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ERMUSR MISC 02-20-2007Elk River Municipal Utilities 13069 Orono Parkway Elk River, MN 55330 February 12, 2007 To: Elk River Municipal Utilities Commission Jerry Takle Jim Tralle Jerry Gumphrey From: Bryan Adams Subject: Miscellaneous Issues phone: 763.441.2020 Fax: 763.441.8099 Enclosed is the packet for Tuesday, February 20, 2007 commission meeting at 4:00 p.m. Northstar Access has finally installed a wireless internet modem in Jim Tralles' residence as part of their study to verify the technology and how applicable it is for Elk River. I would ask Jim to update us on the success of this wireless internet study. The City of Elk River is planning two street reconstruction projects this year. They are the Deerfield 3~d Addition and Irving Ave. area. See the attached drawing reflecting the scope of these projects. The Deerfield project will have no effect on the water department and minimal impact on the electric department. Unfortunately the Irving Ave. project is a different story. If the alley is reconstructed between 8t" St. and 5`'' St., this will have a major impact on all small utilities (cable t.v., phone, electric) because this alley contains all of the major feeder lines that must be relocated. Originally we were only going to replace the water mains on 6`" St., 7~' St. and Gates Ave. loop at a cost of approximately $100,000. The City is suggesting that all of the fire hydrants be brought up to current models and spacing. Also, because St. Andrews Catholic Church facility is expanding, the water main on Irving Ave. south of St" St. should be increased from 4" to 8". The water main project is now in the $300,000's. We need to have a discussion at the commission meeting about the scope of this project and potential ways to pay for it. Enclosed is the following information for your review and hopefully your reading enjoyment. 1) Letter from W.H. International Response Center informing us that we have exceeded 500 security accounts. The decreased cost reflects a $3000/year savings in monitoring cost. Richard Schaust continues to do a great job in selling and installing security systems. 2) January 2007 Connexus newsletter informing their customer of no retail rate changes in 2007. As you recall, we had to raise ours by 6%. 3) 2006 population and building statistics authored by Sherburne County. Elk Rivers estimated population is 23,125. 4) January 26, 2007 issue of The Kiplinger Letter addressing "F,lectric Blues." 5) January 2007 issue of AWWA Access addresses from a water perspective, "As The World Warms." 6) The Sherburne County area is in the mist of an oak wilt disease effecting mainly white oaks. Illinois is fighting an ash tree borer and it is heading our way. See attached article titled, "Prepare for an Ash Tree Invasion Worse Than Dutch Elm Disease." 7) Article titled, "Trends Shaping our State." From December 2006 Minnesota Cities. 0 W O O °x ~~ ~~ 1 ~~ ro ~i N N O ~ y m vs m -~ ~ ~o to m ~m O '~ 00 3 ~~ 70 30 '~ < ~o m 03 <m mZ v .~ -. CAD -~s ~~- -~ , rn .~ _ 00 -~ ~ y m -~ n ~o pm zm H ~ -~ N ~ ~ Cp nW ~m m v r m p m z 0 3N1~'7 ONZ64 d~ `u ,~ 3~1V ~ ~/~ .,,..;.ytix~:,Fi"aiG~vaFs.:, 0 0 0 z n ~~ 1 ~~ No -~ ~ 70 m~ m -~ ~rn ~m o~ ~~ m -~ _~ '~ ~o rn 03 <m mZ v .~ '1S Hlt~ r m i_ _ _____; l~ _ _ i ~_ ~. ^ ~ m i ~ ~ ~ r ~ i _a _ ;_~ _ i '~ -c ~ a z m ~ - ~ Z _ ~--- _ ~ Z ~ ~ ~ Z ~ j j Z c, ~ y m ~ ~ ~ a __ ~--- _. ~ r C a ~ ~ ~ ` ~ ~ m~ E .~ ~ ~ a o ~ ~ ~ ; z 1 ------~----~ ~ ~ ~ m ~. r 4 I ~ ..... ~ i '1S H15 ---_-_W ___ ____ . ~~ _ _~_ _.. S H15 __ _ _ _ i ---_ _. ~; < Z < _ _~ ~ __ a ~ ~ O a "'~ m ~ ~ r '1S H15 -~ ~ cn t _ a m -t a ~. m ~ . , • ~ ~ ~ •is ._ _.~~~._._ _. ____ z~ ~ 5_-__ __ __ ~ _~___~~ ___._ r '1S H19 ~ ,, __ _ , E ~ ~ , ------- - - ~ ~~ , ~ ~ ; ~_____. ,._,__.J_ 1 _._,,. '1S H19 ~ ~ ._ ; n _ rrr _- ----- ~ i ~ ~ ' y a J~ o -- ---- - m __. _ _ .. _. _ _ _.v~..____.__ ~____~ z '1S H11 a ~__ _ ~ < ~ m -- --- ---- a __ m '1S H18 February 6, 2007 Bryan Adams Elk River PJiunicipal Utilities 13069 Orono Parkway Elk River, MN 55330 Dear Bryan: Congratulations, I am very pleased to learn that you have reached 500 monitored accounts and will receive a price reduction to $4.50 per account. This price reduction will reflect on your March invoice. WH International Response Center (WHIRC) is committed to you and your customers and we look forward to serving you. Please feel free to contact me anytime at 763-477-3144 if you have any questions or concerns. Thanks again. The entire staff at WHIRC congratulates you on your success. Sincerely, Wendy Youngren WHIRC Business Manager WH International Response Center 6800 Electric Drive, PO Box 330, Rockford, MN 55373 763-477-4275 80~-858-7811 www.whirc.com NBFAA ~ n publication for customers COMMUNITY CALENDAR Driver Improvement ' .Program-55 Alive February 2 March 1 & 2 To pre-register, call.. {.868.234.1294. Sponsored by St. flood State University. Held at Conners Energy Connexus Energy Annual, Meeting Apr( 24 1.0:00. am. Held at{onnexus Energy. No. Why ids need it and v~nays we can. say it c~^e seminar for parents with David Wolsh Apr124 6:30 p.m. - 8:30. p.m. Held at Schwann's tenter, at the National Sports l:enter, Blaine. For more information, call 763.422.7047: Spomored by Connexus Energy. Connexus Energy 14601 Ramsey Blvd. Ramsey, MN 55303 Lobby Hours Monday -Friday 7:30 a.m. - 5 p.m. rate change for `07 Electricity prices to remain stable Here's some good news to start off your New Year. Your electric rates are not expected to increase in 2007. As a Connexus Energy customer, your electric rates are among the lowest in Minnesota. Connexus Energy's Chief Executive Officer, Rick Newland, says he is optimistic that Connexus can maintain current prices throughout 2007. "We have worked very hard to be one of the most efficient providers of electricity in the country. Even though wholesale power costs continue to increase, we are able to absorb most of the higher prices by continuing to be more efficient in our operations." «Our electric rates are among the lowest in Minnesota. ~~ ;;.. .,~,k: ,F,~ ~.~.: r ,4.; ,~ President and CEO Rick Newland While the wholesale po~~er industry can change quickly, Newland says he's optimistic about the coming year. "Some events like major storms or unexpected transmission or generation problems are uncontrollable and could have a significant impact on our region and power prices. However, our rates are expected to remain steady and we will continue to do everything we can to provide you with reliable, cost-efficient electricity." {ustomer Service Hours ~ ~ ! i~, a ~~~ Monday -Friday ~ ` n.m. - 7 p.m. Energy ef~lciency pays O~ 763.323.2650 Outage Information Building more energy-efficient homes is making a difference. Consumers across the country 763.323.2660 saved an estimated $150 million last year through energy efficiency improvements to their homes. Email While homes are becoming more efficient, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates infoC~connexusenergy.rom many households could save up to 30 percent on their energy bills through home improvement .asite projects, such as adding insulation and buying Energy Star® products. www.connexusenergy.com Gopher State One Call For more information on Energy Star, visit us online at www.connexusenergy.com. in Minneapolis area, 651.454.0002 Outside metro area,1.800.252.1166 Source: Environmental Protection Agency 0107-R SHERBURNE COUNTY ESTIMATED "2006" POPULATION FIGURES 87,322 Township only - 38,042 Cities only - 49,280 (Figures determined at a rate of 3 people per residence or multi family unit) "2006" PERMITS ISSUED IN THE TOWNSHIPS OF SHERBURNE COUNTY TOWNSHIP NEW HOMES & VALUATIONS OTHER BLDG PERMITS &VALUATIONS AG BLDGS SEPTIC REPAIRSI BALDWIN 31 $ 4,673,000 123 $ 1,703,000 1 28 BECKER 40 $ 8,201,000 167 $ 2,024,000 3 16 BIG LAKE 31 $ 6,542,000 495 $ 4,657,000 4 40 BLUE HILL 33 $ 4,754,000 52 $ 578,000 0 7 CLEAR LAKE 9 $ 1,762,000 60 $ 552,000 0 12 HAVEN 0 $ 0 37 $ 2,164,000 0 12 LIVONIA 37 $ 6,986,000 156 $ 2,265,000 1 18 ORROCK 27 $ 4,998,000 114 $ 1,302,000 0 17 LMER 7 $ 1,291,000 59 $ 819,000 0 22 SANTIAGO 9 $ 1,411,000 26 $ 721,000 0 7 TOTALS 224 $ 40,618,000 1289 $ 16,785,000 9 179 "2006" NEW HOME PERMITS /MULTI-FAMILY UNITS CITIES OF SHERBURNE COUNTY CITIES NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES MULTI-FAMILY UNITS EAST ST. CLOUD 44 0 UNITS PRINCETON 0 0 UNITS ZIMMERMAN 59 10 UNITS BECKER 26 8 UNITS CLEAR LAKE 6 0 UNITS BIG LAKE 141 6 UNITS RIVER 150 98 UNITS TOTALS 426 New Homes 122 Units m~ cx E H C7 '-] ~ m C!1 N r' O O C O b h O ~~ '~ ~ O ZC" NN NNN a s y: ~ r ~ cn A y a ~~~ . ~- o0 o, rn 000 ~ r r 'r ~ O ~ d ~ , rn rn rn C ~ ~ r r - Z ~~ ~ r y~ O ~~ ~ y ~~ ~ -HC ~r ~ y ~ ~~' ro ~ ~~ ~ ~ti~ ' O O°`~ O O ~" , ~o~ x .An ~ ° A r C ~ ~.. ~ C~ b ~ pp O ro w ~ ~i ~7 Y N O O y d ~-y ^J .T-i `~. Z] as ~ '~ y y c~ rn C1 cn p O '~ ~ a ~ cn ~O ~ ~ O ~ c c ""' soh . ~ ~ ~; oao '~ y r ~ oo b ~ ~-] y ~~~ ~ N G~~ xx 'Z7~~ N~h7 xx pO ~~ z z ~o .~, ° ~ ~_ y ~~ ~ C1 ~-] z 'b ~-C ~ b O ~ ° ~ ~ O ww~'Zy bbyo ~ ~ o ~ CrJ C17 'C O O~ C N ~ x rn C ~ A ~ Z ~ b rr y ~~~~ x _ ~~~ O ~~ N N N N N OO OO ~ O C~i ,~~ ~, Q~ O~ G1 Q~ O~ ~ ~ ~ H ~ x x ~ ~ C x x oo ~ n ~ C tbb7 . -~ ~ ~7 0o Z ~ ~ O ~ O '~ ~ y crr, ~ H ~ N G1 ~ Cd CTl ~ in ~ w C ~ O O O x O O ~_ .-~ ~ ~ rO-. ~ ~'] ~ ' V~ '~ O v ~ ~ ~ z N N N N N ~ O~ 01 ~ OOi ~ y~ H[ ~ ~ H ~~ '~ ~ C" ~ o o ° ~ O 0 0 `d O ``7 O - + ~ o , n7 ~ 0 0 ~ `" .r C t0 C~ ~ ~ am. ~ r ~' ~ ~ H b ~~ ~ am a Z O ~ ° x C /] m C /] x w N ~ ~, ~ , C ~ ~ ~ xr x N N N °° ~ N N N N N ~~ °°~ N N o O O G~ c o ~~ a ~ ~~ '~ ~~ ~~~~ p mx o m~~ C O m Z b o ~~~ b o y ~ b o by o o~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a ° ~ '° m ~ z ~ y o y r ~ _ ~ z o ~ _~ J O o ~ 00 O z ~i ~ 'C7 ~7 O ~ n z A ~- ~ `~ ~ ~ ~, ~, ~ ~ x ~ ~ ~ ^ ^ e i in er etter FORECASTS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING 1729 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20006-3938 • KiplingerForecasts.com • Vol. 84, No. 4 Dear Client: As climate and energy worries grow... forging consensus among politicians, consumers and businesses to start tackling global warming and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil... Utilities will be in the hot seat, pressured to produce more electricity while trimming fossil fuel emissions. Emissions are just part of the problem. Demand for power continues to hum, threatening to overwhelm the shaky power grid. There are barely enough big power generators and transmission lines to meet peak demand. Plug-in hybrid cars mean more stress on the system. With General Motors and others betting big on them, odds are electric autos are here to stay. If 20% of cars on the road in 2020 were plug-ins, electricity needs to power them would increase by around 5%. Clean coal plants are years away. They won't be ready until at least 2012. Ditto, more nuclear power facilities. Washington, Jan. 26, 2007 ~ ~• ~ Block on Iraq war funding Lots of criticism, but no cut Minimum wage hike .......... Business tax breaks added ................................................ . . . .... ...... Lobbying reform `,!,/ Plenty of loopholes .......................... ~"y Immigration fix ~~ But maybe not until 2008 p~ Estate tax repeal 1~! Not in the cards Oil industry tax hikes ........ .. Dead in the Senate . . ........................................................... Social Security fix Talk only, for now ~~ Fuel economy standards Increase coming C02 emissions caps Bush won't budge Investors remain jittery. Despite faster regulatory approvals, Wall Street continues to view large-scale power plant projects warily. Many utilities still have weakened credit ratings...fallout from Enron. The not-in-my-backyard syndrome plus uncertainty over the specifics of coming state and federal emissions regs are also delaying projects. In any case, there's a huge risk of blackouts for years to come. The U.S. power supply cushion, currently 15% or 16% of daily consumption, on average, is the minimum to cover possible summer spikes in usage. The power cushion will likely shrink to a measly 11% or so by mid-2011. The most vulnerable areas for power shortages: ~ ~~ The Rocky Mountain states as well as Texas soon - plus areas served by the Tenn. Valley Authority. U.S. Electricity Supply Regions with the best supply: The Deep South +~ asoo \ =-~ as well as the Northwest and New York state. aooo '~ Moving power around the country is dicey because of transmission line constraints. ssoo ua. Eiectric\ oemami Moreover, major transmission line upgrades (In bllllon kilowatt-hours) are just getting under way, nearly four years 3000 .oo ~oz ~oa ~oe ~oe •to ~tz ~ta after cascading blackouts in the Northeast Sources: Department of Energy, Kiplinger and the Midwest illuminated the need for them. The Kiplinger Letter (ISSN 1526-7130) is published weekly for $117/one year, $199Hwo years, $263tthree years Subscription inquiries: 600-544-0155 or subservices[?nMplingeccom by The Kiplinger Washington Editors, 1729 H St., NW, Washington, DC 20006-3938. EdltOrl81 inlOrRl6fi0R: Tel., 202-887-6462; Fax, 202-776-8976; POSTMASTER: Send address changes to The Kiplinger Letter, P.O. Box 3295, Harlan, IA 51593. E-mail, letters@kiplinpecmm; or Web site, Kiplingerforecasts.com r- American Water Works Association lne Autfioritr,3tiv r csoi3r ~ an Sa r ~NatF~r"' ~~ WRTER limate change is already happening. Over the past century, global average surface tempera- ture increased by approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius. Warming is expected to accelerate dur- ing the current century. The modest warming to date has not been evenly distributed over the surface of the globe. In particular, arctic areas have warmed more rapidly than other areas. Climate model simulations also suggest that future warming will tend to be more pronounced in the higher northern latitudes. As for impacts on water resources, warming over the past half century appears to be associated with reduced spring snowpacks in some of the mountainous areas of the western US. In California's Sacramento River Basin, spring runoff has been peaking earlier and there has been acentury-long downward trend in late spring and early summer flow as a proportion of total annual flow. Warmer temperatures have contributed to rising sea levels through oceanic thermohaline circulation, which transports warm water poleward increasing glacial melt. Higher sea levels have caused saltwater intrusion into freshwater estuaries and aquifers in some areas. Global climate change will likely alter the hydrologic cycle in ways that may cause substantial impacts on source water availability and water quality. The amount, intensity, and temporal distribution of pre- cipitation are likely to change. Warmer temperatures will affect the proportion of winter precipitation falling as rain or snow, how much is stored as snow and ice, and when it melts. Long-term climactic trends could trigger vegetation changes that would alter a region's water bal- ance. In forested areas, the combination of warmer temperatures and drying soils caused by earlier continued on inside W®rld continued from the cover snowmelt or longer drought periods could cause wildfires to become more frequent and extensive. Where that occurs, land cover and watershed runoff characteristics may change quickly and dramatically as wildfires reduce forest cover, thereby alter- ing the runoff response. Less dramatic but equally important changes in runoff could arise from the fact that the amount of water transpired by plants will change with changes in soil moisture availability, and plant responses to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. In addition, changes in the quantity of water percolating to groundwater storage will result in changes to aquifer levels, in base flows entering surface streams, and in seepage losses from surface water bodies to the groundwater system. There is a high level of confidence in projections of warmer temperatures over most land surfaces. Unlike their projections of precipitation change, climate models are fairly consistent in predictions of regional surface temperature. Because tempera- ture is central in determining the accumulation and melting of snow and ice, these scenarios are especially relevant to regions where snowpack or glacial runoff dominate the hydrology. With rising temperatures, it is very likely that a greater portion of winter precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, especially in areas where winter temperatures are now only slightly below freezing. An increase in rain events would increase winter runoff but result in smaller snowpack accumulations. Temperature also determines the timing of melt-off, and a warmer climate will likely result in an earlier melt season. Many regions are likely to see an increase in winter or spring flows and reduced Increased global precipitation does not necessarily translate to increases in regional water availability. A change that appears most likely is that global average pre- cipitation will increase as global temperatures rise. Evaporation will increase with warming because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. The net result is basically "what goes up, must come down" in the form of more precipitation. This moisture-holding capacity is governed by the exponential Clausius-Claperyon equation, which states that for a one degree Celsius increase in air temperature, the water-holding capac- ity of the atmosphere is increased by about seven percent. Ori average, current climate models suggest an increase of one to two percent per degree Celsius due to warming forced by carbon dioxide. However, an increase in global average precipitation does not mean that it will get wetter everywhere and in all sea- sons. Climate models tend to agree in projecting precipitation increases over high-latitude land areas, much smaller and less certain increases over equatorial regions, and decreases over some subtropical areas. Climate models differ considerably whether precipitation will increase or decrease over the middle latitudes, including the continental US. Additionally, scientists differ on how precipitation intensity and frequency might change. Some say that average precipitation will tend to be less frequent but more intense. This implies a greater incidence of flooding, as well as droughts, with their consequent adverse effects to water quality, water availability, and structural damage. However, increased global precipitation does not necessarily translate to increases in regional water availability. All climate simulations predict substantial areas where there are large decreases in runoff, despite an increase in precipitation. These different simulations produce quite different regional impacts, however, demonstrating the uncertainty related to climate projections. summer flows. In fact, there is evidence that this is already occurring. Studies document the fact that the peak spring run- off has been arriving earlier in the last few decades. One of the most important impacts of global warming is a rise in sea level. Miami-Dade County in Florida has measured a 12-inch rise in sea level since 1848. Rising sea levels impact coastal water utilities in six key ways: (1) lowland inundation and wetland displacement; (2) altered tidal range in rivers and bays; (3) changes in sedimentation patterns; (4) severe storm- surge flooding; (5) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and fresh- water aquifers; and (6) increased wind and rainfall damage in regions prone to tropical cyclones. Water utility infrastructure, such as water intakes, are particularly vulnerable to these effects of rising sea levels. Given the uncertain nature of climate impact analysis, it maybe tempting to disregard climate change in water resource planning. Rather, the uncertainty introduced by climate change emphasizes the importance of incorporating flexibility or no-regrets options in water resource planning. Next month this column will discuss utility planning and adaptations to climate change. Edited from Climate Change and Water Resources: A Primer for Municipal Water Providers by Xathleen Miller and David Yates, National Center for Atmospheric Research. Available from American Water Works Association, $95 members, $143 retail. No. 91120. _. _ __..~- n .. ~ T - - To order call 1.800.926.7337 or go to www.awwa.org/bookstore Prepare for an Ash Tree invasion Worse Than Dutch Blm Disease - by Roy Carter, Certified Arborist, Tree Trimming Department Head, Hooper Corporation The emerald ash borer (EAB), an exotic insect pest, has already killed over 15 million ash trees in the Great Lakes Region since 2002 and is on the move. Although the pest has not been detected in Wisconsin, a confirmed existence was recently found 60 miles From the state border in Illinois. The nat- ural spread of the invasive species is only about a half mile per year. However, humans are playing a role in the rapid spread. "Since EAB was first identified in Detroit, most of the three dozen or so new infesta- tions found outside the metro area have likely hitchhiked in on firewood," states Jane Cum- mings Carlson, forest health coordinator with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Emerald ash borer, a native of Asia, belongs to a group of insects known as the metallic wood-boring beetles. The adult insects are metallic green in color and are mainly found in the summer months feeding on the foliage surrounding ash trees. Typically adult beetles appear in late May or June, mate, lay eggs within the tree bark, and die in August. The life cycle continues when the eggs hatch into larvae, which feed under the bark of the tree. This causes a decrease in the flow of water and nutrients to the tree's crown. Once invaded, the ash tree starves to death within one to four years. EAB is an extreme threat to Wisconsin's natural forests and landscape. Ash trees are com- monly found in both urban and rural settings throughout the state. Recent data has estimated that Wisconsin has 717 million ash trees. The pest does not dis- criminate against the different types of ash trees in the state, putting all of them at risk. S!~~.. c. t Fortunately, both Wisconsin and Illinois have decided to put up a major fight against EAB. Federal funds are avail- able for the Department of Agriculture and other govern- ment agencies to use in the campaign. "In states where EAB has been detected, con- tainment and eradication efforts are proving to be extremely difficult and expen- sive. Keeping an area free from infestation could be eas- ier and is certainly more eco- nomical in the long run," said Cummings Carlson. Based on this experience, Wisconsin has already taken major steps towards prevention of the invasion. In 2006, the state prohibited out-of-state campers from bringing fire- wood across the state border. While prevention strategies are the first line of defense, researchers are working hard to come up with potential treatment strategies. Chemical treatment options, such as insecticides, are avail- able that focus on individual trees and can be very effective. All of the current insecticide treatments must be applied before the tree is infected to receive maximum efficacy and require application at least once per year. Currently it is not rec- ommended for homeowners to perform preventive maintenance on their ash trees until there is a known infestation in the area. Efforts are also being exerted on detection of EAB, which many feel is the key to contain- ment. Resources are being put towards public education explaining the signs and symp- toms of an invaded ash tree and the appearance of the insect to aid in the detection of a new invasion. At its current rate of move- ment, EAB will affect everyone. Due to heightened awareness and concern, new research and information about EAB is being published on a daily basis. ^ For more up-to-date information, please log onto www.dnrstate.wi.us 'and search for emerald ash borer. ABOVE: Aclose-up view of the the Emerald Ash Borer. The inseci is approximately 1/2 inch in length. THF. CHANGING FACE OS~ MINNESOTA Trends Shaping Our State The information in this article is based on a presentation from the fall Regional Meetings. The demographic data/charts are from the Office of State Demographer, unless otherwise noted. The League would like to thank the demographer's office for assistance in preparing this article. By Eric Willette innesota is a successful, dynamic state.Yet long-term demographic trends are changing the face of Minnesota, challenging our economic competitiveness and creating new demands for public services. Responses to these trends by all levels of government will affect how successful Minnesota is in the future. Population changes Minnesota's continuing growth sets it apart from its neighbors and almost all other cold-weather states. Most of the growth has been in suburban and exur- ban counties around the Twin Cities donut and in the high-amenity lakes areas in North Central Minnesota.The western part of the state has seen the slowest growth or population declines. These population trends do not stop at the Minnesota border, but continue into surrounding states (see Map 1). The state demographer projects that Minnesota will continue to grow by another one million people in the next 25 years.Three-fourths of this growth will occur in what the demographer terms the "Metroplex" running from St. Cloud to Rochester. But all regions of the state are expected to have some growth (see Map 2). If the projections hold true, the share of the state's popula- tion that is contained by the Metroplex will not increase significantly between now and 2030. In 2005, the Metroplex's share was 68 percent and projections show it at 69 percent in 2030. Aging Aging is the dominant demographic trend in Minnesota and the nation.The leading edge of the Baby Boom gen- eration began turning 60 years old this year. Over the next 25 years the num- ber of Minnesotans over age 65 will more than double from 620,230 to 1,290,610.A11 regions will experience increases in residents over 65, with the lowest rate of change in the Southwest and the highest rate of change in the Population Trends (2000-2004) 100 ,000 reau eslimale The metro doughnut is growing ' ~' gee loss Metroplex. Only the Central Lakes and Metroplex regions will see significant increases in the number of residents younger than 65 (see Map 3). In the South and Southwest regions, the only growth will be among residents over age 65. All other age groups will see a decline in population. I~ EC EMk3 F.R ZOOG 4 [VIINNES O'I~A Cli'IES ®imersity The racial and ethnic diversity of the population is increasing in both Minne- sota and the nation. Minnesotans who identified themselves as non-White and/or Hispanic ("ethnic populations") grew from 6.3 percent in 1990 to 13.3 percent in 2004. While the per- centage is higher in the Metroplex, all regions experienced significant increases in ethnic populations. Minnesota's ethnic populations are rnuch younger than the White non- Hispanic population, with the majority at or younger than child-bearing age. Graph 1 compares the age distribution of our White non-Hispanic popula- tion to our ethnic populations. Because our ethnic populations are younger and have higher birth rates, they will account for an increasing share of Minnesota's growth into the future. By 2030, 19 percent of the state popu- lation is projected to be non-White and/or Hispanic. Immigration People moving to Minnesota from other states or countries are more diverse than the incumbent population. The number of legal international immigrants to Minnesota has been gradually increasing for two decades (see Graph 2~. If immigration to Minne- sota were to continue at 2005 levels, it could account for up to one-third of the state's projected population growth over the next 25 years. While Minnesota has relied heavily on migration for its population growth, federal and state policies will largely determine what role it plays in future growth. The attention paid to illegal immigration and federal immigration policy in the last five years and the push for radical policy reforms at all levels, make predictions about future immigra- tion rates the most uncertain element of population projections. Labor force The impending retirement of large numbers of Baby Boomers and the pro- jected slow-down of growth among those under age 64 has led the demogra- pher to project that the state's labor force will grow much more slowly in coming decades (see Chart 1). From 1990-2000, Older population is not very diverse ~~sue,fMr,~„e,~,~a c~I~~.~izooo Census White alone, not Hispanic Ethnic Populations ^ o 80 to 84 years i 70 to 74 years 60 to 64 years ~ 50 to 54 years ~ F F i 40 to 44 years 30 to 34 years i 1 20 to 24 years 10 to 14 years i Under 5 years -15% -10'/0 -5% 0'/0 5% 10% 15% -15% -30% -5% OYo 5% 10% 15% Males Females Males Females Toca1:4,337,743 Tocal:5S2,336 Minnesota labor force will grow more slowly- impact on economic growth; government services CCnnnn ~~nn Smre Dcnmprnplur:a O-(jrc 011U,UW 450,000 300,000 150,000 0 lsro-so lseasa r9so-0o zaoaro zorazo zozo-so Years Minnesota's labor force grew by roughly 375,000 people.The increase between 2020 and 2030 is projected to be only about one-fourth of that. Minnesota's state and local govern- ment labor forces today are typically older than that of the private sector (see article page 8). According to data obtained from the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA), almost 37 percent of city employees are over 50 (excluding police and firefighters); and in 150 cities, at least half of the employees are over 50. Minnesota will soon have a labor shortage, and the labor market will be older, more diverse, and more dependent upon new Minnesotans. Implications These demographic trends have signifi- cant implications for cities' services, gov- ernance, and vitality. Municipal services are changing to meet the new needs of an older and more diverse population. Cities experiencing long-term popu- lation stagnation or decline are continu- ally adjusting services as their population ages. Housing and development patterns are changing as the population ages and needs change; much new housing devel- opment is high-density, pedestrian, and transit-friendly with shops and medical facilities close by. Cities are also creating new senior centers and senior program- ming to keep seniors active and involved. Cities with burgeoning ethnic popu- lations are working to overcome cultural differences in new residents' interactions with city government and expectations for city services. As the workforce ages and diversifies and the labor market tightens, cities must work to be competitive in attracting and -etaining high-quality workers. t Eric Willette is policy analysis manager with the League of Minnesota Cities. Phone: '651) 281-1245. E-mail: willette@lmnc. org. =or information about joining the LMC demographics Task Force, see page 17. DECEMItER 2l)~ fi IVI[NNESOTA CITIES