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5.6. EDSR 07-14-2008.'"~ ~i City of Elk ~ REQUEST FOR ACTION River To Item Number Ci Council 5.6. Agenda Section Meeting Date Prepared by Administration ul 7, 2008 Lori ohnson, Ci Administrator Item Description Reviewed by Authorize Appraisal for Gateway Business Park Property Reviewed by Action Requested Authorization to hire an appraiser to complete an appraisal of the Gateway Business Park property. Backs rou nd/Discussion For the past several years, the City has been preparing for development of the Gateway Business Park. Most recently, the Council approved a plat for the property that created outlots that can later be re- platted to accommodate the development proposal(s) the Council accepts. Also, a few inquiries have been received from developers and adjoining land owners with interest in purchasing Gateway property or, in the case of the entertainment center, being given property as part of an incentive package. Staff is requesting that the Council authorize the completion of an appraisal on this property to determine its market value. The appraisal data will be necessary whether the property is sold or used as an incentive now or in the future. Completing an appraisal at this time does not in any way mean that the land needs to be sold now; however, it does bring us once step closer to being prepared to entertain offers for development proposals, proceeding with requesting RFP's for the entire parcel, or any other method the Council may want to use to develop the property. Further, as I said, we've received a few inquiries about purchasing portions of the Gateway property. Recently, Scott Powell of Elk River Ford Dodge Jeep submitted a letter expressing his desire to purchase the northern most five acres of Outlot C. To date, we have not received a site plan from Mr. Powell so staff can't comment on how this development fits the Council's goals for Gateway. Obviously, there are many items that need to be considered before the Council decides whether to sell property at this time. Gateway is a very important development area that represents an opportunity to increase the City's future tax base and add livable wage jobs. It's prudent for the Council to wait for the right development proposal before proceeding. There is no rush to develop this property; it is more important to get the maximum tax base and highest quality development possible out of the park. However, that said, we do need to respond to the recent requests to purchase property as they maybe developments that represent what the Council envisions for Gateway. S:\Council\Lori\2008\Appraisal for Gareway.doc The EDA discussed Gateway at a worksession in Apri12007. If the Council concurs, a joint meeting with the EDA could be scheduled for August 11 to revisit some of the issues brought up at the 2007 worksession and to reaffirm the direction staff should take to market and develop the business park. Financial Impact $1,000 for an appraisal to be paid by the development fund. Attachments ^ Memo from Cathy Mehelich, Economic Development Director ^ March 12 and Apri19, 2007, EDA Minutes Action Motion by Second by Vote Follow Up S:\Council\Lori\2008\Appraisal for Gateway.doc Page 14 Commercial Real Estate Guide www.mrej.com r~ Spring 2008 Retail story this year is the survival of the fittest by Nanry Frykman he retail environment has certainly proven the old saying that the only thing constant is change. The economic turbulence of 2007 accelerated the retail market swing guest column from the boom of recent yeazs to a dramatic downturn by yeaz-end. While retail was-and is-the num- ber one casualty of change in our Twin Cities commercial real estate mazket, there is no need to panic. We're encoun- tering rough waters, not a tsunami. Chazles Darwin stated, "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change." Our resilient retail will respond to this challenge in the com- ing yeaz by adapting strategies better suited to success in this new environ- ment. Looking back at 2007, retail was a mixed bag. To the good: Absorption was positive. At six percent, it was a slight improvement "over 2006. Nordstrom made its long awaited announcement to open a second Minnesota store. Both Wal-Mart and Tazget opened new stores and upgraded older stores into bigger and classier formats. Specialty retail cen- ters remained vibrant. The 50th. and France redevelopment attracted upscale retailers Sur la Table and Cos, both new to our mazket. To the bad: The' maid-yeaz sub-prime crash and its domino-effect hit retail with yet more aftershocks projected for this yeaz. Reduction became the byword for all sectors of 2007 retail-reduction in demand for retail space resulted from contraction across the retailer spectrum from nationals to franchisees to locals. Retail follows rnnftnne hnt when hr,,,~_ ing starts screeched to a halt, so did the outer metro expansron. Finally, we saw ongoing reduction in the number of planned retail projects. The main factors contributing to this decline were increased costs-up to 80 additional basis points, rising construc- tion costs, heightened bank underwriting standazds, and high land costs. Ray~isey Town Centre serves as the most glaring example of retail boom gone bust. As we look ahead to the lest of 2008, what opportunities await in our changed retail environment? In order to unlock opportunities, we need to understand the pazadigm shift that occurred last year. Making money has always been the goal over the life of our real estate loan by using Venture Mortgage. ~.- '': - ~, 1 ~-~ i ~ ~, Ridgedale Centers major renovations in 2007 helped it win two major victories when Nordstrom and Trader Joe's picked the property for new locations. of retail, but the "how" has shifted from "Where azen't we, and how fast can we get there?" to "Where can we maximize capital yield?" Retailers' business driv- ers transformed from capturing mazket shaze to maximizing capital yield by increasing selectivity on sites. Adopting strategies centered in cau- tion and creativity will be the key to pur- suing viable deals in our new retail envi- ronment. The ever-resilient retailer will respond in part through increased cau- tion and cazeful relocation. A major example is Wal-Mart's reduction of planned 2008 stores from 280 to 140-a pattern likely to spill into 2009. Retail- ers will relocate or close stores falling short of their profit tazgets and add stores only where cazeful financial modeling predicts a maximisation of capital yield. Macy's and Talbots aze just two of the nationals in store-closing mode. Caution will be the by-word for fran- chisees and local retailers. They face diminished availability of funds due to maxed-out home equity, declining home values, and concern over the economy. These factors put potential franchisee and local retailers into a "wait and see" or "exit the mazket" mode. Stingy expan- lion will be the result. By employing defensive leasing strategies, owners will be able to improve cash flow reduced by rising vacancies. Landlords will offer lessee inducements to stem the bleeding: free or reduced rent and extra TI money. After all, a smaller profit is better than a loss. Finally, developers will approach any new project with increased caution. Lease rates have topped out, so there is less profit and more risk of vacancy than in prior years. Developers need to "think outside the big box" to wring their best yield on capital. Creative retail development opportu- nities await developers who broaden their vision beyond purely retail to a mixed use that justifies hi er land prices. We will see more horizontal mixed use projects in 2008, combining retail with apartments,. hotels. or other higher density uses. Distressed land will be another venue forthe developer. Vertical mixed use will prove a new opportunity arising from construction of light and heavy rail corridors. The North- starrail, slated to open in 200.9 wilLhave Retail to page 19 Nancy Frykman PHOTO: COURTESY GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES Spring 2008 Terra from page 4 company kept its focus. It finished $5 million in projects in 2007 and is on track to surpass the $12 million goal for 2008. Brown says- one azea of _' growth can be in government agencies, where knowledge of the bureaucratic system is vital.. For example, in his career he has worked on projects for the Minnesota State Colleges and Uni- versities. It was a relationship he did- n't want to jeopardize; so he waited until the company reorganization was stabilized, then approached the agency again. "I didn't want to go until I had a story to tell," he says. It's true that the construction cycle lags behind the economy, so next yeaz could be worse than this. The partners aze working hard to stay ahead of that curve., knowing there are no guaran- tees their luck will hold. The lessons from Terra aze textbook ones: know your clients, know your finances, know your strengths; know ' your market. Still reading a case study isn't the same as living it. And there's one measure of success that isn't in the textbooks, Brown says. That's being able to work with tom-~ munities and people he's known all his life. Giving up the.eommute is just a bonus. - "I took my wife to lunch the other. day," Brown says, smiling. "I've never been able to do. that." You can reach Anne Bretts at 952-905-7789 or at abretts@rejournals.com. m Page 19 Rr'tail G~: ^n~-' . - Ret~uler~ will _r.~ p'-~C'~~ tbIDi~_~ in ~l¢ough its nr~~-:ymtrodnced FIE 2 or ~. ~ 'i 6L~ ~ Ph i6 ti i this chvis~dehrn~r~~~ h. hc~,min~i I gheffieien~,:>iorefoiinacItiehtsize n ;~ r c ta[ on nc~ti r~ iw< ~uiTrrunclim~ r r tari~,ir ~rll he , - m i-.~ a ^tiun r-: nrr ~ m a^ (~u rr ~ urg will ~5 ~ he ri IC ci i~ol'to ~ rill I I ] l ~ uLu i fu tti ~ iu~r :~~~ ~ (u~ t nu c ~ m n iirti ~r r ,u;r ua unpro~e cal , ~ ID ~n l ~ hur u l 1 it I _~ t~~ tit >n r~ ~~-ih t nr~~ ~ q t ~ s - urg footprint; r, n. i ._m!r~ , nii. r~>r et,i~c_mrl ~{wck ~ r _~ r~r -< do c~klrrzrrcn~f~ ~w,minin ~ ~~~` peen n r lr r~ r~rr r i ~~I r~ c ] ;n_ rl~r,c[rnt S1 ~ ^~:. tt.~theaReir~ 11~e~. rrr c. luti r n I ~ - ~ r u ~ r~ a., ., 1, I. ut_i ~ l r nc~ ran r~t,ril LlSkhhu}sl=~nl-drr.~1' ainc,etii71 ur.~c Lr mdin aml mue},cun ~ h i ,.~i ~r Jiura~ a L:uJr[U~r,tin s ri~s~it . ~~ffer ararul 5moi~a~hurd, n.rid cor_ I.lti Starhn~}:', dh~ lr...~ ~u{let ~l s ~iip ~m p~,rnt r h.wt_;r gill l _~!he F~_ t wc- n ~s,cttellnt.ac~e ti:mcivisihiht~~.an~I In sales .uxlmcm~ i,i~_ cunt nre; ~~r.~- ~e~~,ti in i~Uti. hr ~h ~~cluel~ 1erda~ ~_unt vnth trr n~, icy, rlan ~„r.~phi~~. Cre ~m upF r*u n~u_s In the ~~ n ts~U n rrnt i r ^I_r, ~, 1 L rv, ~ r ' .ire ..ill Lr toiuid iu distn"ed hin I ~t, ,yell. kill hoi on rh, ~~r ~n ..c~ rt I _EF U ------_ ~; 6 u r nr. f i r ~,.res .>, i Lru.t- tilr~re inti]t .md i t~eveln~i»e[~f kill ccrlilication and C ,~.enuuer,L _u~ hrs G_n ~ r ° ..'.r .,.! l ~ Iui ~ a tf~u;~:: ~,ccurin _'~Ilri ~~ develolren ;i;cehal_ ~ e: ,.tir~nmcn[ ~in;_> tneen ,~r 1 ~.. r 'r~;~;i err, un,l r i r~~~~•,r lrr,:~eu t ~~ ISud dc~ise m~rrr ~iie~ fir "PP ~ - r~ciilcrs. ~ - ~Yul-AI rrt reducr.~ ener_v ~ V. h-,. ~~ ;yucu~~ r ~t i .;E~cice- ~ :ncv r:m pc~ccntu~ent ~~n rn.l ;nE ~~ ~~nrcr:, ;~ rer. i ~rnrr _ n~- ~r u._~_._ Find c~~.,t hew you can promote _ your company.: or property in the C~mrrmercial Heal Estate Guide Partners Tom Brown and Kirk Lau are building Terra General Contractors in Rogers, despite a slow market. lNfO~~~~ ~~ -~ aver MEMORANDUM TO: Economic Development Authority FROM: Catherine Mehelich, Director of Economic Development l DATE: July 14, 2008 SUBJECT: Market Information Articles Attachments • "Market Research -Industrial", Colliers Turley Martin Tucker, First & Second Quarter 2008. • "Market Research -Retail", Colliers Turley Martin Tucker, First & Second Quarter 2008. • "Retail story this year is the survival of the fittest", Commercial Real Estate Guide, Spring 2008. • "Master planning goes retail - An Overview of Market Trends", Ryan Development. • "Fast entry for Sonic; franchisee Border Foods plans 35", Minneapols-St. Paul Business Journal, June 13, 2008. The attached articles are provided to the EDA as market informational items Based on conversations staff has had in the recent months with metro area developers, the reports seem to validate their hesitancy in entering the market, particularly the retail market, with new buildings or large capital projects. That said, as an opportunity for Elk River, one of the articles by Nancy Frykman, second vice president in Retail Sales & Leasing division at Colliers, anticipates some opportunity along the Northstar rail indicating that "the 3-block radius surrounding rail stations will be the location to pursue, particularly for service and quick service concepts." In addition, Ms. Frykman indicates that retailers are likely to pursue development opportunity that includes LEED certification and government credits as a means of cost reduction. While this information indicates a slowing in development activity, at the same time it poses as an opportunity to undertake master planning to position the areas for the desired types of development rather than being in a position of reacting the first proposal (see "Master planning goes retail" article). Also attached is a related article on the anticipated opening of Sonic drive-in restaurant in Elk River. i*.^ ~T1 ,,i, o f ~~w.~;, `+~ ~ * ~~ 1 i ~~ C r} w n i ,Mfih > i 1. ` ~~ _, G MARKET INDICATORS Q108 Q2 OS Actual Estimated VACANCY RATE JI ~ NET ABSORPTION ~ T CONSTRUCTION y T RENTAL RATE -~ ~ SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION ~~~~ Normandale Tech Center Bloomington, MN Size: Ib1,368 SF Seller: First Industrial Buyer: Frauenshuh Inc. Price: $10,337,000 TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER ~~ Commercial Real Estate Services 11~'':r% ~~ ~4 „ iii ~'~ tyr r a ~= t INDUSTRIAL ( FIRST QUARTER ~ 20Q8 March Madness Onii.nous signs ctrntinue, as tl~e new year ltas atarted off ort a slow note Eor the 'Iivin Cities industrial market. !Absorption is nenative, for the first ii~.iarter. TI~>e number of spaces on the market: that are vacant, and the size of~ those spaces, are increasing. The askin~~ prices for bttddings tan die market for sale ate coming down, and manufacturing continues to have. negative. jot: growth. hirst let's Iook at the increasing amounts of space drat are becoming available. In ?006 d~>ere were fewer than 500 s}?aces available ~~ith less than 40,000 ~T ivailable in coral. There were just over 150 between 40,000 and 100,000 tiH and (i5 spaces over 100,000 S1= metro wide. 1~ast forward two years. 'The s>nall user space is up by L3°./~, the tuediu~m urcr apsice is up by 7.0%> and the large user apace is up by a ~~hopping 45°,'0. An en erging trend to keep an eye on in tl~>e near future is the dedii~le of uidustrial sale prices. In the past 12 months about IO°/v of YEAR <40,000 40,000 - 100,000 >100,000 2006 497 153 65 2007 533 160 67 2008 564 169 94 rl-lose properties listed for sale have ch-op}?ed their asking price; Iiy an average of 1~°,%, with sonic even dropping it over 50°4~. This could be an indicator of things to conic, as financing gets harder co conic by and some owners ~~rill need to sell. 'I'lu number of matiufactt.iring jobs in t:he Twin Cities continues to decline. There has been negakive year-over-year job growth fiir the past: 1.5 month.. $ut: on the plus side, there are two subsets of manufacturin~~ that have. had. positive, albeit small, growth recently. They are electronic instnimentation and medical device ma nu facto ring. J M 5 J M S J M S J M S J M S; J M S J M S J M 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 .... ~ S>i~. .~:a;ctr rn. .I i.; 'Vlore trotll~ling news for d t: hivh-tech in,unr factui in,, area carne out in arid-A,'Carch. In the saiue week that die state announced exports fen the fourd quarter of 200 i were at a re- t:ord High, bout 31v1 and Medtronic dampened the mood. 3~~i announced dle5~ will be mov, ing die optical systems ;livisioli from their .'Ylaplewood huadgLrarters to f~fong Kong. -I'he nest day' Medtronic anilotlnced it would be t-acting n~ianut~LCr.urin~ rests by 25`% over rlle nest ft~e years and shift tuanui<ICturiu~; jc)bs t0 .~1(: XLCO. One developnu_nt kxrking to take advantage o~l~ the growth L~f the rued-tech sector is the newly alli10Ur1Ced ~IiS.nf'SOta liinov~a tlOn Center. 'This development will be a rese,lrch and teclL- nolo;y park located near the L?niversiry cif >vdinnt sofa. The first phase of rile develt7pmer.it will be ?51,000 S~' on ll acres, with ultimate goal of 1.6 million SI= on 65 acres. Tile first quarter re~~istered ne calve absc)rp- tion of 83,071 S1~ market wide. 'l~he submit bets on die East side of the metro performed in the pt:)sitive ft~r the first tluarter, wl ile the West metro was in the negative. One third of the absorption in the. St Paul/l~ortlieast market c:a.rl lx: attributed to Tul)e Teehrn~lc~~,ies moving inl:o hiver Road Industrial Center, the state's large st industrial building. ~X~hen viewing the absorption data by pre>duct type, bulk evarelu}use is the. leader, register- Ln~ yt),~73 tit Of al:)SirptiOCl I.I"I dle iltlal'ter. Varaitcv fell from Lf.B°./o to 17.6%. Office warehouse «Tas relati~-ely flat with a positive 110,655 y}~, V;ac:a.neyro~r_ slightly froriL 8.St'.~o to 8.C)°,'o, 1)ut this is due to the 35j13 Crossings, a new '180,000 SF ilevclopinent in Burnsville. i7ffice showrtx)rn was flit, the hardest witl~l a -, r--;q negativu<.{hsorpt)orl of 7~ ~~, `!h. ~arancy~~l~c~r office, sh~wruonl space climbed from I~.O°.io to 1.3.3`% Ch-era11 vir,ancy for the rnxrket climbed from 1 LO°,t~ to 1 l.?%_ Tenants cY:)ndnue tc) give feedback tl~l~it rlley are facing uncert~liit times with respect to their busint .s environment and theref~~re are look- ing for shorter term sohrtions to meet their real estate needs. 1~hi, has resuh:ed in many shorter than normal renewals of leases in t'he marketplace. Scott County 13.8% Southwest Sector 10.5% Anoka County -.6% St. Paul 7.5% Twin Cities Metro _6.4% Washington Metro 6.1 % Minneapolis i.4% Dakota County 3.3% Northeast Sector 3.3% Northwest Sector 3.3% PROPERTY NAME CITY, STATE $/SF YEAR BUILT Northdale Construction Co Facility Rogers, MN $360 1985 13931 Sunfish Lake Blvd NW Ramsey, MN $67 1995 Shady Oak IV Eden Prairie, MN $64 1984 Normandale Tech Center Bloomington, MN $64 1980 Park Industrial Village Plymouth, MN $58 1979 Kasota Industrial Portfolio Minneapolis, MN $55 1976-77 522 19th St SW Forest Lake, MN $55 1991 Southpoint Crossings Business Park Bloomington, MN $48 1978 5401 Smetana Dr Minnetonka, MN $48 1977 1507 E Franklin Ave Minneapolis, MN $44 1946 9702 Newton Ave S Bloomington, MN $42 1974 World Wide Distribution Center Bloomington, MN $35 1965 PROPERTY NAME TENANT CITY, STATE SF 13201 Wilfred Lane N Walgreens Rogers, MN 335,674 Wickes Distribution Center Wagner Spray Tech Brooklyn Center, MN 116,000 River Road Industrial Center Tube Technologies Fridley, MN 64,121 Minneapolis Business Center Pinta Foamtec Minneapolis, MN 48,208 Moundsview Business Park A Empirehouse Mounds View, MN 32,719 Minneapolis Business Center G&K Services Minneapolis, MN 32,314 Nathan 54 Commerce Label Plymouth, MN 22,036 ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ 1...~ ..~ _. I~ Q I Q2 Q3 Q4 Qi Q2 Q3 Q4 Q I Q2 Q3 Q4 Q I Q2 Q3 Q4 Q I 2004 2005 2006 2007 ..2008 ^ VACANCY RATE VACANCY SECTOR INVENTORY NET ABSORPTION CHANGE Q4/07 QI/08 Anoka County 8,266,441 90,244 12.5% 11.4% -I.I% Dakota County 14,524,578 3,528 13.3% 14.3% I.0% Minneapolis 13,012,313 60.941 8.3% 7.8 % -0.5% Northeast Sector 10,891,012 79,219 9.4% 8.7% -0.7% Northwest Sector 28,763,695 -106,376 10.2% 10.6% 0.4% Scott County 3,499,106 -34,961 18.5% 19.5% I.0% St. Paul 10,212,129 38,263 8.9% 8.6% -0.3% Southwest Sector 24,752,659 -239,049 12.1% 13.1% I.0% Washington County 2.885,898 25,120 8.4% 7.5% -0.9% Twin Cities Metro 116,807,831 -83,071 11.09 11.29 0.29 UNITED STATES Minneapolis/St. Paul Colliers Turley Martin Tucker 200 South Sixth Street Suite 1400 Minneapolis, MN 55402 Tel: 612-341-4444 Fax: 612-347-9389 Researcher's information: Jim Mayland Email: jmayland@ctmt.com Tel: 612-347-93 This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.ctmt.com. This is a research document of Colliers Turley Martin Tucker- Minneapolis/St. Paul. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 612-347-9311. Informa- tion contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers Turley Martin Tucker is an independently owned and operated business and a member firm of Colliers Inzernacional Property Consultants, an affiliation of independent companies with over 240 offices throughout more than 50 countries worldwide. TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER Commercial Real Estate Services www.ctmt.com CONTACT INFORMATION lta MARKET INDICATORS Q2 08 Q3 08 Actual Estimated VACANCY RATE T ~ NET ABSORPTION ~ JI CONSTRUCTION ~ ~ RENTAL RATE ~ -~ SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION 41 I Farwell Avenue South St. Paul, MN Landlord: Blue Dog Properties Trust Lessee: Sportsman's Guide Size: 422,727 SF TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER Commercial Real Estate Services INDUSTRIAL ~ SECOND QUARTER ~ 2008 Economy Stymies Industrial Market The Twin Cities Indttstri;al market experienced a slow second quarter with negative absorp- tian of 300,405 square. feet (SF}. The overall va- t ani:y fc}r rite market rose sli;~lltly front 11..0`io to 11.4°/v. Most Markets registered negative absorption, with the Northwest leading the way with a neg- ative 1'0,915 SF, raisin;; vacancy from 10.5°h to 1.1.1°.%. 1.T)kota C;oxuxty led the way wit11 positive absorption of 185,2.59 SI~, lolveting the vacancy in the subntarket to 13.1°io. 1 he etnplaylrletlC and Ut1en11)layment 11ttn1berS recently released for May reflect continued. i:hallenges for the metro area. The unemploy- tnetlt figures for the state followed the national trend. In the state, unemployment jumps from 4.8"% in April ro 5.4cio in May, while nationally the rate climbed from 5.0%v to 5.5%. "This is the highe.~t the state unetrtployment has been sini:e November of 1991 and r11e largest one month jump since July of ;198'. Manxttaeturing jobs continue to suffer as ~+~ell, as Twin Citii:, tna.nt.tfacrurin.g lost 400 jobs dipping below '00,000 for the second time in six months. The slow ei:onotny appr.;ars to late t11e key driver in manv of the observations for t:he industrial r ,_ ~, ~ .. w 6:'.~ 4 'y56.60 ry v s gait.00 '. I. a '' $3G.6C . '- $20.06 ~It7.QG ~n.oa Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 market. l)ne of the rnosr notable is the sllift from a typical itve year term an leases dropping dawn to three years. Tenants are. requesting a tllrre year option ~vltetx renewing anc{ evaluating lease proposals. Landlords want the Longer deal, but sametimes they have acquiesced to kec p ac- cupancy hig11. Scott County 13.8% Southwest Sector i 0.5% St. Paul -Northeast 7.2% Twin Cities Metro ~ 6.7% Washington County 6.1% Dakota County 4.T~ Minneapolis 4.3% Northwest Sector 3.5% <,~rirce i.?;fliers t_'nless there has been a dramatic shift in their business, many tenants are rlectin;~ to renew in t lelT Cltrretlt lacatlan. It IS caster tOY [e11a I1t:S t0 remain than to ext_xcrience tllc unknolvn in re- locating i)r {nc'rrasinf; space until the economic out:lactk becomes more stable. Ani)ther inclicaror that reflects the srntgglin; economy is the reduction in asking sale price per square foot for industrial buildings an the market. During rite booming times of 2006 and early 2007, ~ ~ ,king prices rose steadily. But in the Q2 2008 tx ~ ~~ last sip ntonths the av-eraaF x:1<.ing }?rit:e has While there ha.~ been a redtu-tion in dae as.rr- Fueling tnruai of the uncertain ecG:xun~nic ezt- dropi~~ed trove *(ii.30 to $~6.~1-over 2~°,/0. age asking prices tier sale properties, the same virt~nment is the riitrg price of gasoline. No~~ The market for owner-user ~buildint~s has also is not true for leasin;. Average asking rates that gas is over $4.00 a gallon and diesel is ap- slwnl>ed. have renrained relatitie.ly steady for the past proackt.utg ~5.Oi?, are the third or tourtlt ring live quarters, suburbs too lar out' The implications of a sustained price reduc- ttOri itlt 1)Otb VVayS. If y'(`~ll aTe 1851 r1g TO(l:d.y anfl want to buy, you may be able to tower your cost of occup<<ncy. Interest rates and loan terms for ov.~ner oaa.xpird properties are still attractive. PROPERTY NAME CITY, STATE $/SF YEAR BUILT If you are selling your properly, or your proper- 21881 Grenada Avenue Lakeville, MN $110 2005 ty and business cotubined, this will hurt your Advantek Building Hopkins, MN $62 1992 vabiatic>n. Sizuilarly, if you bought Gvhezt prices 84 Lumber Company Hugo, MN $56 2002 were higher, leveraged uf? to 7.5-i3Q°lo and now 2500 Walnut St Saint Paul, MN $49 1964 need to refinance, you tnay be required. to 9231 Penn Ave Minneapolis, MN $22 1967 1)rutg CASK t0 the CaOSltt~g. ~~:~,~ =iG rr; $5.03 ,, .:~r.~'' $4.58 $4':90 $4.64 $4.65 -- $4.54 $4:55.. $4.42 $4:44 $4.38 ~~ ~ __ ~~. $4.32 $416. ~~ ~", $3.97 $3.90 $3.90 °_: ~ ~ Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 S_,,~~~. ~ ~~;~-~~ PROPERTY NAME TENANT CITY, STATE SF Wickes Distribution Center ILS Brooklyn Center, MN 87,000 Louisiana Distribution Center Innoflex Corporation New Hope, MN 72,731 Evergreen Industrial Building 9 Active Sports Inc. Shoreview, MN 53,400 Broadway Business Center VI Hallmark Building Supplies, Inc. Minneapolis, MN 46,059 Park West Industrial Center Insignia Brooklyn Park, MN 40,781 Louisiana Distribution Center Kudzu Enterprises New Hope, MN 32,417 640 Taft St NE Absolute Distribution, Inc. Minneapolis, MN 21,600 Sedgwick Building Sedgwick Heating & Air Conditioning Bloomington, MN 19,915 1 ^ ' ~ ~ ^ ,, -_ QI Q2 Q3 Q4 QI Q2 Q3 Q4 QI Q2 Q3 Q4 QI; Q2 Q3 Q4: QI Q2 2004 2005 2006 2007 200$ ~ Absorption Vacancy Rate ti,,,, i SECTOR INVENTORY NET ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE VACANCY QI/08 Q2/08 CHANGE Dakota County 14,524,665 185,259 14.3% 13.1% -1.2% Minneapolis 13,071,618 -94,029 7.7% 8.4% 0.7% Northwest Sector 28,741,133 -120,915 10.5% II.I% 0.6% Scott County 3,499,106 17,758 14.9% 14.4% -0.5% St. Paul/Northeast 29.385,703 -92,596 9.3% 9.7% 0.4% Southwest Sector 24,874,446 -99,345 13.4% 13.8% 0.4% Washington County 3,062,954 -96,537 7.1% 10.2% 3.1% Twin Cities Metro 117,159,625 -300,405 11.0% 11.4% 0.3% ' ;' .,,., ~r~ ~, NORTHWEST 1 I ~\\~ ST`PAUL./ I z ~~ NORTHEAST o i ''N 3 ! 169 ~~ /rj --L---- r~ N /~ / - ~ ~ 4j, r '3 `,, ~_i, 11 ~ WASIiINC,ION ~`- ~~- COUNTY ' i t, ~~'~' ivmua I ~1 I i {i 4a _I ~i al ~ ~'l wi MINNrneous I Y, i~ ~yia q ~r 4. SOUI~HW E57 ~ _ `" / _~ r ~ (~ _ _ r_ ~ ~yr : I ~' -, r ._ ~'~V( UNITED STATES Minneapolis/St. Paul Colliers Turley Martin Tucker 200 South Sixth Street Suite 1400 Minneapolis, MN 55402 Tel: 612-341-4444 Fax: 612-347-9389 Researcher's information: Jim Mayland Email: jmayland@ctmt.com Tel: 612-347-9311 This report and other research materials maybe found on our website at www.ctmt.com. This is a research document of Colliers Turley Martin Tucker -Minneapolis/St. Paul. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 612-347-9311. Informa- tion contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers Turley Martin Tucker is an independently owned and operated business and a member firm of Colliers International Property Consulwnts, an xtfiliaxion of independent companies with over 240 offices throughout more than 50 countries worldwide. TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER ~. co ~ rr ,~ eout~Tr ~=___ ~`~~~~ Commercial Real Estate Services s55 ~ www.ctmt.com CONTACT INFORMATION `~ ~, n~ r,H ,~~ ,~- ` ~'~ ~y , '~ 4' M.~ . , t r,~ ~ _~ -..A -~~ ~~~. - ter., ~~ *~a ~~ -.«.~e~ .~... f°IARKET INDICATORS Q I O8 Q2 08 Actual Estimated VACANCY RATE ~ T NET ABSORPTION ~ CONSTRUCTION ~ ~ RENTAL RATE ~ y SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER Ii~LJdEuuu~ll~fi111~1a Commercial Real Estate Services RETAIL. ~ FiRST QUARTER Retailers Apply The Brakes It is oft to a flat start for retail in 2008. V;-ic<tni:y for retail held steady in t:he first quarter at o~ 53 ,~r vacant market ~~-ic e. One: area of concern for retail is the restaurant business, wltii:h has xc°_n ut tare in t to past yc~.ar or so. Another area- of concern for many is the continued. health oY retail in downtown Minneapolis. But not all the news is bad, a, some area malls hate been able to attract new tenants and revitalize themselves. Retail is often the most affected discipline in contntercial real estate when the ecortotny comes on hard tunes. One spccif~ic area. of re- tail that is affected is the resrauranr business. It has 1ae:en esrunared that. dinner traffic has fallen by 2°.~o in the past year. When times bet tou5h, people just don't go out to eat as much. In fact, in .a rec:errt sutvey condu;aed l>y the Nationa.lResrauratu Association, 49% of res- taurants say their sane-store sale, fell. Here is an example of just a few national restaurants' fourth quarter fi ;ores: • Ruby Ttaesday's sales phtnuuetcd 10.8°'0 • Fatuous Dave'. dipped b.8`o ?008 W Hotel Aloft Hotel Minneapolis Hotel Hilton Garden Inn ' Applebee's dropped 29°~i, • Chili's was ilo4~-n 2.4`h • Vt%endy's declined 0.8°4, • Cheesecake Factory dipped. 0.4"~, On the plus side: • McDanald's recorded an increase of 0.3`;%. • liuft<tlo lUlil VGlitt;tts franclu:,es rose 3.044. * I~uffalo V(-'ild ~Y~in~s Grill & 13ar corporate Mores climbed 7.0°~0 ^I'hc health and vitality of downtown Minneapolis' retail has surfaced as a con- cern ti>r those wlto live artil work. downtown. Ker_enlly the Ivlirmeapolis I7o~~%ntown Council brought in a consu.lrant to evaluate the retail environment. VACANCY RATE VACANCY SECTOR INVENTORY NET ABSORPTION CHANGE Q4/07 QI/08 Anoka County 8,414,054 21,246 4.8% 4.5% -0.3% Dakota County 8,546,847 -24,446 4.6% 4.9% 0.3% Minneapolis 3,986,521 -57,905 7.0% 8.4% 1.4% Northeast Sector 7,373,080 14,961 6.3% 6.1% -0.2% Northwest Sector 9,696,023 -11,301 7.1% 7.3% 0.2% St. Paul 2,760,901 -17,789 4.7% 5.4% 0.7% Scott County 2,088,975 4,954 8.3% 8.1 % -0.2% Southwest Sector 12,195,848 82,298 5.4% 4.7% -0.7% Washington County 4,785,609 41,240 5.2% 4.3% -0.9% West Sector 7,283,982 4,884 2.8% 2.7% -0.1% Twin Cities Metro 67,131,840 58,142 5.4% 5.3% -0.1% 9450 Dunkirk Lane North Seller: Target Corporation Buyer: Dunkirk Lane Maple Grove LLC Size: 135,132 SF Price: $9,500,000 yoaru~ of the k~4 as;rts that: cn-ere toun<1 is t:ltat downtuwn has a unique mix of anchor stures fora (:13D vritlt Neiraiact itil:arcats, Maet s, C)ff nth ~:~aks), and I<trrc,t there a, also a trop± presence ofsuCCe~slitI independent opcxators. hi.rtally there is a. strc:mg office: and visitor popcr lotion that comes t:o downtown Minneapolis. Sonu~ of the short comintis identified by the ron2rltan.twere the divtsx.>n betwertt the sky- 4vay sy>tctn and the strec^t Icvcl retail, the tran- sit onlti traffic on Nicollet t~-4all, low density of residc:rats, and laelhaster sales. In light of this information, there are sev~:ral c>p- r~x~rtuztiti.es fc~r retail downti~wn. The first step the council took was to hire Ann Winmrer as the director of retail recruitment dcnvntown. Her ralti.mate ooa] is to attract loe~al, rr~ional, and national tenania to downrown. "I'he in- creased nuniher of boutique hotels «~i11 he.Ip attract more evening arad weekend do~~%rtto~~~n to tE~Eic, and the new °l~wurs Stadium in the North Loop :~~i11 also help when it opens. in 2010. ~1'ltere arc still ;a few coruerns that: linger xhen people think of downto«~n retail. There is the cost of parkirrg, and the lrerceJ:>tiota of safety. I~~he varietz~ of ~rores is not: as cou~plete a, other areas, and tl~tere aren't as many unique stores that require sotarec>ru: to conre down.toct,n. To the positive, Wrote transit: lines coming int<~ downtown will help make the trip easier. Tl~t.e Nc~rthstar lute is .et to open in 2009, tl~ae t_:entral t:,~art-idor in ?0'14, and a. Southwest line in 2017. 5orrae area malls have been quite succeasEul recently in drawing new tenants to them. Rosedaic: recently antrourtc:ed tla,rt i.t: will ha~rc. six new stores touting thts spring;. `Whey include: • Rocco Altol:>elli tialon Sc Day tipa • Flame Cocaking 1X1ith Fire 1estaurant • C.). E3anks • y~'hite Nou•ae. Mack. Marker • J. Carew • Sephora The. ~^fall of <~rnerica ~~'ill Ue adding nine ne~v .tore+ in 2408. • l~c:st:l3u~~ • Lacostc^ • L.e4~i's • Kuehl • Gilly Hicl..~ tiydnep • Caeox • lank and Jack • Papyrus sr,;atiottary • Pandora Jewelry • Nickelodeon l~niverse -the new arnusrn ent park rcpt acirt~ l amp snoopy PROPERTY NAME TENANT A look ar the nutubers for retail far tlac first quarter reflect 58,142 SF. Comnttmiry Centers were thc~ 1>c:.t pertt:arntc rs witl; 87,792 Sl~ of ab.. sorption and ~-acanc}~ fell from 3.5`%, to ~9`?0- Regional CentC'rs had. absorption of 11,423 SF arul vacancy remaiaaed ;a r. 5.3°./0. Neiglal>orktood Centers came in with a ntgativc 33,18 Sh,lifr- ingvacancy from 6.2%a to 6.3°~. Minneapolis ~;13D ~.parti~ recorded sr negar,ive 1;,875 SF and vacancy rose from 16.6°%o to li.~~°4,. CITY, STATE SF Central & University North Memorial Health Care Minneapolis, MN 6,158 The Shopper of Woodbury Village American Burger Restaurant Woodbury, MN 2,622 Starlite Shopping Center Midwest Cellular Brooklyn Park, MN 1,447 Anderson Lakes Shopping Center Yoga Prairie Eden Prairie, MN 1,200 U.S. Bank Center Patricia's Altering & Tailoring St. Paul, MN 793 The Shopper of Woodbury Village Liberty Tax Woodbury, MN 693 PROPERTY NAME CITY, STATE $!SF YEAR BUILT Victor Marketplace Hugo, MN $169 2006 North Star International Minneapolis, MN $106 1971 1900 Tower Drive West Stillwater, MN $104 NIA 9450 Dunkirk Lane North Maple Grove, MN $70 1998 800 West Broadway Avenue Minneapolis, MN $62 1925 a; i U -:; ;)°<. -1~<, -~~° j(}°.; J M 5 J M S -J M S) M S J M S) M S J M S J M S J zooo mot zooz zoos zoo4 zoos zoos zooz oa f) i~ 2004 ^ 2005 2006 2007 Q 12008 UNITED STATES Minneapolis/St. Paul Colliers Turley Martin Tucker 200 South Sixth Street Suite 1400 Minneapolis, MN 55402 Tel: 612-341-4444 Fax: 612-347-9389 Researcher's information: Jim Mayland Email: jmayland@ctmt.com Tel: 612-347-93 I I This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.ctmccom. This is a research document of Colliers Turley Martin Tucker - Minneapolis(St. Paul. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 612-347-9311. Informa- tion contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Colliers Turley Martin Tucker is an independently owned and operated business and a member firm of Colliers International Property Consultants, an affiliation of independent companies with over 240 offices throughout more than 50 countries worldwide. TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER Commercial Real Estate Services www.ctmt.com CONTACT INFORMATION I'' ~ ' - ~' ~,~ xis ;. ~~.~. w ~~ MARKET INDICATORS Q2 08 Q3 08 Actual Estimated VACANCY RATE ~ T NET ABSORPTION ~ ~ CONSTRUCTION y ~ RENTAL RATE ~ y SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTION ((~~1~ u.# At. f , • ~, .- .~ _a ~ Savage Town Square Savage, M N Seller: Prudential Buyer: Wanguard Advisors Size: 87,181 SF Price PSF: $I61 TURLEY MARTIN TUCKER RETAIL ~ SECOND QUARTER Zoos All Gassed Up ~tlhat ina}Y<ti t sloes tl:te price of gas tlltitnately have on t:he retail industry' !~~ lot! AAA re- ported in the month of Jane that. the national average for the price of gas has finally ltit over $4.00 pt:r gallon. Tl~te average Twin Cities c:omnntter travels 22 miles to work and hack. Multiply that by 2.50 work days and you end up with 5,500 miles per year in contnturing alone. If you factor in other personal trips the average commuter drives 12,000 mile, in a given year. Ntxt factor in your vehicle. if you drive a 1-~Iummer H2 then your gas mileage is less than lb miles per gallon (MPt"_~); if you drive a Toyota Pries your gas mileage is rated ai: average 48 mpg. The. average gas mileage far a car in the Lnited Stares is 17 ntpg. This means the aver- age cansunrer tast:s just over 700 gallons of gas per year. `The }?rice ofgas has risen X1.00 a gallon, of 33°%, since. 2007 according to AAA, whidt means the average cansunte'r hay had an increase in their gas bill of X700 ~.nnually. T'Ite average Twvi Cities resident earns ~+4i,500 pre-t:ax, or about $35,000 after tax. I~he $700 increase i, about. 2°l0 of the take home money of tlt.e ,average en r>l.oyee. 13th when you factor in hottsin;~ costs, f~>od casts, and ocher- living expenses, the average employee only has ~2,k)0 for discretionary spending and~c:m savings. One- t:hird of these discretionary dollars arc gone with the $1.00 increase in gas. Individuals must figure cnar the trade-offs. Some options include:: • L..ess or no savings • Reduction in discretionary spending for restaurants, entertainment, clothes, vaca- tions, etc. • elect: to repair instead of replace older, worn out appliances and vehicles • Defer projects like borne rentodeliug and ltnclscaping Now let's look at these numbers on a macro level. ~I'hcre .are 1.F million employees in the Twin Citie, metro area. According to the. Metropolitan Council, 7S`%o of employees drive MILES PER GAl1. i)N 10 15 17 20 2S 30 40 48 5 775 517 456 388 310 258 194 161 F. r. 10 900 600 529 ' 450 360 300 225 188 `~ 15 1025 683 603 513 410 342 256 214 20 1150 767 676 ~~~~ ~, 575 460 383 288 240 ;; 22 1200 $00 706 600 s 480 400 300 250 ;; 25 1275 850 750 638 510 425 319 266 ~y' 30 1400 933 824 700 560 467 350 292 35 1525 1017 897 763 610 508 381 318 40 1650 1100 971 825 660 550 413 344 Senn ae Cni(;e;. Commercial Real Estate Services thc~ntsrlves to work and another 10°~o carpool.. That mcanv the $700 increase will affect 1.5 millionpeople in. doe twin. Cittes, or shift over 51,054,000,000 to has instead of oilier retail. To put this in perspective, Cub Foods had. an cstiutated ~1,0~4,8t~0,000 in ,des last year. In otl~ter words, all sales from (_-ub Foods would. go a~=; at rc, coniprns:rte for the X1.00 tncrease itt gas. t ?r to i:?ur it another way Lrrgel'S atuutal revenue. iu 200 ( was 5(i3, {6 (,000,000 and if you average that over their 1,59] ;tones you get just under $40 million dollars in revenue per st<}rc, or wiping out Zfi of the 52 Target stores in the metro area. The small shop user can be l~tit even harder. Accordim.; to Dollars and Cents for Sltopphlg Centers the average retailer grosses ~+_'S0 per square foot. Eliminating over a billion dollars in revenue would take away 4.2 rttilbota Sh of retail space. Lhat would more than double the rr:ntil vacancy in the Twin Cities. Ilot calct.tlat:ed in this figure is the multiplier effect. It is estimated that each dollar s~~eiit on retail generates X0.57 in additional econonuc aa:ivit:y. -That works ont to lie a multiplier of around 2.3, so the. overall impact is more than just the billion dollats. ~'~1ltile these numbers may seem 1ar~e and alarming, they only tacxor-in working driviti; adults. If you factor ul the non working drivt~~rs like spouses, students, retired persons, ur the unenti?loyed, Chew numbers would increase and be nior~-dratnatic. This analysis does not t~+cus cot outer rapidly ris- ing priced items such as food. Food w•c cannot live without, bur can adjust our spending robe store value conscious. Regardless, food. prices are escalating touch faster Chan wage increases, putting additional pressure on discretionary spending. ~~'here does this leave. t:hr° average consunu r' It leaves dtertrpondering Che question, where dc,e_s trty ~; 00 i:onte from.' Where does rltis leave the metro retail real estate market? -I-here will be a Callout of tale weakest retailers and a drop in sales that rely on di,ct tionary =_>endin,:Y. Fot- shopping center owners, the data .ubgesls staying close to your tenants and supporting them. It reinttrcx:s wb.at we have been seeitt}; .and saying about: retatlers approaching expan- sion and growth with extreme cauC,ion. "I'hc "l win Cities retail tirarket experienced nega- tive absorption for the second quarter c~ 2008 with 46,22; S'f^. Vacancy remainx:dunchanged at S. j{r,-, All but three submarhets had n..tarive absorp- tion, with the lamest being Anoka county with a negative 35,99 % tiF~. Tl e West h;ad the most absorption wii:h 26,433 SF and vacancy remained the lowest with 2.3°io. Scott County has the highest vacancy ar 81'%x. NET VACANCY RATE VACANCY SECTOR INVENTORY ABSORPTION Q4/07 QI/08 CHANGE Anoka County 8,414,054 -35,997 4.5% 5.0% 0.5% Dakota County 8,546,847 14,116 4.9% 4.7% -0.2% Minneapolis 3,986,521 -3,946 6.6% 6.7% 0.1% Northeast Sector 7,373,080 -30,904 6.1% 6.5% 0.4% Northwest Sector 9,696,023 5,323 7.3% 7.2% -0.1% St. Paul 2,760,901 -11,174 5.4% 5.8% 0.4% Scott County 2,088,975 -350 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% Southwest Sector 12,195,848 -9,426 4.9% 5.0% 0.1 Washington County 4,785,609 -302 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% West Sector 7,283,982 26,433 2.7% 2.3% -0.4% Twin Cities Metro 67,131,840 -46,227 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% PROPERTY NAME TENANT CITY, STATE SF Woodbury Village Green Gold's Gym Woodbury, MN 39,520 University IV Empire Education Spring Lake Park, MN 9,089 Ramsey Commons Shopping Center US Bank National Association Ramsey, MN 3,200 Advanced Auto Savage Retail Midwest Cellular Savage, MN 2,800 Tamarack Square Midwest Cellular Fergus Falls, MN 2,460 Shingle Creek Center Midwest Cellular Brooklyn Center, MN 2,100 Cobblestone Lake Midwest Cellular Apple Valley, MN 1,854 Rosedale Square Shopping Center Zpizza Roseville, MN 1,680 ~; ~, ~ C PROPERTY NAME CITY, STATE $/SF YEAR BUILT Walgreens Minneapolis, MN $329 1997 CVS Farmington, MN $299 2007 Village on the Ponds Chanhassen, MN $205 1999 Savage Town Square Burnsville, MN $161 2003 LA Fitness Site St. Louis Park, MN $154 1979 Humboldt Square Shopping Ctr Minneapolis, MN $96 1973 401 1st Ave N Minneapolis, MN $72 1914 , ~, ; ,~ I~ 1= ~G ~ ~ -i 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q2 2008 ^ :,,, UNITED STATES Minneapolis/St. Paul Colliers Turley Martin Tucker 200 South Sixth Street Suite 1400 Minneapolis, MN 55402 Tel: 612-341-4444 Fax: 612-347-9389 Researcher's information: Jim Mayland Email: jmayland@ctmt.com Tel: 612-347-93 This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.ctmt.com. This is a research document of Colliers Turley Martin Tucker- MinneapolislSt. Paul. Questions related [o information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 612-347-931 I. Informa- tion contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuraq thereof. Colliers Turley Martin Tucker is an independently owned and operated business and a member firm of Colliers International Property Consultants, an affiliation o/independent companies with over 240 offices throughout more than 50 countries worldwide. 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