5.1. SR 4-15-2002Raver
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Mayor and Council
FROM:
Pat Klaers, City Administrator
DATE: April 15, 2002
SUBJECT: Consider Feasibility Study for Westbound Liquor Store
Item 5. I.
On January 22, 2002, the City Council authorized Dakota Worldwide Corporation to
complete a feasibility study for a Westbound Liquor Store. This feasibility study is attached
for your review. Mr. Lynn Sage will be at the council meeting to make a presentation on the
study.
The report does not say...yes, the city should build Westbound; or no, the city should not
build a Westbound; or that the city should wait XXX years to build a second liquor store.
What the report does say is that based on a 4,000 sf. sales area store, sales in the first year are
expected at $1.65 million, and the city can expect a decrease in the sales at Northbound by
about $400,000 (page 2). In this manner, the feasibility report provides data for the city to
consider and then leaves it up to the city to decide if, and when, a new store is "worth it" for
the city of Elk River. The figures in the report are very important and if the projections are
off slightly (either for the positive or for the negative) it could make a significant difference
in the final conclusion.
It is appropriate to hear the presentation and ask questions but to defer further
consideration of the study until later in the year, quite possibly until the budget is discussed.
At that time we can discuss how much is needed in sales in order to cover personnel,
operating expenses, building debt, inventory, etc., at a second store and still generate a profit.
We have some financial estimates available for Monday but the agenda is long and the
Council may want to discuss the issue at a future meeting. Once this additional financial data
is considered by the Council, then a decision can be made as to whether or not the city
should proceed forward with a second store.
One item in the report that surprised me was the market area that was used to analyze
potential total sales for the Westbound Liquor Store. Going into the study, I thought that
much more emphasis would have been placed upon the traffic on Highway 10 versus the
market area that was looked at and used as a basis for this report.
Elk River, Minnesota Market Study (CRO002 ~ February 2002) Page 1
Executive Summary
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of opening a second municipal liquor store
in Elk River. One location (Site 1000) was tested at the northwest quadrant of Joplin and U.S.
Highway 10 on the outbound side of the highway on the west side of Elk River.
Site 1000 is currently the center lot of three vacant parcels of land awaiting future commercial
development. There is limited new housing growth occurring just to the north, but this part of
Elk River is less developed than the east side, which also has the prime shopping area of Elk
River. A new Holiday Station store is located at the southeast quadrant of Joplin and U.S.
Highway 10. U.S. Highway 10 is a major arterial between St. Cloud and Metropolitan
Minneapolis-St. Paul. Accessibility to the north and south of the site is possible by the
neighborhood street network. The majority of Elk River's population growth in the 1990's has
occurred on the east side, but some growth is now starting to the north of the site in Sector 10.1.
Physical site characteristics including accessibility, visibility and ingress/egress are rated from.
good to very good. This location, like the existing stores', is in an excellent position to capture
westbound traffic and transient traffic heading west via Highway 10 to "lake country."
Elk River and its surrounding townships and communities constitute one of the fastest growing
areas in the metro area and the state. Its population inci-eased from 11,143 people in 1990 to
16,447 people in 2000 or 4.76% per year. Current increases are projected to be at least 4% per
year for the next several years. Most of this growth will be on the east side in Sector's 7, 8.3 and
9, and in the west in Sector 10.1. The surrounding communities and townships are also
experiencing strong growth, and this trend is also expected to continue for at the next several
years. Overall growth, based on the number of planned developments in the trade area is
projected to be just over 5% for the next several years
Three stores dominate the area's liquor store business, and they are all municipal stores.
Northbound Liquor, one of the better municipal operations in the state, is th.e market share leader
followed by Lake Center Liquor (Big Lake) and Hi-Way Liquor (Monticello). The other 14
stores affect the trade area to a lesser degree, with the best market share of these stores
belonging to Riverview Liquorette because of its location in the center of Ostego.
There are a number of market changes that will affect the trade area. Monticello and St. Francis
are now undergoing major expansions and improvements for their municipal stores and the City of
Rogers is expected to start construction within the next year of a replacement off-sale liquor store
adjacent to the new Super Target. In addition, Riverview Liquor in Ostego may remodel, and
Wiser's Liquor in Ramsey (newly opened) will mature its image in the marketplace. In the next
several years wine sales in Minnesota grocery stores may be allowed and a test is included in this
study to show the effects on the marketplace and Northbound Liquor if this takes place.
Dakota Worldwide Corp.
4801 81a Street, Suite 105 · Minneapolis, MN 55437
Telephone 800.475.4505 · Fax 952.835.4461
Elk River, Minnesota Market Study (CRO002 ~ February 2002) Page 2
In summation, the first year sales for Site 1000 with 4,000 sales area square feet are $1,651,733
or $412.93 per square foot, and grow to $1,868,131 or $467.03 per square foot in the third year
of operation. The existing Northbound Liquor will have sales of $3,558,025 during the stores
first year of operation and increase to $3,938,347 in the third year, nearly the same as its current
sales. Much of the existing stores strength are due to its location in the primary shopping district
in the area and its position near the Elk River's primary growth area.
A profit and loss analysis and break-even pro forma will best determine the feasibility of either site
and optimal size. If not now, Elk River should have sufficient potential in several years if
population growth continues at the expected rate to be able to support a second store.
Map Key 1 Sales $4,000,000 $4,501,222 $3,558,025 $3,224,688
$/SF $888.89 $1,000.27 $790.67 $716.60
Market Share 25.23% 23.33%~ 18.44% 16.71%
Site 1000 Sales $1,651,733 $1,521,956
$/SF N/A N/A $412.93 $380.49
Market Share 9.09% 8.38%
Totals $859,000 $986,432 $5,209,758 $4,746,644
$/SF $917.74 $1,053.88 $612.91 $558,43
Market Share 11.67% 12.72% 27.53% 25.09%
Dakota Worldwide Corp.
4801 81~ Street, Suite 105 · Mixmeapolis, MN 55437
Telephone 800.475.4505 ° Fax 952.835.4461
Elk River, Minnesota Market Study (CRO002 ~ February 2002) Page 3
Market Changes:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Estimated population is growth realized.
Hi-Way Liquor in Monticello upgrades and expands to approximately
6,000 sales area square feet at Map Key 3.
St. Francis Liquor upgrades and expands to approximately 2,200 sales area
square feet at Map Key 8.
Riverview Liquor (Map Key 10) upgrades at its present size.
ROger's Liquor relocates to a new 10,000 square foot facility with 7,100
sales area square feet adjacent to Super Target at Map Key 15.
Wiser's Liquor (open for 6 months) image matures in the market place at
Map Key 16.
A second Northbound Liquor opens with 4,000 sales area square feet
(8,000 total square feet) at Site 1000 on the northwest quadrant of Joplin
and U.S. Highway 10, with market changes in effect.
Grocery wine sales are allowed and wine selections are opened in the
following supermarkets: Coburns at Map Key 100 and Cub Foods at Map
Key 200 in Elk River, Stevens SuperValu at Map Key 300 in Big Lake,
Cub Foods at Map Key 400 and Maus Foods at Map Key 500 in
Monticello, Stevens SuperValu at Map Key 600 and Super Target at Map
Key 1300 in Rogers, County Market at Map Key 700 in St. Francis,
Letourneau's SuperValu at Map Key 800 in Ramsey, Coburn's at Map Key
900 and Freichel's SuperValu at Map Key 1200 in Princeton, and Coburn's
at Map Key 1100 in Albertville.
A second Northbound Liquor opens with 4,000 sales area square feet
(8,000) total square feet) at Site 1000 on the northwest quadrant of Joplin
and U.S. Highway 10, with market changes in effect.
Dakota Worldwide Corp.
4801 81~ Street, Suite 105 · Minneapolis, MN 55437
Telephone 800.475.4505 ° Fax 952.835.4461
Elk River, Minnesota Market Study (CRO002 ~ February 2002) Page 4
Trade Area Delineation
The trade area is defined by natural boundaries, the existing road network and the sites'
relationship to competition. The trade area is located in Sherburne and Hennepin Counties and
extends from County Roads 11 and 75 in the west to Now Then Boulevard in the east, and from
271s' Avenue in the north to the Mississippi River and 60* Street in the south. At its widest
points, the trade area extends 15.6 miles north to south and 18 miles east to west.
Personal checks for purchases the weekend prior to the start of field work were monitored to
assist in the determination of the draw of Northbound Liquor. From the subsequent list it was
determined that approximately 79% of the customers lived with the designated trade area. A
draw of 80 was used in the LOCUSTM 2000 model.
Population/Demographics
Potential
P.C.E.
1990 Census Population
2000 Estimated Population
2002 Estimated Population
2005 Estimated Population
$12,681,701
$217.97
33,904
52,644
58,180
69,356
The current population in the trade area is 58,180 people and the average P.C.E. is $217.97,
ranging from a high of $233.37 in Sector 3 to a low of $209.47 in Sector 12. The total potential
is $12,681,701, and the 17 facilities identified are receiving $9,461,500 or a 74.61% market share.
Total float, which consists of stores located outside the study area, small off-sales areas in bars,
minor facilities and leakage is $3,220,201 or 25.39%.
The 1990 median income for the trade area is $41,966 with an average family size of 3.1 people.
Its demographic makeup is 96.8% white, 0.3% black, 1.2% Hispanic and 0.5% Asian, with 5.7%
under the age of 18, 3.1% over the age of 65, 0.0% college and 0.1% military.
Elk River and its surrounding townships and communities constitute one of the fastest growing
areas in the metro area. Elk River increased its 1990 population from 11,143 people to 16,447
people in 2000 or 4.76% per year. Elk River's current increases are expected to be 4% per year
for at least the next several years. Most of this growth will be on the east side, in Sector's 7, 8.3
and 9, and on the west side in Sector 10.1. In the surrounding communities of Big Lake and
Zimmerman and Ostego, growth has been strong, as well as the surrounding townships. The
entire trade area is projected to increase by more than 5% per year in the next several years.
Dakota Worldwide Corp.
4801 81~ Street, Suite 105 · Minneapolis, MN 55437
Telephone 800.475.4505 · Fax 952.835.4461
Elk River, Minnesota Market Study (CRO002 - February 2002) Page $
Competition
Number of Facilities - Total
Total Trade Area Potential
Facility Sales Within Trade Area
Percent of Sales from Trade Area
Float
17
$12,681,701
$9,461,500
74.61%
$3,220,201
25.39%
Highest Volume Facility
Northbound Liquor (Map Key 1)
Largest Facility
Northbound Liquor (Map Key 1)
$4,000,000
4,50O SF
Sales Per Square Foot - Average - Sales Area
High (Hacks - Map Key 12)
Low (P&A - Map Key 6)
$536.00
SI,200.00
$142.86
Combined, the 17 facilities contain a total of 37,700 square feet with total sales of $20,230,000.
The facilities average 2,218 square feet and $1,190,000 in sales. The average sales per square
foot are $536:60. Northbound Liquor, currently the largest facility in the trade area, is the market
share leader with a 25.23% market share, followed by Lake Center Liquor (Big Lake) with a
10.41% market share and Hi-Way Liquor (Monticello) with a 9.94 % market share. The other 14
stores affect the trade area to a lesser degree, with the best market share of these stores
belonging to Riverview Liquorette (5.24% market share) because of its location in the center of
Ostego.
Dakota Worldwide Corp.
4801 81~ Street, Suite 105 · Minneapolis, MN 55437
Telephone 800.475.4505 · Fax 952.835.4461