ERMUSR Education 07-09-2007Notes from APPA's Annual Conference in San Antonio TX June 25-27, 2007
Kathy Kay talked about the world view of USA, presidential candidates, and Iraq. Next President of USA
could possibility not be in the race yet. Election process is much too long compared to Europe and far to
expensive. When USA went to war in Iraq, we did not lesson to our allies and now we want their help in
bailing us out of Iraq. She offered no exit strategy for Iraq.
Dr. Jay Apt reviewed various electric wholesale market studies funded by EMRI. His conclusion is the
electric deregulation experiment has not worked or met initial expectations. The industry is now looking
at an exit strategy. Situation is very similar to Iraq, it is a hell of a mess and how do we get out of it.
Good presentation on Climate change legislation .Due to lack of Federal legislation progress, many
States are passing their now climate change legislation with many different goals and approaches. No
common consensus. The Fed's are finally realizing the complexity of this issue and legislation may not
immerge until 2008. Although science of CO2 is not definitive, "Gore won" and CO2 restrictions will
happen.
Professor John Doggett talked about China, India, and Brazil, their immerging market and how it will
affect us. China is constructing 1 coal power plant a week and 20 nuclear plants are under construction.
We are lucky to get a coal plant a year on line. China as good environmental laws on the books but they
do not enforce them. China's GNP will surpass USA by 2030+/-. China is consuming much of the world's
resources. Can mother earth sustain this type and magnitude of consumption? Democracy and free
enterprise won the cold war, now the world wants to be like the USA. How can we say they cannot.
China and USA are already in competition for materials, technology, and market share. We have a large
debt and they have a cash balance. China now provides more air pollution than the USA and India is not
far behind. The key to economic growth is electric system.
Dr Paul Portney discussed the economics of climate change legislation. Regardless of science, legislation
will happen. He is suggesting we do it slowly and do it right. Carbon tax is a better solution but CO2 cap
and trade appears the direction we are going. Set caps less than required CO2 levels to ensure a market
and real results are achieved. USA can and should increase R/D spending from current $3 billion/year to
$150 billion/year. Economy can support this level of investment. Our generation (50-60 years old, me
generation) are very greedy and have not invested in the future as previous generation. Very risk
adverse.
Dr Steve Spector discussed if the USA can achieve pre 1990 CO2 emission levels. It can be achieved with
more efficient appliances/lighting, more renewable energy, more nuclear energy more efficient coal
burning plants, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), plug in hybrid electric vehicles and
distributed energy resources. With the above technologies, costs will increase from $50/MWH to $100
MWH. If nuclear and CCS do not happen, costs will increase to $250/MWH. Nuclear storage can be
partially solved using breeder reactors. Due to the time to initiate some of these technologies, we must
start with more efficient appliances/ lighting. He is afraid when all is said and done, more will be said
than done. Methane gas may be part of the solution but Iran and Russia have the vast reserves of
Methane gas.
General Charles Bolden spoke on leadership and his experience as an astronaut He talked about the
leadership skills of courage, integrity, taking risks, loyalty, never forgetting your mission, learn from your
failures. Two of his great quotations are "USA is a great country due to our belief that tomorrow will be
better than today, and it is our moral obligation to make it so" in your sphere of influence. The final
quotation is from a 12 year old African boy dying from aids "Do what you can, with what you have, in
the time you have, in the place you are."
This conference had a good product EXPO
The San Antonio weather station not only gave the weather but also the depth of the aquifer. They pay
much more attention to their water than we do. On a final note, airline deregulation does not work
either for we drove back from Dallas due to flight delays and cancelations.
n
n
L
V
V
O
^_
N
V
a
W
0
ch
Q
N
~~
W~
~_
o-
as
V V
~a
V W
W N
W K
^~
~ „
O
N I''
O
N
O
N
r
O
N
O
r
Q
N C~
T
LA
N
O
N
a
Z
N
N
p~ a
r (j
N
L
o
rn
rn
Q r Q
YJ 0
C7 (D N N r r
(suo~ oia~aw uoi~~iw) suoissiw3 z0~
ao~oaS ~~a~aal3 'S'fl
-e
~•
~~
iil~
~I K~
~~
~~
y
~.
~\
_.
c~
n
~ m
m fa
T ~
r'O
!9 n
Q
W
-1 T
~ ~
C
H
~I'1
N ~
O
O
0
N
O_ _
O
N
O _
N
O
N
O _
W
0
N
O _
N
o _
0
CTi
x'
T
~/
O
O
~ •
•
~ ~
. •
Q
~ r ~
0 /I. ,
. •
. •
.
i r
~ •
~~
~ ~
~ ,
.
~ ,
~ ~,
~~
.,_.,.
c~
~ ~~
~. ~ ,' r .
o ~, ~.
~•
CD ~ • ~
~ ^ f
~_
h ~ ~
~
~ f
' ~
~
~
• ,• n r
~<
m
m ~.
.• ~ m
~
~
Billion Tons C02
~ N
~ U7 N C37
0
W
W Ut ~
^
^
^
^
^
~
O
~ ~
. ~ O
~ ~ ~
~ ~
NB ~
O
CD ~ ~
~ ~ ~
O O
~
.
~
4:.
O
•
i
O
0o m ~
~
~ _
D `~
~
~ ~
c~
~
o
•
~
p. j.
J
O
~
Y
m
~^
~~
O
..t
0
N
0
_.
0
V
.~
_~
~~
a
^
~~
O
~~~
rn
ti
M
r
O
y
T
i L M
W
./
~~
YI
O ~
O ~
N
TWT
V,
T
a--~
VJ
O
U
L~
~~
W
O
~ N
O
ccS
O
~ ~ ~
~ °; U U
~ .o~ ~ U U
~ U ~ C ~ V fn fA (~ RS
~ ~ .i ~ ~ ~
'
'
o aC °- ~ ~ = Z C
3 C
3 O U U
® ^ ® ® ^ ^ ^ ^
M
D[ ~
W H
~~
a?
°z
vv
oc
r 4
W W
W OC
N
e
w
0
N
0
0
N
O
O
N
O
M
O
N
O
N
O
N
_O
O
N
O
O
O
N
seal( aad 4M~I uoi~~ial
m
a
mm
~~
~R
nn
S ,o
~~
w~
~m
~ A
C
m
N ~
O
O
O
N
O_
O
N
O
N
O
N
O
W
O
N
O
N
O
CTi
O
® ~'t ® ® ~ ^
Q 11/ ~ z = ~ ~ "~
-z,
~ ~ W W n Q Q ~ ~ ~
~ .
~ ~ ~
n ~
Q
~F
"f+
CD
N can
O ~
J ~
~ ~
~_
n
N
n
C77
W
O
u.
`~`
07 ^
~ it /
cN (~
C ~
~ ~
O
`/ O
V+
rs-
N
~~
^
r
~F
O
~~
y~
O
~^
O
Trillion kWh per year
-~ N W .P C37 ~ ~I