 100,000 Grow-inlMaturation 150,000 GOLF COURSE - SUBTOTAL 1,170,000 CLUBHOUSE Cli:lhouse Consbu:Iion 1,800 square feet @ $200 per square foot 360,000 Palking l.otIRoadway 100,000 ~ 20,000 Fumilure, FlXIures, & Equipment 30,000 CLUBHOUSE - SUBTOTAL 510,000 MAINTENANCE FACILITY Maintenance Buiking 1,500 square feet @ $100 per square foot 150,000 Maintenance ECJJipment 200,000 MAINTENANCE FACILITY - SUBTOTAL 350,000 START-UP COSTS Pre-Opening Malketing 15,000 Golf Course FIXIures 10,000 Driving Range Equipment 15,000 Inventories 15,000 Projecl~ 5.00% 155,000 START-UP COSTS - SUBTOTAL 210,000 TOTAL DEVELOPMENT COST 3,261,000 This budget represents a fully developed government unit golf course and driving range that in the end would be superior in quality and design to the existing Pinewood Golf Course. Combining the purchase price and required property improvements for Pinewood, the City would need to invest approximately 2.6 million as a minimum in order to own and operate this existing facility. The gap of $660,000 between a new course and a used course may prove to be minor in the long term when considering the business value of a driving range component on the potential new facility. 6 13065 Orono Parkway Elk River, MN 55330 November 14, 2005 Mr. Paul Krause 18099 Judicial Way North Lakeville MN 55044-7105 Re: Letter of Intent 1400 182nd Avenue NW . Elk River, Mn. Outlots A and B Pinewood Addition, and related personal property and equipment (Property) Dear Paul: The purpose of this letter is to set forth the basic business terms under which The City of Elk River, a municipal corporation ("Purchaserll) is willing to enter into an agreement to purchase the Property from Paul Krause ("Sellerll). Notwithstanding anything in this letter to the contrary, it is understood that there will be no binding agreement between the Seller and Purchaser regarding the sale of the Property unless and until the parties have executed a definitive purchase agreement. The proposed terms of the sale are as follows: 1. Purchase Price. The purchase price is $2,400,000.00, payable as follows: $500,000 at closing including earnest money $200,000 per year under a Contract for Deed at 5% interest, with the balance due in a balloon payment at the end of the fifth year. 2. Appraisal. Purchaser's obligation to enter into a purchase agreement with Seller is expressly conditioned upon Purchaser obtaining, prior to the the execution of a purchase agreement, an appraisal satisfactory to purchaser in its sole discretion, indicating that the Property is worth $2,400,000.00 or more. Phone: 763.635.1000 Fax: 763.635.1090 www.cLelk-river.mn.us - 1 - Page 2 3. Earnest Money. Upon execution of a purchase agreement, Purchaser would deposit with Escrow Agent (as hereinafter defined) earnest money in the amount of $25,000.00 (which, together with all interest earned thereon, is referred to herein as the "Earnest Money" ). The purchase agreement would provide that the Earnest Money would be delivered to the Seller at closing and credited against the purchase price. It also would provide that in the event Purchaser were to default under the purchase agreement, Seller's sole remedy would be to retain all Earnest Money as liquidated damages. 4. Escrow. The transaction would close through a mutually acceptable title insurance company ("Escrow Agent"). Escrow Agent would also issue to Purchaser a title insurance policy, subject to the Contract for Deed at closing. 5. Inspection Period. After execution of the purchase agreement, Purchaser would have a period of thirty (30) days to investigate, perform tests and approve the environmental and physical condition of the Property. Purchaser and its agents would have the right to enter onto the Property during the inspection period, for the purpose of performing, at Purchaser's expense, such tests, investigations and inspections as it deems appropriate. Purchaser would be obligated to repair ariy damage caused by such tests, investigations and inspections. If the environmental or physical condition were unsatisfactory to Purchaser in its discretion, it would have the right to terminate the purchase agreement and have the Earnest Money refunded to it. 6. Time of Closing. The closing would occur on the first business day which is at least Five (5) days after expiration of the inspection period. 7. Closing Documents. At the closing, the Seller would convey to Purchaser title to the Property subject to a Contract for Deed, using the appropriate Minnesota Uniform Conveyancing Blank calling for a warranty deed subj ect to no mortgages or other liens, easements, covenants, conditions, restrictions, or other title defects except those defects which may be approved by Purchaser in accordance with the purchase agreement. At the closing the Seller would also deliver to Purchaser a Certificate of Real Estate Value, a warranty bill of sale for any personal property or equipment, such other affidavits and other closing documents as are customary. 8. Title Insurance Policy and Survey. Purchaser would be responsible for payment of the premium for any title insurance it elects to purchase. The Seller would pay the cost of preparing the title insurance commitment. 9. Prorations/Closing Costs. Any real estate taxes payable in the year of closing would be prorated between Purchaser and Seller as ofthe date of closing. The Seller would pay any special assessments which have been levied or are pending as of the date of this letter. The Seller and Purchaser would share escrow and closing fees equally. The Seller would pay the state deed tax at the end of the Contract for Deed. Page 3 10. Representations and Warranties. The purchase agreement would contain customary warranties and representations by the Seller concerning the Property. 11. Contingencies. Purchaser's obligation to close would be contingent on the following: 1. Purchaser having determined that the environmental and physical condition of, and condition oftitle to, the Property is acceptable to it (See No.5 and 7 above). 12. Brokerage Commissions. Purchaser and the Seller would each warrant to the other that it has not dealt with any broker in connection with the transaction. Each party agrees to indemnify and hold harmless the other party from any brokerage commissions or fees due to any broker as a result of the indemnifying parties actions. It is understood that this letter is non-binding and neither the Seller nor Purchaser will be under any legal obligation to the other to sell or purchase the Property unless and until a purchase agreement in form and substance satisfactory to each of them has been executed. If Seller is willing to proceed on the terms outlined in this letter, please so advise me in writing and we will instruct Purchaser's attorneys to prepare a purchase agreement for consideration. Sincerely, ~^~ Stephanie Klinzing Mayor THE CITY OF ELK RNER ACCEPTED BY: Paul Krause Summary of Select Special Revenue Funds November 2, 2005 Balance Annual Fund Available Revenue Comments Library $ 350,000 $ 98,000 Host Fee Park Dedication 1,481,000 Landfill Construction Debris 209,000 Surcharge based on volume (1/3 of total as allowed by law) Government Building Reserve 609,000 487,000 Host Fee RDF Plant Reserve 429,000 110,000 Per agreement. Last payment per agreement is 2009 Capital Outlay Reserve Host Fee 590,000 243,000 Host Fee Total $ 1,837,000 $ 840,000 Notes: Host Fee is based on average current monthly collections. The fee is volume based and will end when the existing landfill is full or expansion occurs. This is not a guaranteed revenue. Landfill Construction Debris is volume based. The annual revenue varies considerably. Government Building Reserve balance is net of $563,000 for approved 2005 Public Works Master Plan improvements and $200,000 reserved for major building maintenance and repairs. RDF payments not already dedicated elsewhere total approximately $450,000 through the end of the agreement. Pinewood Golf Course Estimated Amortization Schedule per Letter of Intent Dated November 14,2005 Purchase Price Down Payment Principal Annual Interest Term (years) $ 2,400,000.00 500,000.00 1,900,000.00 5.00% 5.0 Beginning Total Principal Interest Principal Annual Year Balance Due Due Payment 1 $ 1,900,000.00 $ 95,000.00 $ 200,000.00 $ 295,000.00 2 1,700,000.00 85,000.00 200,000.00 285,000.00 3 1,500,000.00 75,000.00 200,000.00 275,000.00 4 1,300,000.00 65,000.00 200,000.00 265,000.00 5 1,100,000.00 55,000.00 1,100,000.00 1,155,000.00 $ 375,000.00 $ 1,900,000.00 $ 2,275,000.00 I S:\FINANCE\GolfCourseContract for Deed 12/1/2005